Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[John Dule]

NV-Gov is officially the first race I've called wrong so far. This has been my best year for predictions yet.

[John Dule]

Latest Clark Dump got AP/NYT to call all the Las Vegas districts.

See username

[John Dule]

Since we're on the topic: One thing I've noticed over the years is that IN VERY GENERAL TERMS people in the Eastern and Western halves of the US, respectively, seem in some ways more similar to each other despite everything -- politics, culture, race, religion, North vs. South, etc. -- than they are to even people in the other half of the country who share those traits with them!

The biggest reason for this is that, again IN GENERAL, I find that people in the Eastern US tend to be more rigid, uptight, neurotic, hurried, etc. Whereas IN GENERAL, I find that people in the Western US tend to be "laidback" and "relaxed" and "casual" and take their sweet time doing everything... including counting votes, apparently!

I still can't believe you people actually wear ties.

[John Dule]

Since we're on the topic: One thing I've noticed over the years is that IN VERY GENERAL TERMS people in the Eastern and Western halves of the US, respectively, seem in some ways more similar to each other despite everything -- politics, culture, race, religion, North vs. South, etc. -- than they are to even people in the other half of the country who share those traits with them!

The biggest reason for this is that, again IN GENERAL, I find that people in the Eastern US tend to be more rigid, uptight, neurotic, hurried, etc. Whereas IN GENERAL, I find that people in the Western US tend to be "laidback" and "relaxed" and "casual" and take their sweet time doing everything... including counting votes, apparently!

I still can't believe you people actually wear ties.

Please tell me you at least wear shoes to the office.

Sure, my trusty Birkenstocks never leave my feet.

[John Dule]

@Thorongil16 and @GalenMetzger1 are rumor mongering that CO3 isn't as case closed as it appears, apparently the Frisch campaign is leaking the demographics/registration data on the remaining ballots is much better than expected.

I am almost certain they are just high on their own supply but Frisch is doing a twitter spaces at 9 am PST where he's going to make the case he is still alive.

Edit: The Frisch campaign is saying there are more mail ballots than previously believed.

At best, how many ballots are even still out in CO-3? 15,000 max? I guess it's theoretically possible that Frisch wins those by over 1,000 votes, but that would essentially require a miracle at this point.

[John Dule]

@Thorongil16 and @GalenMetzger1 are rumor mongering that CO3 isn't as case closed as it appears, apparently the Frisch campaign is leaking the demographics/registration data on the remaining ballots is much better than expected.

I am almost certain they are just high on their own supply but Frisch is doing a twitter spaces at 9 am PST where he's going to make the case he is still alive.

Edit: The Frisch campaign is saying there are more mail ballots than previously believed.

At best, how many ballots are even still out in CO-3? 15,000 max? I guess it's theoretically possible that Frisch wins those by over 1,000 votes, but that would essentially require a miracle at this point.

Winning 15000 ballots by 1000 is only winning 53.3%. That isn't particularly difficult.

However, as far as I'm aware there are only 3000 or so. He'll have to win 2:1 to make it happen. It would have to be the greatest, most perfect little dump to have ever dumped to work out for him.

Yeah, I was saying that's the absolute maximum best-case scenario given that the district is >95% reporting. Where are you getting the 3,000 figure from?

[John Dule]

Trump truthed that the election was stolen from Masters. He's also calling for a new election to be called for (in all caps).

This is going to sap the potency of his claims about the 2020 election. I don’t care how dumb Trump supporters are— being told that literally every race you lose was “rigged” has to get old after a while.

[John Dule]

Though important to note-

In the batch yesterday - the segment that was the "election day drop-offs", Ds were winning by 15%. That's even MORE than what they won in those VBM dumps previously. So while the party reg may indicate a bit more R, the election day drop-offs that we have *as of now* in the total are not any more R than the VBMs we recently got.

https://twitter.com/A_R_Stumpf/status/1591277353791262721

I just woke up. How has the vote margin itself changed?

[John Dule]

And Trump is now in full election denial mode on Arizona, calling for a new election there

Fuzzy will be a good barometer of whether these claims are resonating at all with the base, if and when he shows his face again around here.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1591525353775779840

Those 5,000 culinary ballots alone could very easily put her over the top.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1591517507164114944

Are we 100% sure she’ll make those bench marks?

If so that must be because they’re mail ballots right?

Ok, you're dooming too much. CCM is fine.

It’s almost as if he’s a troll.

Are you telling me the Culinary Union might not break for Laxalt? I thought they'd go for him 95/5.

Oh stop. I wasn’t talking about the Culinary Union - of course those are leaning CCM

You know the Dems did well when even MM is saying stuff like this.

[John Dule]

Is there a good explanation for why it's no longer over in CO-03?

Evidently, local election officials screwed up again and realized that there are approximately 8000 more ballots left in Pueblo.

Holy sh*t. Big if true.

