How do you win California as a Republican? (user search)
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  How do you win California as a Republican? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How do you win California as a Republican?  (Read 1256 times)
Former President tack50
tack50
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« on: August 23, 2020, 08:41:57 AM »
« edited: August 23, 2020, 08:52:11 AM by Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) »

Based on an even swing from 2018-Gov, here is how the CA victory map from a Republican looks like



So, if I had to sum it up, a Republican to win in CA needs to do all of the following:

1) Get yuge landslide margins in the Republican parts of California, breaking even 70% in many counties

2) Win San Diego and Sacramento

3) Win the Los Angeles suburban counties, and in fact getting 60% in the infamous "Romney-Clinton" ones.

4) Not get destroyed in Los Angeles (getting just below 40% of the vote)

5) Not get destroyed in the San Francisco bay area, winning Solano outright and getting like 40% of the vote overall or something like that

The question of course is whether a map like that is even possible. Or whether the Republican victory map would be like that or not; even swing gets very unrealistic when dealing with overturning such high margins. It is perfectly possible that instead, an R victory map requires the Republican to instead win more in the suburbs and less in rural areas or viceversa
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Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 11,882
Spain


« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2020, 08:50:55 AM »

Here is an alternative "even swing" map, based off the Insurance Commissioner race instead (where the indy was a de facto Republican?)



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