Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Former President tack50]

The coming months will be interesting for the PNV. I expect a rapprochement between the PNV and PP and I would not rule out that they will vote NO to the state budget.

While PNV is slightly unhappy with the budget and the electricity prices decree, there is no way they vote down the budget. If the budget gets voted down, ERC will be the most likely party to do so; but I think Sanchez will manage to pass the budget

[Former President tack50]

What is the PCE stance on Catalonia/secessionism and if they form a broad front, what parties would they form it with?

Basically the same as Podemos. PCE might be independent nominally, but in practice they'll never run independently of Podemos (or IU for that matter). Especially not nationally.

The so-called broad front is more publicity than anyone else, I doubt any electorally relevant parties join other than (at best): Mas Pais/Mas Madrid, the Teresa Rodriguez led Andalusian regionalists and possibly Compromis

[Former President tack50]

Mañueco had a very strange way to announce the new election. Using super dramatic words like "treason" and talking about the consequences of betrayal… could the hyperbolics backfire or is he safe to be re-elected?

They might backfire (unlike in Madrid, everyone seems to be directly blaming PP for an unnecessary election), but Castille-Leon is so conservative and so heavily PP leaning that he should be safe regardless

Only thing that could stop that would be if the rural party España Vaciada manages to organize well in a very short amount of time (CyL is also the most rural region of Spain alongside Castille-La Mancha) and on top of that gets a very strong result while mostly taking PP voters. Not a very likely scenario

[Former President tack50]

The "final polls" seem to me like this is going to be a boring election. Either that or all polls are wrong and we'll be in for a surprise during the count.

[Former President tack50]

I know it is all from rural areas, but 8% is significant enough. Seems like a small PP overperformance, PSOE underperforming, Vox underperforming.

Biggest losers of the night perhaps might be the "Empty Spain" outside of Soria (they are getting a great result in Soria where they have a good organization, but terrible organization elsewhere), Cs (does not get a seat) and UP (does not get any seats, which would be a massive blow to them; though UP is also probably the party that will grow the most as more rural votes come in)

[Former President tack50]

Honestly I feel the entire space "to the left of PSOE" looks completely lost and directionless to me. I am sure they will all eventually coalesce into some sort of coalition but the constant namechanges, minor infighting and alliances I don't think are helping them.

In any case, I guess just another reason as to why Feijoo will be Spain's next PM (though who knows, at one point I thought Casado was guaranteed to become PM)

[Former President tack50]

Well given the distribution of turnout, with turnout up inland and stagnant on the coast, there are 3 possibilities imo:

1) The left doing surprisingly well, with the traditional rural left wing base unexpectedly turning out while the sat out 2018
2) Big migration of traditionall left wing rural voters from PSOE to PP, particularly among the old
3) The "irrelevant" option, where turnout is completely divorced from the actual results (an example of this is Catalonia 2017, where turnout rose more in unionist areas, but it was because of the secessionist minority turning out there)

In any case as always I would not read much into turnout reports other than "turnout will be higher than 2018" and posibly "turnout will be higher than expected"

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the maps from Eldiario and uh, something insane I've noticed is that the pro-right trend is much, much stronger in rural areas than in the cities. Most of the provincial capitals are seeing very small right wing swings, but the rural areas are easily seeing swings of +15% for the right.

In fact overall, other than in Huelva province, the rural areas seem to be basically just as conservative as the cities (maaybe they are still a couple points left wing, but not by much, if at all)

I suppose something to ponder if you believe in #globaltrends

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the result as a whole, it's basically "everyone but PP loses".

PP gets an overall majority and a huge mandate. Idk to what extent it will transfer to Feijoo nationally, but they are the clear winners of the election.

PSOE goes down slightly. However of the losers, they are arguably the smallest loser.

Vox is one of the bigger losers as they are barely go up in a very favourable region. This might just be a small setback or it might be "the beginning of the end" for their surge

The 2 parties "to the left of PSOE" have a hard read. AA does get in but it's a horrible result that barely gives them any room to grow. On the internal fights within that space I suppose the thesis of Yolanda Díaz get reinforced and that unity for that space is an absolute must, with her winning the internal fight. Overall it's a bad result for said space though.

