Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

I generally agree with this sentiment-- believing wartime propaganda is dumb-- but I also don't think the war comes down to just Kiev, especially if Zelensky escapes capture/death. The Ukrainian government could establish temporary operations in Lviv and organize from there. Kiev just happens to be in a really poorly defended position compared to some of Ukraine's other cities.

[John Dule]

By the time Biden makes up his mind about SWIFT, Russia and China will have a viable alternative up and running. War requires decisive action-- something he is notoriously poor at.

[John Dule]

Rather than the Winter War, I think the best historical comparison to this may end up being the Prague Spring. Similarities include:

1. A liberalizing country within the Russian sphere of influence causes trepidation among the Russian leadership.
2. Russian troops invade to occupy, likely with the goal of installing a friendly autocrat and ousting the existing government
3. Similar civilian resistance, right down to the altering of road signs.
4. Russian underestimation of the resistance they would meet, leading to a drawn-out period of violence rather than the four-day campaign they expected.

Of course, Ukraine is actually resisting with military power, but if and when their forces are overwhelmed I think this is the situation we'll be looking at.

[John Dule]

They should also sanction the oligarch's children. Most of them attend western universities and them being forced back to Russia would hurt their oligarch parents.

I would support this, provided that it isn't expanded to what the stupidest human being in the country proposed recently.

[John Dule]

I've seen a lot of posts and articles talking about how outmatched Ukraine is in terms of personnel, equipment, and funding. This CNN post, for example, discusses how Russia's military budget eclipses Ukraine's by a factor of ten to one.

However, doesn't this overlook some pretty basic logistical differences? First and most obvious, Ukraine does not have a nuclear weapons program to maintain. Also, Russia is currently maintaining other military sites across Eurasia while a fraction of its army faces literally the entire army of Ukraine. The statistics about vehicles are also pretty scary, but even so, tanks and trucks are only useful so long as you can guarantee them a steady supply of gasoline. The air force comparison is also overwhelming though, which makes it surprising that Russia hasn't been able to obtain total air control yet.

I sincerely hope I underestimated Ukraine at the outset of this war. I didn't realize they actually have one of the higher military budgets in Europe.

[John Dule]

Also, why billionaires in the US are not labeled as "ologarchs" like their US counterparts? If you consider the power amassed by the big business, the US liberal democracy might be well considered an oligarchy (not unlike Russia today)

Because our billionaires achieved their status through legitimate enterprise and innovation. Russia's oligarchs were handed huge chunks of the country's economy during the corrupt privatization and they have been suckling from the government teat ever since. There is literally no comparison.

[John Dule]

What was this? it's gone.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497807359170813955?s=20&t=Q6vVElnD...

Putin learned from the woke left that you can label just about anyone a "Nazi" and you'll have a good number of useful idiots nodding their heads dutifully.

[John Dule]

Robux are now officially worth more than Rubles.

[John Dule]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

[John Dule]

That moment when you've been wanting Europe to build more nuclear plants and contribute its fair share to NATO spending for 10 years and suddenly Putin makes it all happen in the span of a week.

[John Dule]

Went to see Joe today.

[John Dule]

What is the worst he will do, nuke DC? GO ahead Putin, do your worst!

please wait a week before saying this

[John Dule]

Kaliningrad secession talks

Expecting nothing to come of this.

[John Dule]

But how do you clean up these sort of Groups? Zelensky is apparently unwilling to show these radical Miliz their Doors!

Should Russia invade the United States to "clean up" American neo-Nazi groups?

[John Dule]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Lol, it says right there that the battalion is majority Russian.

[John Dule]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Lol, it says right there that the battalion is majority Russian.

Where?

Can't find that for some reason

"More than half of the regiment's members speak Russian and come from eastern Ukraine, including cities of Donetsk and Luhansk."

[John Dule]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Lol, it says right there that the battalion is majority Russian.

Where?

