AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Webnicz]

I could still see it happening if Jeff Dewitt gets in, McCain did an excellent job (as he always does) at defining his opponents before they have a chance to do it themselves, which is how Ward got the "crazy lady" label

[Webnicz]

Sinema can win, she ran ahead of Clinton in '16 because of support for her from republicans. I have myself spoken with many republicans in the area who have nothing but praise for her for the most part. They like that she votes against Pelosi for leader, condemned Obama for the release of Bergdahl, and her right of center position on refugees.


Support from moderate republicans is why she is more electable than Greg Stanton who is an SJW who changes street names because they are offensive - that stuff does not play well statewide especially in the east valley where dems need to outreach too

Not to mention she is great at fundraising

[Webnicz]

GOOD NEWS
Sinema's moderate voting record is good for a state like ours, she could win over more Romney voters in the soccer mom demographic (there's a lot of those in the east valley)

Those who talk about her "flaws from the past" I'll say this again, she is well respected among rebulicans, her rags to riches story is inspiring and she should continue to use it

[Webnicz]

Sinema has a better chance at winning statewide than Kirkpatrick ever did

Sinema is from the PHX metro area and already has a well respected reputation in the area, even among valley republicans. And her name recognition is through the roof in the are compared to Kirkpatrick but this is obvious considering sinema is from here.

Kirkpatrick was also respected among republicans, however these were republicans from her rural district i.e Kirpatrick nearly won Navajo county while Clinton lost by 11. So when the time came, McCain was able to define/introduce her in the metro area before she could do it herself. As a result valley republicans gave into the "Obamacare Kirkpatrick" playbook pushed by McCain allies since they had no idea who she was. Sinema will not have this issue.

The Bernie crowd will LOVE the fact that Sinema has voted against Pelosi for Leader ever since she was elected, this doesn't allow the RNC to pull the "Sinema supports san fran liberal Pelosi" card that they pull on all the dems. This could be appealing to local republicans.

The Bernie crowd however could be reluctant that she has voted to fund the border wall, and opposes Syrian refugees etc

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2017/07/28/border-wall-funds-approved-house-az-delegation-split/517861001/

[Webnicz]

Ward is giving me Tea Party flashbacks.

Anyways.. confirmation of the long-standing theory that Trump will primary opponents within the Republican party. With Flake, it looks to be successful. I'm sure Flake is less popular with conservatives than he is with moderates, one of McCain's problems. A 51-40 win for John McCain is one thing; replicating that success with Jeff Flake, who is significantly less popular and less established, could seriously lead to Sen. Ward. Which, to be fair, is something I like.

A PPP poll in May 2016 - three months before the primary - showed Ward with 21% favorable and 20% unfavorable ratings. Compared to Flake, that could be enough.

Trump is also holding a rally in Arizona soon where he will probably make this more official. Ward'll be there, he'll pardon Arpaio, the whole gang.

Im not sure if this is an actual endorsement. The RNC and mcconnel(if the relationship brightens) will convince him to walk back on the comments.

As far as Arpaio goes, If trump actually pardons this man he will loose Maricopa county in 2020 thus loosing AZ, that man is so unpopular. The AZ state party already plans to tie every republican they can to the former sheriff the same way the GOP does to Pelosi(they should have done this in '16 but I assume they wanted to wait until they knew for sure he was unpopular the double digit victory confirmed it), I think it will be quite effective in turning the tides in AZ

[Webnicz]

This single tweet makes what would be a standard trump rally next week so much more significant.

[Webnicz]

Still any chance that DeWit jumps in and Trump actually ends up backing him? It would look really bad after that tweet, but he's clearly much better and saner. Last night, the Washington Times reported hat Trump was leaning towards supporting DeWit, who was still eyeing the race, but this morning seems to have changed things.

these articles came out earlier and cited sources that said trump was comping to town to endorse dewitt. It could appear trump was going to back any challenger to Flake, Dewitt might have backed out late last nigh which would explain why the tweet was so late. Trump was going to back anyone. Dewitt backed out so he moved on to plan B which was Ward

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/08/16/roberts-trump-headed-phoenix-endorse-flake-challenger/573151001/

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/16/trump-expected-endorse-challenger-jeff-flake/

might I add both articles were published before the tweet, so even if the sources weren't right about Dewitt they could be right about traveling to make an endorsement against Flake.

[Webnicz]

bye bye Flake

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I can't wait til we get a double-whammy tomorrow in Phoenix: Trump endorsing Ward in the primary and pardoning a racist sheriff who lost reelection by 13 points in a county with 60% of the state's residents.