Finally Cs doesn't get in and continues their fall into irrelevance. Idk if the party can be saved at this point, but if it survives, it will barely have anything. It's hard for me to imagine anything more than a single seat for them

[Former President tack50]

Apparently I live in a country now where the Castillian right wing heartland of Castille-Leon is progressive while the landless peasants of Andalucia are hardline conservatives.

The result for the right is better in Andalucia than even in Ayuso's landslide in Madrid!

[Former President tack50]

I'm not a fan of Sanchéz at all, but at least he's reacting to the raising cost of living and doing something about it unlike his neighbor country, which the government says, over and over again, that it cannot reduce VAT on several products without EU permition, while Spain is doing that without any worries. The difference in gas prices is around 30-40 cents between Portugal and Spain, and we still pay 23% of VAT on electricity, with reduced taxes of 6% and 13% for small outputs, which in some cases would only let a few items work, lol.

Watermelons and cherries prices vary, of course, between places, but from what I've seen when I go out shooping, cherries are around 6 euros per kilo and watermelons cost at around 9 euros per unit. Of course, much more expensive here as we earn half of what the Spanish earn.

Ironically, gasoline prices in Spain have now tied Portugal's which is historically an anomally as we used to have lower prices.

[Former President tack50]

I am very late, but here is my take and prediction for the regional elections for Spain.

Overview
To be honest, it seems to me like most regions should be "up for grabs". There are a handful of safe ones, but for the most part either the left or the right can win.

After two very successful election years in 2015 and 2019, the left is really exclusively playing defence, with no good pickup opportunities at all (with one tiny exception). As for each individual region, here's my take

Aragón
Javier Lambán is one of the big 3 conservative PSOE premiers, alongside Emiliano-García Page (Castille-La Mancha) and Guillermo Fernández Vara (Extremadura); despite Aragon not being a super conservative region itself.

Polling seems to suggest a very tight race with the España Vaciada movement (basically Teruel Existe, the rural regionalists) being kingmakers. From the declarations from leader Tomás Guitarte, he will talk to the right, but clearly prefers a left wing government. So I think PSOE will narrowly get to hold this with a Frankenstein coalition, but it's not entirely clear.

Also the big story (and very underrated) is the likely disappearance of the historical Aragon Regionalist Party (PAR); a centre-right regionalist party. It seems that supporting the current left wing government in order not to allow Vox to come in has hurt them in the end; though it could also just be Teruel Existe basically eating up their entire electorate.

Rating: Lean PSOE

Asturias

Arguably the most left of centre "culturally Castillian" region; PSOE should cruise to an easy first place here, with the left not having any issues to form a government. I am also not aware of much from premier Adrián Barbón, whether good or bad.

It might be tight, but the left should win this unless they are doing really poorly nationally and polls miss badly

Rating: Safe PSOE

Balearic Islands

Premier Francina Armengol is arguably the most progressive PSOE premier, and certainly one of the more "nationalist" ones alongside Navarra premier Maria Chivite. Here it seems that polls consistently put PP-Vox just one or two seats shy of a majority, or at a majority. So they could win one, but I would not say they are favoured.

Kingmakers would be the centre-right nationalists from PI. However, I have little doubt that they will side with the left. Yes they may be centre-right, but their predecessor party of UM consistently sided with the left when PP lost a majority in 1999 and 2007, so they haven't backed PP at the regional level in decades. And that was when Vox didn't exist, which makes any sort of regionalist support extremely hard to get.

It's not impossible for the right to win this, but they are clearly not favoured

Rating: Likely PSOE

Canary Islands

My home region, and one where it seems premier Ángel Victor Torres is quite popular, but this doesn't seem to be quite enough for him to easily cruise for reelection. This might be because of the "Tito Berni" corruption scandal mentioned earlier. PSOE was actually very favoured until then so I think it certainly hurt them.

However his opponents aren't exactly running amazing campaigns either, with Fernando Clavijo running against him despite also being involved in corruption scandals and PP running the fairly low profile Manuel Dominguez.

