North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Former President tack50]

I think people should just separate "partisan fairness" from "cleanly fairness" to call them in some way.

Yes, on paper, all other things being equal, a fair map of NC should be 7R-6D-1S or something close or equivalent. However, like in many other states, to get to those partisan numbers you need to do a gerrymander. The reason is simple, Democrats are concentrated in cities, while Republicans are much more spread out.

Therefore if you draw clean and fair districts you end up with just a handful of Democratic districts based around the main metropolitan areas of the state; that vote something like 70-30D; while the rest of the state gets Republican districts that vote something around 58R-42D.

There is also the VRA districts issue; though I personally think that its impact is neutral in the grand scheme of things, there are some states where Republicans are the ones that profit and some where Democrats are the ones that profit from it. Though I think in NC's particular case the VRA's impact is neutral/not very important.

There is not a particularly right or wrong way to draw districts; I am of the opinion that a gerrymander to increase competitiveness or to make results closer to the state average can be acceptable depending on circumstances.

But if you draw "natural" and "clean" districts, without splitting metropolitan areas, in most states you will end up with R tilting maps

[Former President tack50]

Anyways because an image is better, here is my attempt at a fair map. Surprisingly it is quite partisanly proportional, being 7R-5D-2S (functionally equivalent to 8-6). And 1 of the R districts are not 100% safe in fact. Then again one of the swing districts is a hard lift for Dems.



NC-01: Clinton+12, D+5 (45% black)
NC-02: Clinton+12, D+7
NC-03: Trump+29, R+14
NC-04: Clinton+33, D+13
NC-05: Trump+34, R+17
NC-06: Trump+0, R+2
NC-07: Trump+9, R+4
NC-08: Clinton+23, D+10
NC-09: Trump+18, R+12
NC-10: Trump+44, R+22
NC-11: Trump+15, R+8
NC-12: Clinton+46, D+22 (43% black)
NC-13: Trump+33, R+18
NC-14: Trump+7, R+4

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2c71aaf6-40b1-4630-8cb7-03fde0e81f7b

And because I think if you draw a fair map, it is important to say the "COI" involved, so here is my attempt at identifying the COI involved:

NC-01: Mandatory rural northwest black district
NC-02: Raleigh
NC-03: Eastern NC (admittedly a bit of a leftovers district but the VRA forces an ugly district here instead of a much cleaner north-south one)
NC-04: Durham & Cary
NC-05: Western Charlotte Suburbs/exurbs
NC-06: Winston-Salem
NC-07: Wilmington / Southeast NC
NC-08: Greensboro
NC-09: Eastern Charlotte Suburbs/exurbs
NC-10: Northwest rural NC
NC-11: "Panhandle" / Asheville area
NC-12: Charlotte (mandatory VRA district?)
NC-13: Rural central NC
NC-14: Fayetteville & Goldsboro

The part I like the least about my map is the Greensboro and Winston-Salem districts, but I think those are often going to be awkward, or have a cascade effect on the rest of the map.