Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[John Dule]

What is it about being west of the Rockies that makes states so bad at counting votes?

We are a relaxed people.

[John Dule]

What is it about being west of the Rockies that makes states so bad at counting votes?

We are a relaxed people.

Hot guys too. 

You tryna slide into my DMs?

[John Dule]

By my count, the Republicans will need at least five and probably six districts in California to get their House majority. I believe they have the edge in seven-- 03, 13, 22, 23, 27, 40, and 45. I think the Democrats will have to win at least one and probably two of these to hold the House, which I don't think is plausible. They could probably pull out a win in CA-13, but after that, which of these could they reasonably win? I just don't see it happening. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Katie Porter is currently threatened in CA-47, which (if it flips) would make eight districts they have the lead in.

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

[John Dule]

By my count, the Republicans will need at least five and probably six districts in California to get their House majority. I believe they have the edge in seven-- 03, 13, 22, 23, 27, 40, and 45. I think the Democrats will have to win at least one and probably two of these to hold the House, which I don't think is plausible. They could probably pull out a win in CA-13, but after that, which of these could they reasonably win? I just don't see it happening. This isn't even mentioning the fact that Katie Porter is currently threatened in CA-47, which (if it flips) would make eight districts they have the lead in.

Funny how back in 2016 Republicans were saying "Trump won the popular vote if you exclude California," and now they need us for their majority.

Did you forgot ca01?

NYT has called that already. I'm just counting the outstanding districts.

[John Dule]

One thing that probably needs to be discussed more when analyzing elections is luck.  In 2020, Republicans won most of the very close races.  This year, it looks like Democrats are going to win the lion's share of the races with small margins.  Especially in a 435 member body, something like that is going to come down to luck.  Wasserman is actually saying that we might wind up with a GCB of close to R+4.  If that's true, it changes some of the analysis from wondering why Democrats virtually tied the election to understanding that we hit some bad luck.

Agreed, this was just bad luck and you guys should not change your strategy at all.

[John Dule]

NYT are being pansies on their House calls. They have the Democrats at only 189 seats when they could easily add in the five D-versus-D California seats. They also haven't called NM-2 or CO-8-- haven't the Republican candidates in both of those seats conceded, or am I mistaken? ME-2 should also be called. And at what point can we call AK given the combination of the special election results and the fact that Peltola is actually outperforming her special election first-round count by eight points?

On the R side, Young Kim's race and Zinke's race should have been called by now too. I also find it really hard to believe that Kermit Jones is coming back in CA-03 just based on my knowledge of the state. And AZ-02, which if I recall correctly is an R gerrymander, is 80% reporting with the Republican up eight points. I would personally put the Dems at 198 and the Republicans at 211 right now. Does anyone disagree with a substantial portion of this?

[John Dule]

NYT are being pansies on their House calls. They have the Democrats at only 189 seats when they could easily add in the five D-versus-D California seats. They also haven't called NM-2 or CO-8-- haven't the Republican candidates in both of those seats conceded, or am I mistaken? ME-2 should also be called. And at what point can we call AK given the combination of the special election results and the fact that Peltola is actually outperforming her special election first-round count by eight points?

On the R side, Young Kim's race and Zinke's race should have been called by now too. I also find it really hard to believe that Kermit Jones is coming back in CA-03 just based on my knowledge of the state. And AZ-02, which if I recall correctly is an R gerrymander, is 80% reporting with the Republican up eight points. I would personally put the Dems at 198 and the Republicans at 211 right now. Does anyone disagree with a substantial portion of this?

A candidate conceding means absolutely nothing in terms of calling races.

Alaska and Maine use ranked choice voting.

If the candidate is conceding, that means they don't see a path to victory based on whatever inside polling and race analysis they have. The campaigns are able to hyper-focus on every possible victory strategy in their particular race, whereas the pundits have to watch the whole board. If a Republican is conceding a race, that tells me they won't be coming back.

Peltola was at 39% in the first round of the special election and was up against the exact same candidates, and she still made it over 50. Now she's at 47 in the first round. Maybe putting it on the NYT board would be premature, but I'm calling it in my head.

[John Dule]

I would also say IL-17, that abhorrent gerrymander, should be called for the Democrats at this point. Ds at 199 in the John Dule House Tabulation.

[John Dule]

Currently Republicans lead in 220 seats and Democrats in 215. (This includes CO-3 as a D seat.)

What are people's thoughts on these races where Republicans currently lead? Possibilities to end up going D?
California 13 (open)
California 22 (Valadao)
Maryland 6 (Trone)
New York 22 (open)
Oregon 5 (open)

On the other hand, here are some seats led by Democrats (in the 215) that could end up R:
Arizona 1 (Schweikert)
Colorado 3 (Boebert)
California 26 (Browney) - is this one really vulnerable? Browney is up by 8 points
California 41 (Calvert)
Washington 3 (open)

To get to 218, Democrats probably need 8 of these 10, although there are a few other seats on both sides that could possibly flip. (CA-27?)