From a bloc perspective, the result won't matter much, as it will come down to whether Vox makes it into parliament (which is very unlikely and don't think will happen, but not impossible) and what the local cacique from La Gomera, Casimiro Curbelo, decides to do.

The Canary Islands are notoriously hard to poll but it seems that the main story will come down to which of PP and CC comes ahead. I personally think it will be CC in terms of seats at the electoral system is still very favourable to them, but wouldn't be surprised if PP beat them.

Then, the real battle for the premiership begins, also known as "who can sell Casimiro Curbelo more stuff". Personally I think PSOE is favoured as they have slightly more flexibility with coalition-building (a PSOE-CC or even a PSOE-PP coalition would not be inconcievable); and incumbency gives them a bit of a boost. La Gomera will probably get golden plated roads in the process, and everyone will be happy

In any case, this is an election that won't be solved at the ballot box, but rather in the later coalition-building meetings.

Ftr, if Vox did make it, things ironically become worse for the right, as CC will not work with them under any circumstances by the way, so add that to the list of reasons to have the left ahead.

Rating: Lean PSOE

Cantabria

Uber-populist and very popular premier Miguel Ángel Revilla from the regionalist PRC has been leading the region for quite a while now. However it seems he has lost a ton of momentum since the last election and is not favoured at all to win. However, he does not need to come in first, just for the left to add up. It seems this will come down to whether UP makes the threshold, as IU and Podemos went separately last time. If they do, he probably gets another term in office.

Personally, I will actually go against polling here and say they don't make the threshold! They got 5% in 2019 combined, and that space in the left to me it seems like it's going down, not up, given the infighting.

So I will give the advantage to PP here in spite of the reasonably good polling for the incumbent. Worth noting that a majority for the right with UP in is not impossible, just unlikely.

Also LMAO at "Leader since 1983" for Revilla. I genuinely wonder when will he retire.

Rating: Lean PP (flip)

Castille-La Mancha

One of the traditionally left-wing regions of Spain that has moved very far to the right in general elections but keeps electing PSOE at the local level. With a massive ton of salt, maybe one can draw comparisons to US Southern Democrats back in the day?

Anyways Emiliano García Page is the most conservative of the 3 conservative PSOE premiers, the one that fights publically with Sanchez more and what not. It seems his strategy of keeping a distance to him might work at keeping PSOE high, but seems like he will fall just short in the end. Polling puts him at literally just 1 seat away from the majority. Will he get it? I think not sadly

Worth noting that Castille-La Mancha uses an absolutely deranged electoral system where you de facto need like 9% to make it in. They have 33 seats in parliament, split across their 5 provinces. Worst electoral system in the country; and a more sensible one would mean UP (polling at 6.5%) would make it in and prop Page up.

Rating: Lean PP (flip)

Extremadura

Guillermo Fernández Vara is the unofficial leader of the 3 conservative PSOE premiers. This is in any case a more rural region* and interestingly, that makes it more left-wing (at least electorally which is what matters here).

It seems that those few extra points the left will get, plus the fact that Extremadura actually has a sensible electoral system that meanst UP will make it in will make the difference. Vara will lose his majority, but keep the premiership through a deal with UP. It will be hard but I think he will make it through.

Rating: Lean PSOE

La Rioja

This was basically where the 2019 left wing wave stopped, with conservative region La Rioja being narrowly picked up by the left. I predicted the upsed here in fact

In any case while I think premier Concha Andreu is not exactly unpopular, this is the kind of scenario where the right will easily pick this one up just by the national environment alone. Even if the rural regionalist coalition of Partido Riojano and España Vaciada makes it, it seems they will not get to be kingmakers. Only reason I don't think it's safe is the possibility of something crazy happening and incumbency

Rating: Likely PP (flip)

Madrid
The region I'm currently living in and tbh it's been a surprisingly low profile campaign, did not expect that. Maybe it is because Isabel Diaz Ayuso will cruise to another landslide. Don't ask me why, as I do not have answers either.

The left has no chances and the only question is whether UP makes it in, as that will determine whether Ayuso has a majority or whether she has to deal with Vox (you know things are bad when f-ing Vox rejects your proposals, her budget was defeated in parliament!)

