Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh? (user search)
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  Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 75

Author Topic: Are The Democrats Toast in 2018 after Kavanaugh?  (Read 3258 times)
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,484


« on: October 09, 2018, 12:22:22 AM »

For the House, most likely not - they've maintained a consistent lead on the generic ballot large enough for them to take over this chamber.

For the Senate, maybe, but it will depend on which direction the polls move in over the next month.
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TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,484


« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2018, 01:31:55 AM »

Pretty sure if Republicans are only leading by single digits in North Dakota and Tennesse they're in for a bad night.

Don't be too optimistic now. 538 now gives Dems only a 74% chance of gaining the house, which is less than their prediction for Clinton winning in 2016. If anything I think this sort of hopeless optimism is what keeps dooming the Dems

Remember that at this point in time in 2016, 538 rated Clinton's chances of winning the presidency at over 80%, which is greater than the probably that they currently give to the Republicans retaining the Senate this year. This means that there is still plenty of time for polls to move in the Democrats' direction for the Senate or in the Republicans' direction for the House. Thus, using this logic, if we shouldn't be too optimistic about the Democrats' chances of taking over the House, we should also not be too optimistic about the Republicans' chances of retaining the Senate, either.
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