COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Former President tack50]

'Vigilante treatments': Anti-vaccine groups push people to leave ICUs

Anti-vaccine Facebook groups have a new message for their community members: Don’t go to the emergency room, and get your loved ones out of intensive care units.

Consumed by conspiracy theories claiming that doctors are preventing unvaccinated patients from receiving miracle cures or are even killing them on purpose, some people in anti-vaccine and pro-ivermectin Facebook groups are telling those with Covid-19 to stay away from hospitals and instead try increasingly dangerous at-home treatments, according to posts seen by NBC News over the past few weeks.

The messages represent an escalation in the mistrust of medical professionals in groups that have sprung up in recent months on social media platforms, which have tried to crack down on Covid misinformation. And it’s something that some doctors say they’re seeing manifest in their hospitals as they have filled up because of the most recent delta variant wave.

I suppose this is a good thing because if this gains traction, then ICU spaces are preserved for people who deserve them. Eating sh**t and dying to own the libs must be the new fad. Maybe they think Trump is still the president and that they need to keep the COVID numbers low so their glorious leader doesn't look bad. 

I have no objection to this.

These people keep insisting COVID is "just the flu" so if they really want to stick to their principles, they shouldn't be going to the hospital at all, since virtually no one ever needs the ICU for influenza.

I know people who have had necessary surgeries and procedures delayed because the COVID people are overcrowding the hospitals. So if they'll just stop going there, they'll free up the space for the rest of us.

While I agree with your sentiment, the bolded part is completely, 100% false. A bad flu can very well put you in the ICU. I vividly remember an old teacher of mine who got the flu, developed pneumonia and was completely absent for a full month, including a stay at the hospital. She did recover to full health thankfully, though she was quite wean and short of breath for a month after coming back

[Former President tack50]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1448841367103234051

I am surprised the table is symmetric given that I have always been told that regular cloth/surgical masks do not protect the wearer, they only stop the wearer from infecting others. (That's why they stop/slow down transmission, but wearing a mask won't mean you don't get infected)

[Former President tack50]

An interesting perspective on recent increased hospitalization rates from an ICU nurse:

https://slate.com/technology/2022/01/omicron-miami-icu-nurse-covid-optimism.html

I would say as I talk to the nurses that work in the COVID unit right now, I sense more optimism. In the first and second surges, we saw so much death, and dying, and suffering. It was really, really, really heartbreaking.

This time, patients just aren’t as sick.

So this means that even if hospitalization rates rise to the pre-vaccine levels, ICU usage or deaths won't? That's certainly excellent news

[Former President tack50]

I wonder if vaxxed people are spreading omicron more per capita.

This is 100% not possible; as presumably vaxxed people have habits no more conducive to spreading covid than unvaxxed people.

Plus the vaccine almost definitely must be doing something to slow down transmission, even if it is not much.

I could see the results being very close, but I don't think it is possible for vaxxed people to spread more than unvaxxed

[Former President tack50]

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The best I have heard is to just end all isolation quarantines, meaning even if you were exposed you wouldn’t need to isolate at all test or no test. While obviously this would end all quarantine absences short term, it definitely would increase cases to levels unprecedented, and while omicron does appear milder, the sheer volume still will likely kill a few more hundred thousand over the next few months if this were the policy action taken.

So uh, out of curiosity, do the US still require close contacts to self-isolate? Even if vaccinated? Because for what is worth we repealed that policy a long time ago here in Spain. Indeed it was repealed as early as late June of 2021! Yes it is for the vaccinated only but I would expect most kids and teachers to be vaxxed. And yes currently we are having a very bad wave but hospital/deaths here look very promising compared to the US I think (of course it really comes down to having more vaxxed people)

People should not quarantine merely for being a close contact of someone with covid (positive cases ofc should quarantine). Just use common sense, wear a mask for a few days and don't meet your elderly and frail grandma that week.

Either way, my own solution would just be status quo (plus mask mandates). As an outside observer it seems to me the apetite for further restrictions in the US is close to zero and that even if strict restrictions were put into place, they would not be enforced. And even where enforcable, they would be super unpopular.

[Former President tack50]

The only antigen/omicron research I can find says that the antigen tests have a 40-60% false negative rate if you're asymptomatic.  So if you have COVID it's basically a coin flip what the test is gonna tell you.  I spent all day driving around Portland and waiting in the freezing rain with a bunch of contagious people for this crap.

For what is worth the recommendation I've seen suggests that:

A) You should preferrably only do antigen tests if you are feeling symptoms

B) If you do it without symptoms regardless for peace of mind, do it as late as possible

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

Idk if these recommendations are too lenient or what, but it is what I have seen recommended out there

[Former President tack50]

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

I’ve seen this before, but I don’t really understand it. The PCR test is far more sensitive than an antigen test. I would think that if you test positive on the antigen, you presume positive, whereas if you test negative on antigen, you confirm with a PCR.

Also, PCR tests don’t cost the patient in the United States. Do they charge you in Spain?

Yeah they do, about 100€ iirc. I guess if you do an antigen test and test positive, it is free, but I am pretty sure it is not free if you just turn up at a lab and ask for one

[Former President tack50]

Ok, I think people might be confusing data so here it goes. Currently the ECDC sadly only offers numbers for "total population" and "Adults 18+" so here goes a relatively simple comparison of the US vs various EU countries on vaccines. I will do 2 dose only as well:

Adults 18+

USA: 74%
EU average: 80.5%

Countries comparable to the US in Europe include the Czech Republic (73.4%) and Latvia (74.6%).

Total population

USA: 63%
EU average: 69%

Again the US seems to be roughly on par with the Czech Republic and Latvia.

So basically the US are doing worse than EU countries, especially if you compare to Western Europe (compared to Eastern Europe however the US are doing amazing, so overall they end as "below average but not too bad). So to conclude the difference isn't that big.

Of course in practice the US are a big country with a massive amount of variation in vaccination. So the least vaccinated places in the US fall somewhere between Romania and Bulgaria levels of vaccination (34-49% for adults 18+) while the most vaccinated places are roughly on par with Western Europe or even slightly above it (somewhere in the very high 80s for adults) but fall just shy of the absolute best performers in Europe with vaccination rates of 90%+ (Portugal, Ireland)