Beyond that there's a somewhat interesting fight as to whether MM or PSOE gets to lead the opposition, with MM very much favoured and I think thye will. Madrid's PSOE branch is, using the Trumpian term, very "low energy".

I will in fact go ahead and claim that PP will sooner lose Murcia than this. Ayuso could go ahead and shoot a bunch of people in Gran Via and she wouldn't lose any voters!

Rating: Safe PP

Murcia

The most conservative region of Spain even if its government is in chaos and dependent on splitters given how Cs descended into anarchy. In any case, no surprise the left here has no chance. Only question is whether Vox gets cabinet ministers and how strong its position is vs PP; as it's also the biggest Vox stronghold, so no chance of a PP majority. Maybe one can also pay attention as to whether the Cartagena regionalists make it in, which I don't think they will.

Rating: Safe PP

Navarra

UPN fell into big infighting, which basically hurts any chances they may have had of making a comeback (and in fact also hurts them a lot at the local level). PP will make big gains but nowhere near enough to compensate.

PSOE seems like it will go up, so there is no alternative to the current left wing government, they should have it in the bag.

Rating: Safe PSOE

Valencia

The "marquee" race, given it's by far the largest region that's actually competitive, and it also really acts as a good summary of the entire election and all of Spanish politics. Left wing nationalist Compromís was involved in a scandal, with their popular leader Monica Oltra forced to resign; though they have replaced her with also very popular Joan Baldoví, probably the best they could do.

The current government's majority is slim and the right seems like it's made a bit of a comeback, polling just above a majority. However, this will be the other region where I will go against polling and claim the left manages to barely keep this.

Worth noting UP is polling just above the threshold. If they miss it, then obviously they have no shot.

Rating: Lean PSOE

Ceuta
The two autonomous cities paint very different pictures. In Ceuta, the muslim residents are split, and PSOE still gets a good chunk of votes from them. Also, this is a region where PP and Vox have very very bad relations.

Current polling suggests PP is clearly ahead, with PP-Vox holding a comfortable majority. Because of how elections for mayor work in Spain, a formal PP-Vox coalition is extremely unlikely, with Jesús Vivas Lara most likely going to lead a minority government. Either way, he should be safe

Rating: Safe PP

Melilla
Oh boy where do I start. Back in 2019, Cs got this despite having literally 1 seat, with PSOE and the muslim party CPM voting for them! The mayor-president eventually left Cs as the party collapsed and it seems he is not bothering with reelection.

Current polling suggests it is a super tight race both between PP and CPM for first place and between the right and the left (though polling is probably abysmally bad here).

However there has been a scandal, where CPM has been accused of literal vote-buying, with the involvement of Morocco's secret services! Furthermore, the CPM leader, Mustafá Aberchan, has already been convicted for vote buying once! To be honest I find it absolutely disgusting.

In any case, the election is going ahead as normal, other than Melilla residents being forced to show their ID to vote by mail, which is normally not necessary. I feel the right will keep this, but I am not sure about it.

Oh and this is the only possibility the left has for a pickup.

Rating: Lean PP

[Former President tack50]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

As someone who voted by mail a couple days ago, I'm surprised we voted for pretty much the same candidates lol (I ended up going with Pedro Quevedo and NC for mayor, which was the hardest one to decide)

Either way, I think NC should retain the Cabildo and PSOE is almost guaranteed to retain the mayorship. The regional government is the hardest, but it probably won't be decided by the actual votes, but rather by what Casimiro Curbelo wants.

[Former President tack50]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

Are there many political differences between the islands or do they usually vote in a similar way?

There are many political differences, but an analysis is far from straightforward and localism in the islands runs rampant. So it's not quite as simple as "these places lean left, these others right".

