Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[Kamala]

Kasich/Strickland

I just want to pretend this is a presidential ticket.

[Kamala]

I tend to forget Delaware exists.

you made Uncle Joe sad!

[Kamala]

#WeWantWarsi

I thought it was "#WeWantWars!"

[Kamala]

So, to understand how devastating the collapse of the "Vet Vote" (Heavily Rural Whites in the counties covered, it is illustrative to go back to '08 and look at the swings between '08 and '16....

AL: Dale-- 13.2% Vet--'16: (24 D- 74 R);  '08: (27 D- 72 R)  +5% R Swing (+2% Pub)
AZ: Cochise- 14.6% Vet-- '16: (35 D- 56 R); '08: (39 D- 59 R) +1% R Swing (-3% Pub)
AR: Marion- 13.6% Vet--'16: (20 D- 75 R); '08: (33 D- 63 R)   +25% R Swing (+12% Pub)
CA: Sierra- 15.2% Vet---  '16: (32 D- 56 R); '08: (37 D- 58 R)    +3% R Swing (-2% Pub)
CO: Custer- 16.3% Vet--  '16: (26 D- 67 R); '08: (35 D- 64 R)    +12% R Swing (+3% Pub)
CT: New London- 9.0% Vet- '16: (50* D- 44 R); '08: (60 D- 39 R)  +15% R Swing (+5% Pub)
DE: Kent- 11.0% Vet- '16: (45 D- 50_R): '08: (54 D- 45 R)   +14% R Swing  (+5% Pub)
FL: Sumter- 16.0% Vet-- '16: (29 D- 68 R); '08(36 D- 63 R)   +12% R Swing (+5% Pub)
GA: Liberty- 15.8% Vet- '16: (59 D- 38 R); '08 (64 D- 36 R)   +7% R Swing   (+2% Pub)
HI: Honolulu- 8.1% Vet- '16: (61 D- 32 R); '08: (70 D- 29 R)   +12% R Swing (+3% Pub)
ID: Elmore- 17.9% Vet-  '16: (21 D- 68 R); '08: (31 D- 67 R)    +11% R Swing (+1% Pub)
IL: St. Clair- 10.5% Vet--  '16: (50* D- 44 R); '08: (60 D- 38 R)    +16% R Swing (+6% Pub)
IN: Brown- 11.5% Vet- '16: (32 D- 63 R); '08: (48 D- 50*  R)   +29% R Swing  (+13% Pub)
IA: Lee-- 9.7% Vet--- '16: (38 D- 55 R); '08: (57 D- 41 R)         +33% R Swing (+16% Pub)
KS: Morris- 13.5% Vet- '16: (23 D- 69 R); '08: (32 D- 66 R)      +12% R Swing (+3% Pub)
KY: Meade- 13.9% Vet- '16: (25 D- 71 R); '08: (39 D- 60 R)       +25% R Swing (+11% Pub)
LA: Vernon- 13.2% Vet-- '16: (16 D- 81 R); '08: (22 D- 76 R)       +11% R Swing (+5% Pub)
ME: Piscataquis- 11.5% Vet- '16: (34 D- 59 R); '08: (47 D- 51 R)    +21% R Swing (+8% Pub)
MD: St Mary's- 10.5% Vet--- '16: (42 D- 54 R); '08: (43 D- 56 R)  +1% D Swing  (-2% Pub)
MA: Barnstable- 9.4% Vet-'16: (53 D- 40 R); '08: (56 D- 42 R)      +1% D Swing  (-2% Pub)
MI: Keweenaw- 16.1% Vet- '16: (37 D- 57 R); '08: (43 D- 54 R)      +9% R Swing (+3% Pub)
MN: Aitkin- 12.8% Vet-  '16: (34 D- 60 R); '08: (49 D- 48 R)           +27% R Swing (+12% Pub)
MS: Harrison- 10.6% Vet- '16: (33 D- 64 R); '08: (37 D- 63 R)        +5% R Swing  (-1% Pub)
MO: Pulaski- 13.6% Vet-- '16:(22 D-73 R); '08:(35 D-64 R)       +25% R Swing      (+8% Pub)