Mike Garcia declared victory already. I'm calling that 212.

[John Dule]

CCM NETS 5K AND TAKES THE LEAD IN WASHOE!

Where are you seeing this?

[John Dule]

Not that it matters that much, but the predictit market for the race now stands at 86¢ for CCM and 19¢ for Laxalt.

I am both proud of myself for standing by my NV call for this entire cycle and angry at myself for never having the guts to put money on it.

[John Dule]

Frisch (Dem) 156,746 (50.0%)
Bobo (GQP) 156,682 (50.0%)

99% Reporting

It's been holding here a while. I think it's guaranteed for a recount.

[John Dule]

In other news, the NYT's tabulation for the House stupidly counts the D-versus-D districts in the overall tabulation but still marks them as uncalled on the map. This has led to confusion for at least one person (me), so my revised prediction is an R majority with 220 seats. That was assuming at least one R upset in either an NV seat or that MD district; with their current leads it's only 219. Dems could pick off any other two districts to maintain the majority.

[John Dule]

This is quickly coming down to MD-06, CO-03, and CA-13. I think if the Dems win 2/3 of these, they have a legitimately good chance of holding the House. Not the most likely scenario IMO, but definitely plausible.

[John Dule]

Also, apparently Calvert's district now includes parts of Palm Springs, where his anti-gay stances do not play well. I saw some post on here saying Rollins was now trailing-- where did that info come from? NYT still has him up 8 points.

[John Dule]

This is quickly coming down to MD-06, CO-03, and CA-13. I think if the Dems win 2/3 of these, they have a legitimately good chance of holding the House. Not the most likely scenario IMO, but definitely plausible.

OR-05 outstanding ballots are a big wildcard too, hard for me to not think Democrats could eke a win out of there based on how things went in Oregon.

Actually, I counted wrong. Dems would have to hold all three of those seats I just mentioned to hold Rs to a 218-217 R house. After that, either OR-05 or CA-03 could put them in charge. But they would basically have to run the table in four currently R-leading seats.

Very unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. And honestly, at this point an R majority of like 219 wouldn't even be that bad for the Democrats. It would throw the GOP into chaos as they try to decide who to choose as Speaker.

[John Dule]

NYT has the Dems at 191 and Rs at 209. I'm trying to characterize the rest of the seats as best as I can. This is just a rough extrapolation, so please don't quote this post mocking me if any of this doesn't pan out. I'm trying to predict just based on our current information.

Right now, I would characterize an additional 13 seats as "more likely D than R."

1. ME-02
2. CO-08
3. WA-08
4. WA-03
5. NV-01
6. OR-04
7. CA-06
8. CA-09
9. CA-21
10. CA-26
11. CA-35
12. CA-38
13. AK-AL

I would also characterize six seats as "more likely R than D."

1. CA-22
2. CA-27
3. CA-45
4. CA-40
5. AZ-06
6. AZ-02

There are another ten seats that I would call "tossups," but Democrats lead in them.

1. NY-18
2. NV-03
3. NV-04
4. OR-06
5. CA-41
6. CA-46
7. CA-47
8. CA-49
9. AZ-04
10. AZ-01

And finally, six seats that I would call "tossups," but Republicans lead in them.

1. MD-06
2. CO-03
3. CA-13
4. NY-22
5. OR-05
6. CA-03

Factoring in my "more likely" characterizations, right now I have the Dems at 204 and the Republicans at 215. The Republicans will hit 221 if they hold those six tossup seats they currently lead in, but numerous people on this site have suggested that most (if not all) of those six could very easily swing Dem.

A D house would require the Democrats to win all ten of their tossups, plus four of the Republican tossups. That would put them at exactly 218.

[John Dule]

#9…AZ-04 is not a toss up. Stanton leads by 15 points. He will win

Mischaracterization on my part. Ds at 205.

[John Dule]

Isn't MD-6 a very Likely D?

The Republican currently leads in it, which is why I characterized it as a "current R lead" in a tossup seat. I do personally think the Democrat will win there, as well as in CA-13, another "current R lead."

[John Dule]

With the DDHQ call in NY-18, I would say the Dems are likely at 208 seats now to the Republicans' 215. The Dems basically have to run the table with those remaining tossups. They can lose exactly two. I would expect NY-22 to be one, and probably CA-03 as a second. After that, what is the most likely tipping-point seat? It might actually be CO-03, lol.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1590563696547631104

I feel so represented rn

[John Dule]

If CA-41 flips, it would be kinda funny since it was almost drawn as an R sink.

How is it an R sink if it has a bunch of Palm Springs homosexuals in it?

[John Dule]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

[John Dule]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

It encompasses all of Placer County.

[John Dule]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

It encompasses all of Placer County.

Placer County has some suburbs for Ds to improve upon iirc. Maybe that is where some of the optimism lies?

Some improvement happened in 2020 but a lot of that margin came out of the third-party vote. Trump actually improved his overall percentage (though not his margin) in Placer in 2020.