The islands that vote the most differently are tiny La Gomera (Casimiro Curbelo's personal fiefdom, ASG runs basically everything there; with PSOE being distant opposition) and Gran Canaria (which despises CC with a passion and is the strongest place for NC by far)

[Former President tack50]

I went to the polling station. It took me some minutes to find the ballots I was looking for.  Here in the Canary Islands we have four different ballots: Councilors  (white), Canarian Parliament [ two ballots: insular constituency,  sepia; regional constituency, yellow), and Cabildo (insular government,  green)

I voted for the following candidates

Regional premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Mayor of Las Palmas: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Chair (president) of the Cabildo: Antonio Morales (NC)

My ontention is voting Sumar (Yolanda Díaz) in the general elections,  but we'll see

As someone who voted by mail a couple days ago, I'm surprised we voted for pretty much the same candidates lol (I ended up going with Pedro Quevedo and NC for mayor, which was the hardest one to decide)

Either way, I think NC should retain the Cabildo and PSOE is almost guaranteed to retain the mayorship. The regional government is the hardest, but it probably won't be decided by the actual votes, but rather by what Casimiro Curbelo wants.

Yes, Casimiro Curbelo will likely decide who's the next premier. He could go easily for that terrible CC leader called Fernando Clavijo. I hope Ángel Víctor Torres remains, because I really do like him. I remember myself watching his appearances in the summer of 2019, during the terrible fires in Gran Canaria, while thinking "this is the way to act undertragic circumstances". The balance is not entirely positive,  (a lot of unsolved problems in the Health Service and the Social Rights area, for instance), but Torres is a good leader and the progressive government represents a breath of fresh air after 26 years of CC regime.  I also like Carolina Darias, for she looks like a competent bureaucrat. So the yellow and white ballots were easy choices for me.  I could have chosen yhe UP sepia ballot for the Gran Canaria constituency,  but I have a low opinion of candidate Noemí Santana and opted for the careerist Sebastián Franquis (PSOE). It's the third time I vote for Antonio Morales, because he's the progressive candidate with the best chances to win and I find him more acceptable than Román Rodríguez or Pedro Quevedo (I would never vote for these two). Still,  I have serious doubts about the viability of the Chira-Soria project sponsored by Morales

Ironically I have a very different analysis in this!

I don't really like Darias all that much. She is competent, but for some reason I don't like her parachuting into the city. Also I disagree with her delaying stuff at the end of the pandemic (or even taking the Healthcare minister post tbh). I am also not a fan of Pedro Quevedo's job in the city council (he is fine in Congress though); but he seemed the lesser evil among the left; as I did not really consider a right wing vote at all this time as I felt the city was better ran than in the 2015-19 period.

Also I have an entirely opposite opinion on the Chira-Soria project. It's a project that will bring a ton of renewable energy (iircy like 30% of the island's consumption?). Yes, I believe there are some (tbh, fairly minor and petty) environmental concerns, but I will easily take those over delaying the energy transition and the fight against climate change. Ironically a fear I had with him was not being commited enough to the project lol

Finally for whatever reason I had a soft-spot for UxGC during the entire campaign. I didn't seriously consider them for any election level, but for some reason I really enjoyed their campaign. Kind of hoping they do well (as in, get representation and possibly some influence wherever there are right-wing governments).

[Former President tack50]

Strike while the iron is hot I guess. Cause if yesterday was not a wake up call, then defeat will come whether now or at the end of the year. The Right-Wing government will come unless everyone within the coalition learns to swim rather than sink, so hopefully some will take the appropriate message.

Make sense.  This move reminds me of Schröder calling early elections in 2005 after the defeat in the North Rhine-Westphalia state election.  SPD outperformed in that election and Schröder came closer to winning that snap election than anyone expected.

There's also what happened in 2011. In the May 2011 local elections, the PSOE suffered an even larger defeat than the one yesterday and there was talk that Zapatero would call a snap election, that was only expected for March 2012. After a summer of back and forwards, he decided to call an election in late September, if I recall correctly, for November 2011 and many thought that an early election would be better for PSOE. It wasn't. The party suffered a humiliating defeat, 45-29% in favour of PP. And curious fact, even though that year's horrible result for the Socialists, they have not surpassed the 28.8% share of the vote of 2011 in any general election since then, even in the ones they polled ahead.

For a more optimist take on PSOE's options, for some reason I get more 1995 vibes from this, particularly given the scale of the victory.

