2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: West Virginia (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: West Virginia (search mode)
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Poll
Question: The 2 remaining seats will naturally go to the GOP, so it doesn't really matter how the GOP decides to redistrict here, but which map is more likely?
#1
One district in the North (in the DC media market) and one in the South (coal country).
#2
One district in the West (near PA and OH) and one in the East (bordering VA).
#3
Neither / a mixture of both.
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Partisan results


Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: West Virginia  (Read 4822 times)
Former President tack50
tack50
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« on: December 19, 2020, 05:14:48 PM »

Since it might be slightly more interesting than the Congressional map, here is a hypothetical fair State Senate map (apparently WV uses State Senate districts that elect 2 people?)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/13a6916b-d405-46f0-b8bb-e404a422e354



Needless to say, these are all Safe R based off presidential results; with the possible exception of district 10 (Charleston) which might be ""only"" Likely R (though even that one has a PVI of R+5). Though I imagine district 4 (Monongalia) and 7 (Jefferson & a small part of Berkeley) would be competitive too. After all Monongalia came very close to flipping in 2020.

Since WV is one of the places where Dems can still win in ancestral areas, I will note that even Obama in 2008 only managed to win those 3 districts, and none of them by particularly large margins (Best being the Charleston district at Obama+6)

The median district should be district 13 (Harrison, Lewis & Upshur Counties); which has a 2012-2016 composite of 70% R-30% D and a PVI of R+22. (and was McCain+20 back in 2008)

To be honest if WV has big restrictions on county splits, I imagine Republicans probably will have to concede at least 2 competitive districts in Monongalia and Jefferson. They might be able to crack Charleston though.

If WV has no restrictions on county splits thoough, Republicans could easily go for an all safe seats map, even with Obama 08 numbers
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