[John Dule]

Can it be assumed that military ballots in CO-03 will break for Boebert while international ballots will overwhelmingly break for the Democrat? He would have to win something like 63% of the remaining vote to win. Doubtful, but a substantial number of international ballots could help.

[John Dule]

And that’s ball game in WA-03 methinks. Marie Perez joins the rare club of people who have picked up a seat her party’s incumbent President lost in the previous election.

How much did the redistricting affect the boundaries?

[John Dule]

Not a single inch of Pacific coastline will be represented by a Republican. BEAUTIFUL!

The fact that everyone here agrees that all coastal seats are Safe D- but I get laughed at for saying the House is Safe R- shows how much copium is consumed on this forum.

Nothing is "safe" from Dark Brandon.

[John Dule]

So while the House clearly isn't "Safe R" by any means, it's worth noting that Rollins has now fallen behind in CA-41. This is a district I had in my "Lean D" column, and if the Democrats don't win it, I don't see them being able to make up that deficit elsewhere. That would mean they'd have to win a third district that the Republicans currently lead in.

Not to rain on the parade or anything, but it's unlikely.

[John Dule]

So while the House clearly isn't "Safe R" by any means, it's worth noting that Rollins has now fallen behind in CA-41. This is a district I had in my "Lean D" column, and if the Democrats don't win it, I don't see them being able to make up that deficit elsewhere. That would mean they'd have to win a third district that the Republicans currently lead in.

Not to rain on the parade or anything, but it's unlikely.

Translation into non-copium speak: House is Safe R.

Do you know what "safe" means?

[John Dule]

America will never be a fascist country.

[John Dule]

Also, can I just say once again that voting on whether abortion should be legal is what we should've been doing all along under the Constitution? Roe was a travesty of legal reasoning, but more importantly it took this very important issue out of the hands of the voters. It emboldened the christofascist demographic while leaving women and young people complacent. People should always understand just how limited their rights actually are under our Constitution! And if they don't like that, they should do what the founding fathers intended-- get out and vote-- which is exactly what they did this week.

The events of Dobbs were a major victory for constitutional interpretation, but only a temporary victory for the Christian right. They have alienated an entire generation and millions of women across the country. This is a stake in the heart of the pro-life movement, and it was only made possible because the Supreme Court did the right thing (for the wrong reasons).

[John Dule]

In the inevitable operatic adaptation of the Trump era, the climactic final act will occur when Trump, at his daughter's wedding, learns that the Democrats won the Senate.

[John Dule]

All the users had NV going R I told them that CCM was gonna win, no sign of MT Treasure, Laxalt failed again after losing to Sisolak

Emerson and Trafalgar had LAXALT plus 5 ha

We should nominate Whitmer not Harris in 28 she won in MI Leg in 22 and Turned it D

MR. ADAM LAXALTIVE could not get the TRUMP DUMP MOVING

[John Dule]

In the inevitable operatic adaptation of the Trump era, the climactic final act will occur when Trump, at his daughter's wedding, learns that the Democrats won the Senate.

"We've known each other many years, Mitch... not once before have you asked me for my counsel. You didn't ask for my help because you didn't need a friend like me. But you come to me today, on the day my daughter is to be married, and you ask me to win the Senate for you? I say no."

[John Dule]

Why have most of the blue avatars disappeared?

As well as a certain I-CO avatar who kept defending the Republican hack polls.

Forumlurker or Calthrina?

Calthrina is a good poster who got some predictions wrong. Forumlurker is a borderline troll who should never be taken seriously.

As someone who dealt with them more than most, I disagree. Calthrina was absolutely rude and constantly not only wanted to tell me (and others) what we were feeling, but was constantly obsessed with telling me/others that we were wrong and couldn't possibly be right. Another poster who should likely have some self-reflection on how they treated others.

Calthrina is ignore worthy. If he's not being rude, he's saying something that literally makes no sense or trying to slimily both-sides an issue. If I didn't know better, I'd accuse him of being a Russian bot. And I'm honestly not sure I know better.

I find him abrasive but it's pretty clear that he's just a young man with fairly severe autism who doesn't understand social cues or humor. He can't tell when someone is disagreeing with him in good faith or when he's being "bullied," so he has adopted a permanent state of paranoia and he thinks he is constantly under attack. I don't feel any animosity towards him but I hope he gets help soon.

[John Dule]

I just KNOW it will be 218-217 in the House, 51-49 in the Senate, and 26-24 in governorships.

You just can’t make it up.

Pretty much everyone I know from my generation-- coworkers, high school friends, law students, etc-- voted this cycle. It transcended racial and socioeconomic strata. And the least cool thing you can be as a Zoomer is a pro-life Christian fundamentalist. Nick Fuentes was right: This is going to be a godless nation. And that's a good thing.

[John Dule]

God he just looks so creepy. Is that woman in the background even his wife? Ma'am, blink three times if you need help.