Of course, Gonzalez did not go to the polls until the following year, but when he did, PSOE did quite well even if it lost

[Former President tack50]

Pablo Iglesias launched his proposal to save the left from his pidcast La Base and his Canal Red TV: a "broad progressive front" led by Sánchez and seconded by Díaz, an amalgamation of the PSOE and the left-wing parties running in smaller provinces. This idea was already proposed before the 2000 general elections, when Joaquín Almunia was the leader of the PSOE and Paco Frutos the leader of IU. Meanwhile the Podemos leadership blamea weather conditions (the "reactionary wave"), avoiding analysis or self-criticism. On her part, Yolanda Díaz seems to have realized that it's not time for símiles anymore. "I take on the challenge":. She has only 10 days to forge a coalition between 12 parties including Podemos !

https://twitter.com/Yolanda_Diaz_/status/1663117601063444482?t=oNYgv4J3qwQjL_kmr...

That 2000 alliance was a disaster, wasn't it? Though in the smaller provinces all the votes to the non-PSOE left are going to the trash anyway.

Iirc it was more pointless than a disaster per se. It only applied in the Senate, which is the pointless chamber and elephant cemetery in Spain's Congress

It did work quite well in Catalonia, probably helped by the PSC-ERC-ICV government there after 2003, and in fact remained in place as late as 2011, but everywhere else it was dropped after 2000.

[Former President tack50]

I've read many times the expression sanchismo in the right-wing media, but what exactly does that mean? How is it different than -for example- zapaterismo?

It doesn't really mean much other than the broad policies that the Sanchez government has taken. Nowhere to the extent of "Sanchismo"; but the terms "Marianismo", "Aznarismo" or "Felipismo" were also used to some degree for former PMs Mariano Rajoy, Jose María Aznar and Felipe González respectively.

Kinda like if Americans started to call Biden's broad policies "Bidenism" I suppose

[Former President tack50]

I think folks in the PSOE are not fully aware of what is coming ahead. A rightwing victory wouldn't be a comeback to Aznar or Rajoy. A PP-VOX government will be something much worse,  a true reactionary involution.

I don't see Feijóo as radical or reactionary, on the contrary. As Galician President he was a moderate and seems to fall in line with the Moreno Bonilla trend inside the PP. However, I'm not sure how he will handle Vox or even how Vox will manage being that close to power. We can't rule out anything but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 years or so, if the PP wins the July elections of course, the PP+Vox deals collapses and Feijóo tries to win a majority of his own.

Feijóo is just a conservative man from Galicia. The problem is that he is not the actual leader of the PP,  just the person who provisionally puts his face in electoral posters.  The forces that drive the PP nowadays are in Madrid. On the other hand, the PP will need Vox to govern. Santiago Abascal will demand to be Deputy PM and some portfolios for Vox. Pretty soon the right-wing coalition will revoke progressive legislation and implement a reactionary agenda, cutting social and civic rights, as well prosecuting migrants and minorities. I have little doubt about that

Well, if PP succeeds he will also become the guy in Moncloa palace! Which gives the interesting thing that the last 2 PP PMs will be (relative) moderates from Galicia. Both also examples in "failing upwards" in a way.

I'm not saying you're wrong about the PP now being "ruled" by the Madrid local branch, but, again, Feijóo is Galician and I live in Northern Portugal, we have similar quirks and when we are stubborn, we are stubborn. I think that, once in power, we cannot rule out that Feijóo would want to do things on his own way. We'll see.

For what is worth, the scenario you described already sort of happened with the other Galician PP leader we had (Rajoy). He used to be much more of a hardliner between 2004 and 2008, with Madrid premier Esperanza Aguirre playing a very similar role to Ayuso currently. After losing the 2008 election, Rajoy was indirectly primaried by Esperanza Aguirre, who last minute refused to run in the primaries. After that, the economic downturn hit and Rajoy basically sat and did nothing during the 2008-11 term, winning PP's largest victory essencially by being "Not-PSOE".

You can even get some of the parallels related to deals with secessionist parties (Zapatero being dependent on ERC, which at the time was much more of a hardliner party, was seen as unthinkable; and of course he negotiated with ETA) and the delegitimation of his government.

