2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Kamala]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/935716132174123008

Mike Turner a "decent bet" to retire.

OH-10 is R+4.

I mean, I'll defer to Ohio Dems here, but this seems like a decent prospect - a fairly urbanish district, I believe it trended towards Clinton (), Mike Turner had a fairly unique appeal here being the Mayor of Dayton for a while, very popular for a long time. I don't know the benches in this area well, I assume the Dems are gonna have a lot of no names.

I hope Whaley drops from running for governor to this race

[Kamala]

Kansas Dem Andrea Ramsey, accused of sexual harassment, will drop out of US House race

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That's too bad, if only male candidates/elected officials were more willing to step aside like her. Looking at you, Kihuen..

Why must he if he doesn't feel guilty? Try to primary him - that's your right, but you can't DEMAND his resignation. It all becomes more and more idiotic...

Finally someone agrees with me, why is their no more “innocent until proven guilty” in this country. Whenever people feel they can get a political hit on someone they make up crap and throw it at them and everyone is Spose to believe them. Well I for one refuse to believe anyone’s Outlandish claims unless their backed up by irrefutable evidence because that’s how Democratic society’s are spose to function. Their are not spose to be any god damn Salem which trials or Mccarthyist red scares anymore that crap is spose to be relagated to history books and third world countries today.

Yeah all those inappropriate text messages are totally crap and faked

[Kamala]

Thanks for detailing the thread. Stick to mathematics, smolt.

[Kamala]

Thanks for detailing the thread. Stick to mathematics, smolt.

No, madam. I said that i ignore all advices, except from the most clever people. You are not one of them.

I’m absolutely crushed.

[Kamala]

For someone with a sense of humour you surely weren't able to handle me making fun of you. You also didn't seem to understand my point, in spite of all your genius. 

Voter: Congressman X shouldn't be in Congress
Smoltchanov: You cannot dictate who should be in Congress, only voters can decide that!

Like, if you don't understand how dumb your point is I'm not sure I could explain it to you.

(And I have a PhD too, well I have a PhD, let's put it that way. And I didn't curse you out like a 14-year old trying to look cool either so I must be the biggest genius in human history by your standards. You should probably sit down and listen to me)

Lol, maybe, but I know a fellow teen when I see one. You sir, act like one.

Ah, yes, Gustaf, the teen who has been registered here for 14 years.

[Kamala]

We got any recruits for OH-06?

I think Strickland, or Johnson, or any Tim Ryan type might be able to flip it.

lol.

I don't think this seat is going to be competitive any time soon. However, if Democrats were going to be competitive, I think Lou Gentile would be a good candidate. Too bad he lost his state senate seat.

Jason Wilson would probably not be a terrible candidate either.

[Kamala]

Also to consider: since Democrats are more compacted into high-D PVI districts, there’s only a limited number of more votes they can squeeze of them. Thus, you could imagine that the difference between a popular vote of D+16 and D+8 would be even more massive than thought. There’s not a lot more votes that Ds could get in New York City, for example, since a lot of those areas already vote 80-20 D-R. So the increased margin has to come from more swingy districts, or from safe R districts.

[Kamala]

Democrats 50.1%
Republicans 37.3%

I'd bet a thousand dollars they're below 48 by the 10th of January due to Tax Reform Bump.

I'm absolutely willing to take this wager. Pollsters will slow down polling during Christmas/New Year's anyway. Do you have Venmo?

The bet was between me and myself unfortunately.

Interesting. Hmm.

To be more specific, it was between me and the voice "Rick" in my head. Other voices are more conservative, Rick is center-left.

I assume “King Lear” is one of those voices?

[Kamala]

Are Dennis Ross and Vern Buchanan vulnerable? I assume they’re on the third tier of competitive Florida races for Democrats (First being Curbelo and the open seat, then Mast and Diaz-Balart), and DDHQ gives Dems a hair above 30% of winning them.

How are the Democratic candidates looking?

[Kamala]

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She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

[Kamala]

Democrat Congressional Candidate in Arkansas raises 135K from individuals

French Hill is more vulnerable than he looks. He kept it with ten points in 2014 of all years.

[Kamala]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

Yep. As I said, Putin will not let the United Russia party lose a seat in Congress without a fight.

Our Home is Newport Beach

Ah, Rorhabacher’s is the Arrested Development district. Good to know.

[Kamala]

I would actually have thought that some older D senators would’ve retired this year, such as Carper, Cardin, Hirono,  and Feinstein, since it would be guaranteed that their seats would be won by Democrats in such a D-leaning year. Then the next election cycle, which we don’t know how it will Lean, they would be held by incumbents and be less vulnerable than an open seat situation.

I’m not surprised though, since politicians are entirely self-interested creatures. They wouldn’t do something for the party if it requires them to sacrifice something.