MT: Mineral- 14.8% Vet-- '16: (26 D- 66 R); '08: (42 D- 53 R)       +33% R Swing (+13% Pub)
NE: Hayes- 13.6% Vet-'16: (6 D- 92 R); '08: (15 D- 84 R)             +17% R Swing (+8% Pub)
NV: Mineral- 16.1% Vet-- '16: (32 D- 59 R); '08: (47 D- 49 R)   +25% R Swing  (+10% Pub)
NH: Carroll- 11.0% Vet-- '16: (44 D- 49 R); '08: (52 D- 46 R)        +11% R Swing (+3% Pub)
NJ: Cape May- 8.4% Vet-'16: (38 D- 58 R); '08: (45 D- 54 R)        +11% R Swing (+4% Pub)
NM: Sierra- 16.4% Vet-- '16: (31 D- 58 R); '08: (43 D- 55 R)       +15% R Swing  (+3% Pub)
NY: Hamilton- 13.0% Vet- '16: (29 D- 64 R); '08: (36 D- 63 R)        +8% R Swing (+1% Pub)
NC: Camden- 14.1% Vet- '16: (25 D- 71 R); '08: (33 D- 65 R)     +14% R Swing   (+6% Pub)
ND: Griggs- 10.1% Vet- '16: (24 D- 67 R); '08: (46 D- 52 R)         +31% R Swing (+15% Pub)
OH: Greene- 10.2% Vet- (Wright-Pat AFB)- '16: (35 D- 59 R); '12: (39 D- 60 R)   ( +3% Pub)
OK:Comanche- 12.9% Vet- '16: (35 D- 59 R); '08: (41 D- 59 R)      +6% R Swing  +0% Swing
OR: Curry- 14.6% Vet---'16: (34 D- 57 R)- '08: (42 D- 54 R)           +11% R Swing (+3% Pub)
PA: Sullivan- 12.6% Vet-- '16: (24 D- 73 R)- '08: (39 D- 59 R)         +29% R Swing (+14% Pub)
RI: Newport- 9.6% Vet-- '16: (56 D- 37 R); '08: (61 D- 37 R)       +5% R Swing  +0% Swing
SC: Sumter- 11.3% Vet-- '16: (55 D- 43 R)- '08: (57 D- 42 R)      +3% R Swing  (-1% Pub)
SD: Fall River- 14.1% Vet--- '16: (23 D- 70 R); '08: (35 D- 62R)      +20% R Swing (+8% Pub)
TN: Montgomery- 12.9% Vet- - '16: (38 D- 56 R); '08: (45 D-53 R)  +10% R Swing (+3% Pub)
TX: Lampasas- 15.3% Vet- - '16: (18 D- 78 R); '08: (25 D- 74 R)     +11% R Swing (+4% Pub)
UT- Piute- 12.1% Vet- '16: (6 D- 86 R); '08: (18 D- 79 R)                  +19% R Swing (+7% Pub)
VT- Essex- 10.6% Vet-- '16: (35 D- 51 R); '08: (56 D- 41 R)              +31% R Swing (+10% Pub)
VA- York Co- 14.4% Vet-- '16: (38 D- 55 R); '08: (40 D-59 R)            +2% D Swing  (-4% Pub)
WA-Island- 15.6% Vet-- '16: (47 D- 42 R)- '08: (52 D- 46 R)             +1% Swing      (-4% Pub)
WV-Greenbrier- 10.0% Vet-'16: (26 D- 67 R); '08: (43 D-55 R)           +29% R Swing (+12% Pub)
WI- Florence- 12.4% Vet-- '16: (25 D- 71 R); '08(42 D- 56 R)    +32% R Swing  (+15% Pub)
WY- Johnson- 11.8% Vet- - '16: (14 D- 79 R)- '08: (21 D- 77 R)           +4% R Swing (+2% Pub)

What do these numbers tell us when looking at the swings between '08 and '16, and the increase % of the total 'Pub Share of the Vote between this time frame?

1.) Most of these Vet Counties tend to be older and Whiter, simply because population distribution between Metro areas and Rural areas, however this is key when looking at "WWC Swings" between '08 and '12....