The main issue is that the parallels to 2004-08 immediately break with this election. The 2007 regional elections were basically a draw. The 2023 regional elections uh... not so much. And of course Zapatero was slightly favoured in 2008 (and won) while Sanchez is in an uphill battle that he will very likely lose.

[Former President tack50]

That 2000 alliance was a disaster, wasn't it? Though in the smaller provinces all the votes to the non-PSOE left are going to the trash anyway.

The alliance never materialized and the outcome of the 2000 general elections was a majority for the PP led by José María Aznar. There are many differences between 2000 and 2023, on the other hand. By 2000 Vox didn't exist and Aznar had spent four years governing in a moderate style supported by CiU or PNV. Those were years of apparent economic prosperity and the Aznar narrative was very succesful; "España va bien". With the majoority achieved in the 2000 elections, Aznar showed his true face turning to be the arrogant rightwinger everybody knows.

I checked my precinct resuts and they are a bit shocking

PSOE 35.3%, PP 21.1%, Hablemos Ahora 11.4%, Vox 9,3%, USP 6.5%, NC 6%

For some reason the Hablemos Ahora ("let's talk now") list performed strongly in my neighbourhood, otherwise solidly PSOE. To be honest, I don't have a clue about that party. The website says it was founded in November 2020 in Gran Canaria and they are allegedly a "centrist, progressive and liberal" force

Your precinct almost certainly has a counting mistake. My guess is Hablemos Ahora and CC's results got swapped around (somehow)

Anyways, here's my home town's precinct where I used to live, and where my vote got actually counted by mail:

PSOE: 26.7%
PP: 26.5%
Vox: 13.3%
UP: 7.8%
CC: 6.8%
NCa: 5.1%

And the precinct I'm currently living in in Madrid

PP: 60.9%
Vox: 11.8%
MM: 9.7%
PSOE: 8.5%
Cs: 4.6%
Podemos: 2.3%

You know your precinct is uber-conservative when even now Cs is above Podemos lmao

[Former President tack50]

And the precinct I'm currently living in in Madrid

PP: 60.9%
Vox: 11.8%
MM: 9.7%
PSOE: 8.5%
Cs: 4.6%
Podemos: 2.3%

You know your precinct is uber-conservative when even now Cs is above Podemos lmao

Salamanca? Yikes... although honestly I find kind of funny how Ayuso monopolized the right-wing vote even at the expense of Madrid Vox.

Nope, it's near Moncloa. Though to be fair, it votes fairly similar to Salmanca, certainly more conservative (even if not by much) than nearby Chamberí. By the way, in my first 6 months in the city I used to live in an even more conservative area!

Also, that was Almeida, not even Ayuso! Queen Ayuso's results were even better in my precinct (even if mostly taking votes from Vox), two thirds of my neighbours voted for her!:

PP: 67.5%
MM: 11.0%
PSOE: 8%
Vox: 7.6%
UP: 2.5%
Cs: 1.6%

Also on the topic of Madrid, fun fact: the amount of municipalities that did not vote Ayuso doubled this time, from 2 (and a tie) to 4. PSOE retains Fuentidueña del Tajo and El Atazar and gains neighbouring Valdaracete and Patones.

Fun fact #2: I actually went on a "pilgrimage" to Fuentidueña del Tajo to visit one of the only two non-Ayuso voting towns like a year ago! (BRTD would be proud lol) And to be honest for being a random village in the middle of nowhere, it beat my admittedly low expectations

[Former President tack50]

Fun fact #2: I actually went on a "pilgrimage" to Fuentidueña del Tajo to visit one of the only two non-Ayuso voting towns like a year ago! (BRTD would be proud lol) And to be honest for being a random village in the middle of nowhere, it beat my admittedly low expectations

I seem to recall you talking about that! I am glad you liked it. Are you going to Valdaracete this year?

From a quick look Valdaracete sounds much less promsing tbh. It has a church (like literally every Spanish town with a population above 3) and... that's about it really. Maaybe some hiking trails but southeast Madrid isn't exactly super pretty (it might make for a decent biking trail but I do not own a bike). Public transit is good enough that I could consider it though.