If he does go through with this pardon it could be a serious liability for the AZGOP and trump winning AZ in 2020. The ads write themselves.
Heck even if flake wins his primary he could be tied to Arpaio and how he said nothing while trump let him walk free

[Webnicz]

If Trump actually pardons Arpaio tomorrow, it'll probably end Flake's GE chances and absolutely destroy Ward's.

[Webnicz]

things are starting to get very confusing. Politico now reporting that Ward will not not be speaking. Dewitt and Graham will be joining the president on Air Force one and at the event. Even though dewitt was stating last week he didn't want to run which led trump to praise ward.Or atlas thats how I interpreted it. Let me know what you guys think of this.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/22/trump-phoenix-arizona-jeff-flake-241878

[Webnicz]

Situation regarding trump-ward endorsement is getting hazy. Politico is reporting WH is trying to keep her out, yet trump praised her on twitter. Very very confusing. Thoughts?

[Webnicz]

No Ward endorsement? Ah well.

apparently he was told "not to name names" but he directly said "our other senator is very weak on borders" which is red meat for a Ward ad.

[Webnicz]

BREAKING NEWS: robert graham (the guy nobody knows but is considered by atlas folk as very credible) just retweeted a video of himself saying he now "is not ruling it out"

https://twitter.com/RobertSGraham/status/900945113211215881

also I can't find the article anymore but there was one earlier that stated sources from those who were at the meeting between trump & dewitt said that its understood dewitt is not going to run (Trent Franks supposedly was involved in the conversation as well)

It appears Trump want to Support Graham, not sure why he gave Ward a platform (she's gained thousands of new followers on social media) if he did not want to support her.

Graham is going to need a lot of cash just to get his Name rec up.

[Webnicz]

Also, Im having my doubts that Ward would back off if Graham entered the race, she just has too much pride. But considering her extreme loyalty to the president I could see her doing it after a talk with him.

If graham gets in(along with millions of dollars) and ward backs off, the primary is lean Graham.

I still have no idea about Flake v Ward - I want to say toss up because Kelli Ward, while she is laughed at on this site, has a huge following in Arizona which has only grown. On top of that she has Beach and Lowder from Great America Pac working with for now which I can only assume leads to deep fundraising connections

[Webnicz]

Yep, he did. As many people here were talking about,
Trump has indeed pardoned Joe Arpaio.

What bearings will this have on Arizona Republicans like Flake and Ducey? Could this affect races in other areas with sizable Latino populations?

It might affect areas with large Latino populations. Arpaio voters will likely vote for Ward. Trump-Penzone voters and Latino Republicans will likely vote for Flake, but vote for Sinema in November if Ward wins the primary.

The Arpaio pardon will likely take an effect on every statewide GO leader and especially flake, considering he's one nothing to fight back against the pardon, ****and most importantly Joe Arpaio endured flake in 2012 and Doug Ducey in 2014, there are plenty of images of flake, Ducey and Arpaio clapping on stage with each other*****

wow I hate Arpaio and think he should be rotting in jail for his crimes, but this pardon could really be the push AZ Dems need to take back the legislature and gain seats in the U.S. senate. because the left push in Maricopa county. Who knows maybe it might trickle down to Pima county and takeout McSally.

[Webnicz]

MORE BREAKING: McCain has seen the tide turning against arpaio, speaks out AGAINST the pardon. Flake should do the same if he wants to survive the general.

I expect him to do what McCain did about trump in the primary. Stay close to arpaio but after he wins the general denounce heavily.

Update: flake somewhat did, it appears ducey was the only one to stand by arpaio calling him "my friend" which is going to hurt him.

[Webnicz]

I definitely see him running for election to be Sheriff again (and loosing)

[Webnicz]

If this poll is even remotely accurate....Flake is downright screwed:

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Arizona-Senate-Executive-Summary.pdf

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This is the 3rd poll in a row showing flake loosing to Ward, YIKES.
As far as the arpaio talk, it's not going to happen, nope. But I hope he does! Sinema would win a smack down 60-40

[Webnicz]

If Flake somehow wins the primary, could he win the general?

If it were today, probably not. Nobody likes him. His unfavorables are through the roof. Not sure why some believe he would be able to win considering his unpopularity. Its hard to call the "moderate" that others are claiming will bring him to victory when he aggressively supports the mcconnell agenda

[Webnicz]

I just thought I should shed light on what could take Stanton down big time in a statewide race.
Many of you believe Sinema is flawed because she is a former sjw, an atheist and bisexual.

