How would Canadian Provinces vote in McCain vs Obama?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Just for fun ;-)

British Columbia: Strong Obama
Alberta: Tossup/Lean McCain
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean Obama
Ontario: Ultra-strong Obama
Quebec: Obama, but not sure how much
New Brunswick: lean Obama
Newfoundland: it's basically the West Virginia of Canada, it's poor and socially conservative compared with the rest of the country, but I don't know if racial issues would be a factor here on such a white island. I'm gonna go with tossup/lean McCain.
Nova Scotia: lean Obama
Prince Edward Island: no idea

Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut: wouldn't be states because they wouldn't meet any reasonable population threshhold. In fact even together they probably wouldn't.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)

no way Alberta is more conservative than Texas. There are similarities between the two sure. Alberta is definately more conservative than the rest of Canada, but not more than Texas.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

Even in Alberta? Wow.

Alberta may be Conservative, but it's not Republican Bush actually was most popular in Atlantic Canada. Go figure.

I have a feeling it would be Republican if it were in the US though.

Also, if Bush was at 20% with another 20% undecided in 2004, that would mean McCain would have a floor of about 30% in Canada.

[Stranger in a strange land]

How would they vote in the Hillary/Obama primary?

BC, Alberta, Ontario: Obama
everything else: Clinton

why? Obama did well in the prarie states in the US. I expect he'd do just as well if not better in MB and SK. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Using polls to try to extrapolate how American candidates would do in Canada is almost as ridiculous as trying the same for Canadian or other international candidates in America. 

For an example - in 2005, Tony Blair probably would have won Utah even though his Party describes itself as "socialist"

McCain the Canadian war hero from Edmonton would probably do as well as any other Conservative and Obama the MP from Montreal would probably do as well as any other Liberal.  The end.

That's a good point: people tend to evaluate foreign polticians based on their foreign policy ideas and percieved attitudes towards their country.

also, Labour isn't really socialist anymore, but I think everyone knows that.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

You are being intellectually dishonest with that one. The CCF's [Cooperative Commonwealth Federation for the uninitiated] base was in the rural areas, as was true of all of the other, earlier leftist movements (United Farmers, Progressives). It wasn't until the 1980s that the NDP's base in Saskatchewan became the cities.

In the end, McCain has no chance in Canada. He wins Alberta, maybe Saskatchewan and probably PEI, N&L and New Brunswick (those are something of a guess). Obama wins the rest, except possibly losing Manitoba. But only Ontario and Quebec would matter, and they'd probably vote for a rock before McCain.

The CCF did well in the cities, too Verily, but that's besides the point. I never said they didn't do well in the rural areas.

And there's no way in hell McCain would win any province. The media here has pretty much ignored the Republican campaign.

I think he'd at least win Alberta.

[Stranger in a strange land]

FWIW, is this site capable for making election maps for countries other than the US? If not, is there a Canadian election calculator somewhere? (I doubt there would be since they don't use the EC, but just wondering...)

[Stranger in a strange land]

FWIW, is this site capable for making election maps for countries other than the US? If not, is there a Canadian election calculator somewhere? (I doubt there would be since they don't use the EC, but just wondering...)

Perhaps you could calculate one. It wouldn't be too difficult as long as you know how to apportion electoral votes. However it would make elections rather pointless in Canada because they would not give any vote to huge numbers of people in Ontario and Quebec, and there wouldn't be any way to win without Ontario probably.

Here's my crack at it:

Ontatio and Quebec have 39 and 23 percent of the population respectively. Ontario by itself would give you more than 1/3 of the EV. Ontario and together Quebec have a commanding majority of the population. For a US-style EC system to work, they'd have to be split into smaller provinces.

If Canadian provinces were US states and had congressional seats of approximately 625,000 each, here's how the EV distribution would break down roughly:

Ontario: 23
Quebec: 14
BC 9
Alberta 8
Manitoba 4
Saskatchewan 4
Nova Scoita 3
New Brunswick 3
Newfoundland 3
PEI + Territories 3

or if Canada in its current form used the EC based on number of MPs:

Ontario: 106
Quebec: 75
BC 36
Alberta 28
Manitoba 14
Saskatchewan 14
Nova Scoita 11
New Brunswick 10
Newfoundland 7
PEI 4
Territories 1 each.

Source: wikipedia

[Stranger in a strange land]

Senate + House Seats?

NL: 13
PE: 8
NS: 21
NB: 20
QC: 99
ON: 130
MB: 20
SK: 20
AB: 34
BC: 42
YT: 2
NT: 2
NU: 2

(2006 results)
Liberals: 196
Conservatives: 116
Bloc Quebecois: 99
NDP: 2

LOL! Well, it would go to the House to decide!

in that case I think either:
a. the Bloc would merge or coalition with one of the other parties
b. Canada would adopt some sort of 2-party system
c. power would remain largely vested in Parliament, which would continue to elect the leader.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Canada would have to have runoff style elections. First Past the Post would disenfranchise most left-wing voters.

There's a theory that first past the post inevitably leads to a 2 party system, so I suspect some of the left/leftish/center-left parties (ie the Liberals, NDP, some of the greens, and a few members of the BQ) might merge.