The other pickup, Patones, is probably a better place. A "pedanía" of it, Patones de Arriba, seems like a tiny but lovely mountain town, with a hiking trail connecting it to Patones proper. Not much else but it beats "Random Castillian Town #212331". Bus service is a lot worse though, even if still good enough that I could consider it.

Oh and if I do decide to do any of these, I better do them quickly as I'll lose my youth card next year as I'll be over 26 (the adult card is only valid for Madrid city limits. Though Ayuso promised to cut fares, so maybe paying an extra like 5-10€ a month will be worth it if I travel enough lol)

On this topic, I also considered going to the most PSOE-voting precinct, but never went for it. Wasn't too interesting, just a precinct next to a park in one of Madrid's poorest neighbourhoods (Entrevías). The park would have made for a decent excursion I suppose.

Another fun "pilgrimage" I considered was to go to the closest UP voting town in the 2019 general election. Which is a random hamlet in rural Guadalajara with a population of 14 (La Olmeda de Jadraque). Not doing it cause it involves walking like 3 hours each way from what's already a rather small town (Sigüenza), to watch a literal handful of houses lmao (might be doable on a bike though).

[Former President tack50]

Honestly as someone who heavily leans PSOE, I am extremely disappointed at this scorched earth, full on attacks campaign. Yes, it's fine attacking PP for dealing with Vox, but this is well into the overboard and hyperbole territory in my opinion.

Between this and some very clearly populist measures from the Sanchez government (not like PP goverments don't do those, Ayuso also did a handful on her regional campaign); I am starting to get second thoughts on voting for them! No, I won't be voting PP for the record; but I am most definitely considering CC and may even consider a protest vote for some niche party with 0.1% of the vote if things get bad enough).

Of course I may also "come home" and vote for him anyways. But I'm starting to think along the lines of "If I wanted the rethoric of Podemos/Pablo Iglesias, I'd vote for Podemos". (Ironically if Yolanda Diaz does succeed and goes with a happy/moderate campaign I may start personally liking her more than scorched earth Sánchez lmao. Just not enough to vote Sumar over PSOE)

Also, if Sanchez goes with such a campaign, wouldn't he be losing any remaining chance to get moderate voters? Then again maybe his objective is to get a good loss and lead a strong opposition rather than actually winning I suppose.

[Former President tack50]

How political is the Spanish military out of curiosity?

Not very in the sense that talking about the military itself isn't really a campaign issue for the most part, and probably hasn't been since at least the Irak war?

The military itself heavily leans conservative though, this is a secret said outloud basically.

There was a bit of a scandal in 2020 about some leaked group chat of retired generals claiming that the military should kill the "23 million reds" or something along those lines; can't remember the details. for what is worth

[Former President tack50]

How political is the Spanish military out of curiosity?

My anectedotal 2cents is that when I lived there I had a mate who was in the military and he was a PSOE member with the more conservative characteristics you would expect (and the types maybe PSOE have lost). Anyway, in his view, Spain's upper echelons of the military are not politicised and take civil-military relations seriously because of the Transition period and the fact that multiple governments (mostly PSOE) have appointed serious people that could be considered "military skeptics" as defence ministers. That being said, there are branches that he considered right-wing overtly, and then there is the Guardia Civil which was technically MoD but under orders from Interior. You also have culture of machismo banter that would make Americans balk but you probably have that everywhere.

The intelligence services for me are the ones that are inherently politicised, but in a rather laughably amateuresque way : which serious intelligence service goes around spying on the King's mistress to see what she is up to because he's a bit jealous/afraid of the court case? And then of course there is the Pegasus scandal and I don't think it's a coincidence that Spain and Greece, two former dictatorships with stay-behind networks from that era still populating the intelligence services, are the countries actively spying on their opposition figures, including in Spain ¡s case, someone spying on Sanchez himself!

Interested to hear what the Spanish posters think though.

This sounds mostly correct. I would really only add that the process you mention regarding the upper echelons of the military wasn't really instant but rather happened gradually during Gonzalez's term in office (and probably the UCD ones too).

PSOE indeed also has usually appointed quite serious people as defence minister and indeed there are branches that are probably considered more right wing than others (the Legión comes to mind most notably).