But in Arizona standards(and in many places), the biggest scandal is wasteful spending.
Stanton has been involved in what has become the 2nd most wasteful spending event in Arizona history(Arpaio is 1st). To be honest I am shocked the GOP hasn't taken this story to town like they should hove, but I guarantee they will if Stanton Runs for any statewide office

The city of phoenix purchased the downtown Sheraton hotel, and it became a total loss of revenue. Now the city needs to sell it, at expense of tens of millions of dollars of tax payer money. On top of that the city plans on giving tax incentives to the company who decides to purchase it.

I can already see the ads, Stanton wastes tens of millions of dollars on a failed mixed economy pan and then after that gives corporate welfare to the company that made the purchase.

A wasteful spending record is political suicide, especially in a state with a cook PVI of R+5

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2017/07/12/city-owned-sheraton-grand-phoenix-downtown-hotel-sale/430314001/

Also, Mayors of phoenix always run for statewide office. It is a line of succession. But they never win. Terry Goddard was essentially the only person to win statewide after being the mayor of phoenix, and that was in 2002. Since he has failed 2 more statewide runs. after Goddard the next mayor of phoenix to succeed is decades further down the road.

[Webnicz]

To an extent. But if the two Senate elections were happening at the same time and if Sinema was lucky enough to be facing Ward or Flake, there's a good chance that the Sinema vs. whoever race would take up most of the attention and if it turned into a rout, there's a high chance that Stanton would be helped across the finish line. Kinda like how Fred Thompson helped Frist across the line in 1994. And Gillibrand and Schumer were within the same margin of each other in 2010. Lindsey Graham only lost support off of Tim Scott from conservatives.

Is there anyone else besides Stanton who could run if McCain's seat opened up at the same time?

Friese? I'd guess it'd be one of them. I think Friese's story might play better statewide than Stanton, but getting funding might be an issue.

Friese and most local Dems would be better than someone with a fiscally irresponsible record like Stanton. The problem many Dems in the legislature face, is when they run for higher office, their opposition asks what they go done in the legislature, and do to the trifecta in AZ which doesn't allow any Dem bills to pass, the answer is usually nothing causing them to be labeled as a do nothing.

[Webnicz]

The problem many Dems in the legislature face, is when they run for higher office, their opposition asks what they go done in the legislature, and do to the trifecta in AZ which doesn't allow any Dem bills to pass, the answer is usually nothing causing them to be labeled as a do nothing.

I don't understand why that would be a unique problem to Arizona. There are plenty of states where Democrats don't have legislative power, yet still can win executive races. Same for Republicans (vice versa). The point would be to articulate why they have better ideas, and that the opposition's ideas and legislative experience is clearly not helping the state.

Not suggesting it is unique to Arizona, but out voter demographic is significantly older than most states. And in midterm elections that voter demographic just gets older. The older demographic tends to look at a candidates record, instead of their vision.

[Webnicz]

YYUUUGGGEE if true

Schumer tells Sinema he's backing her in Ariz. Senate race

Booooooooooo!

Wooohooo!!!! Matt Salmons comments are the reason why she is a strong challenger.
Although, recently I have been more reluctant to let sinema go off for a senate run because I do not want Stanton in congress, he has particular skill in mismanaging public money. Also the idea of sinema loosing her senate run causing her career to be shortened while Stanton's begins makes me uneasy because of all her potential - at the same time...this is her time

[Webnicz]

YYUUUGGGEE if true

Schumer tells Sinema he's backing her in Ariz. Senate race

Booooooooooo!

Wooohooo!!!! Matt Salmons comments are the reason why she is a strong challenger.
Although, recently I have been more reluctant to let sinema go off for a senate run because I do not want Stanton in congress, he has particular skill in mismanaging public money. Also the idea of sinema loosing her senate run causing her career to be shortened while Stanton's begins makes me uneasy because of all her potential - at the same time...this is her time

If there was ever a glaring opportunity for her to win a Senate race, it's 2018.

Without a doubt

[Webnicz]

YYUUUGGGEE if true

Schumer tells Sinema he's backing her in Ariz. Senate race

Come on Sinema, take the jump now!

Do you guys think we could see Sinema re-establishing the New Democrat Coalition and Blue Dog coalition in the senate? I have read she has established a name for herself within the house blue dogs.