2.) The "Vet Counties" appear to have swung particularly hard towards Trump in certain regions of the Country, and against the Democratic Party between '08 and '12, and this trend is most observable in the key swing regions of the Midwest....

3.) The greatest swings were in Iowa (+33% R, and +16 R raw % increase from '08), Wisconsin (+32% R, and +15% R raw increase from '08).... If we scan around we see some pretty crazy numbers from Indiana (+29% R Swing), ND (+31% R Swing), MN (+27% R Swing), MO (+25% R Swing)....

4.) Even if we look at PA (+29% R Swing), or creep up to Northern Maine (+21% R Swing), and we are not even talking about some major swings in KY and AR, let alone even looking at what's going on in MT and NV....

5.) It is particularly interesting to look at areas where the Republican nominee dropped support between '08 & '12 (AZ, CA, MD, MA, MS (?), SC, VA, WA...

Additionally, we have counties with large % of vets with no 'Pub gain (OK, RI)...

On top of that counties with 'Pub % increase <5%.... (AL, CO, GA, HI, ID, KS, MI, NH, NJ, NY, NM, OH, OR, TN, TX, WY)....

6.) I think HRC really missed the boat on the targeted Trump message regarding older Vets.... in many smaller and rural communities Vets need to commute hours to go to the nearest VA Hospital. Additionally, you had the VA scandals under George W, minimal perceived improved under the Obama Administration, and a ton of rural older Vets feeling they are getting the shaft.... It will be interesting to watch all of these counties in '20.

7.) There is no question in my mind that Trump won PA and WI, mainly as a result of the older White Vet Vote....

8.) So, it looks pretty clear that there was a major WWC Vet Swing between '08 and '16---- Was Trump simply a reset from W. '04 and Obama the outlier?

9.) It doesn't appear that all hope is lost for a Democratic Presidential Candidate in these counties with the highest % of Vets.... 3rd Party support skyrocketed in '16, and in many cases it appears that these were military veterans that weren't big fans of Trump, even in many predominately "White" Veteran communities....

10.) Since many of these counties also have active military bases, in theory it should be possible to pull numbers for "active duty" vs rest of county to see if there is a variance there....

[Kamala]

Fiorina I guess.

In addition to being racist, Ingraham seems to be misogynist against herself.

[Kamala]

The word "liberal" is uncool, which of course is why I am willing to call myself a "liberal" but not a "progressive".

[Kamala]

If I win this election, I will sponsor a bill requiring a new season of Quantum Leap to air on TV once again.
Peebs, I think you know who's better on this issue.

[Kamala]

my dad won 1 term in the Maryland state house.

[Kamala]

Kamala
Peebs
Roboblox

I'm flattered

[Kamala]

re-elect the Conservative Government of the Austro-Hungarian-Yugoslavian Empire.

[Kamala]

Albania called, they don't want Martin Shkreli back.

[Kamala]

lean HP

[Kamala]

Anticipating so many alt-right tears on this thread.

I have no sympathy for people whose political position is to threaten the wellness and livelihood of over 20 million Americans.

[Kamala]

Can we send him to North Korea?

I don't like to pick fights, but...

Oh, screw it, you're a disgusting, classless pig. Onto ignore you go.

[Kamala]

Eugenics, once again, is generally considered to be a bad thing.

[Kamala]

Not really funny, but:

Today at 03:13:08 pm
in Re: Trump plans to decla...
by Acting Southern Delegate The Saint

OH GOD OH GOD OH GOD *runs away screaming*

[Kamala]

Demographics is destiny, and if the GOP doesn't change its tune, it's not winning the White House any time soon.

This sounds like a very 2013-esque comment to make about the GOP.

[Kamala]

Extreme Patriot. Colonialism and monarchism are destructive.

[Kamala]

Government is my god.

[Kamala]

Read somewhere that counting all provisionals can take until December, so... get to waiting.

Joke country.

[Kamala]

I might get some cheap $7 champagne. Why not?

Because it probably tastes like Listerine?

Listerine tastes great, you cray cray.

[Kamala]

These are cool!

[Kamala]

PA-17 (Home)

[Kamala]

Black if I have it with a donut or pastry, otherwise cream + 2 sugars

I'd kill for a bear claw.