Can't find that for some reason

"More than half of the regiment's members speak Russian and come from eastern Ukraine, including cities of Donetsk and Luhansk."

Not sure how familiar you are with the area, but speaking Russian does not mean they are Russian in any way. There is a 99% chance that not a single member of that unit describes himself as Russian.

Sure, but the idea that Putin needs to attack Kiev to "denazify Ukraine" when the alleged "Nazi activity" is happening among Russian speakers in the eastern territory is completely stupid.

[John Dule]

US officials believe a huge second wave of Russian soldiers who will be able to overwhelm the Ukrainian resistance is coming according to CNN.

This was bound to happen at some point. I guess we just have to wish that the resistance is able to keep some territory to operate out of and that the Ukrainians and the rest of the world can continue to make this as costly on Russia as possible.

The numbers are overwhelming, but the logistics are still pretty daunting for Russia. A lot of troops and tanks won't do much good if they're low on food, sleep, and gas. Hopefully the spring thaw will bog the Russians down in the mud, and roads will be blocked by destroyed columns of armored vehicles.

[John Dule]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

Why are you on an election discussion website when you clearly don't think elections should exist?

[John Dule]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

Why are you on an election discussion website when you clearly don't think elections should exist?

It's not an issue of censorship versus freedom. Besides, this forum is not averse to censorship in concept, after all it cheered feverishly when Trump was banned from Twitter and Facebook which may have been a more effective act of censorship than many  governments are capable. It's an issue of national security and not allowing critical media of communication to be controlled by foreign companies that may turn hostile. Facebook and Twitter are clearly enemies of Russia right now, that's their right as a private company but then Russia shouldn't be tolerating an enemy operating in their country during wartime, or anytime for that matter.

There is an obvious difference between private censorship and state censorship. For instance, I might think that you should be permanently banned from this site because you are a fascist useful idiot, an authoritarian stooge, a Wumao 50 cent shill, a gutless bloodthirsty keyboard warrior, and worst of all a Jerseyite. Nevertheless, I would still think you should be free to say what you want in the public sphere though. Hypothetically.

[John Dule]

Again, this makes no sense. I'm not Russian. I'm basically watching a football game here.

If your emotional investment in this conflict is comparable to a football game, then you may have a serious psychological problem. You are capable of empathy, right?

No he is not. Authoritarianism warps the mind.

[John Dule]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

No, actually.

[John Dule]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

No, actually.

Not everyone has the same values as you, Dule.

Exactly, which is why I don't have the right to impose my values on them. Hence why authoritarianism is inherently wrong.

[John Dule]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

No, actually.

Not everyone has the same values as you, Dule.

Exactly, which is why I don't have the right to impose my values on them. Hence why authoritarianism is inherently wrong.

Except some think imposing values on others isn’t inherently wrong. Which is a valid position to take.

Hypocrisy is never valid, and authoritarianism is inherently hypocritical.

[John Dule]

It’s not, really. One might say it’s not really self-aware. But there’s nothing inherently hypocritical about being authoritarian. And either way, an allegation of hypocrisy is an attack on behavior, not on idealogy.

The only valid form of political authority is described in Hobbes' Leviathan: "Made by a covenant of every man with every man, in such a manner as if every man should say to all others 'I authorize and give up my right of governing myself to this man, or to this assembly of men, on this condition, that thou give up thy right to him, and authorize all his actions in like manner."

A person is a hypocrite if he expects others to surrender their right of self-governance without doing the same himself. For example, if I believe that you ought to forfeit your religious liberty but I also believe I ought to retain my own, I am a hypocrite. The only non-hypocritical form of vesting authority in a sovereign is if every individual voluntarily surrenders the same rights (for example, the right to kill). But "authoritarianism" in modern terms necessitates the preferential treatment of some groups at the expense of others. A Putinist believes that they should be free to voice their own beliefs while others should not. That is the definition of hypocrisy.