Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Stranger in a strange land]

Those precious few Russians with a conscience:

Documents Reveal Hundreds of Russian Troops Broke Ranks Over Ukraine Orders

And for every one who broke ranks, there will be an order of magnitude more not happy with things.

Said it early on in this conflict and it remains the case - for all the polling and suchlike showing that most Russians support this war, overt and passionate enthusiasm remains notably thin on the ground. That might help explain why state TV frequently resorts to the inflammatory, and often simultaneously sinister and absurd, rhetoric that it does - their core audience of USSR-nostalgic boomers need to be kept in line.

Because the actual attitude that the Putin regime wants from its populace is not patriotic fervor, but apathy and resignation. A real, genuine patriotic movement can take on a life of its own and become difficult or impossible for the regime to control, and even turn against it. This is why only officially-sponsored, choreographed displays of support for the *COUGH AHEM* SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION *COUGH AHEM*  are allowed, and why Russian nationalists who've applied to hold Z rallies have actually had their permits rejected by the authorities in most places. Of course another possible reason for this is that they'll go off message, which hints at the danger I mentioned: it would of course be very likely and  quite embarrassing for the regime for a speaker at an independent pro-war rally to use bloodthirsty, openly racist, genocidal, or anti-Semitic language. If such a clip went viral online, it would further harden the will of Ukrainians to resist and of Western countries to aid them.

The absurd, inflammatory, and conspiratorial content on state TV is intended to keep people in line and create a network of paranoid snitches to control the rest of the population and make sure that no one makes trouble, much like what existed in Soviet times, rather than to get people out on the streets and to the front lines.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.infowars.com/posts/ukraine-to-ban-war-and-peace-from-being-taught-in-schools/

"Ukraine to Ban ‘War and Peace’ From Being Taught in Schools"

Leo Tolstoy’s ‘War and Peace’ and other classic historical novels that portray the Russian military in anything other than a negative light will be banned from being taught in Ukrainian schools, it has been announced.

Not explicitly saying this is false, but until we get a report from some Source less absolute crackpot band Infowars, caveat emptor

Although what child wouldn't want "War and Peace" banned.

Also, I don't think Ukrainians of any age have the time or patience to read War and Peace in the current situation.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why do people talk about Azov like it is relevant or representative of any large section of Ukrainian society? It is an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Because it's not an irrelevant militia of a few hundred people.

Russia's repeated f[inks]ery in Ukraine allows Azov to pretend to be the brave and determined defenders of the nation, vastly increasing their sympathy, support, and number of recruits even among those who reject their ideology. It's particularly noteworthy that the Azov Battalion didn't even exist until 2014, when Russia siezed Crimea and pro-Russian forces partially took Donbas.

This dynamic is very similar to how Western military interventions to defeat Islamist insurgencies and militant groups often do succeed in killing a lot of their members and weakening them for a time, but in the long term just end up making those groups more popular and entrenched.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It's also quite possible that the person is not fully informed like we political Geeks and mistakenly believes the Azov Battalion they've heard something about on the news was actually the Defenders of the steel plant.

That is fair and most likely certainly to be true.  In fact that is my point.  The protesters do not know that much about the situation including knowing the background and views of the Azov Brigade but are only protesting because Ukraine is the current "thing."  In a few months they will move on to the next "thing"

I don't think you need to have a deep and complete understanding of the Ukraine conflict to know that Russia is the aggressor and be against its actions.

It's also possible that a pro-Russian troll or provocateur gave them an Azov sticker telling them that it was the "Ukrainian army emblem" or something like that, and then proceeded to take a picture and post it on social media to reinforce the "Ukrainians are Nazis" narrative.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Ukrainians gradually withdrew from the city since last week, some still left. The oil refinery to the west of the city is still contested as of now/possibly under Russian control (RU sources just now).. Chechens claiming they have entered Lysychansk.

So 2 possibilities:
1) It's a lie
2) Other Russian or Separatist units already took Lysychansk (or part of it) and did the fighting, and Kadyrov's men have arrived to film TikTok and Telegram videos and claim credit.

[Stranger in a strange land]

What do the residents of Crimea, formerly Ukrainian citizens, think of the 2022 invasion?

I know many were pro-Russian and let Crimea be annexed, relatively quickly and peacefully.

But after being a part of Ukraine for decades, I wonder what they think of all this?

my understanding is that most of the population that was pro-Ukrainian left, and there's been a huge influx of Russians, particularly Russian military and their families, so the population right now is very heavily ethnic Russian and pro-Russian. And despite its strategic value, Crimea is a poison pill for whichever country that possesses it: for Ukraine, it's because it means having a large pro-Russian population; for Russia, it's because of the economic cost.

[Stranger in a strange land]

In other news, North Korea becomes the 3rd UN member to recognize the so called DPR and LPR as independent states, along with Syria and Russia itself.

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-recognises-breakaway-russias-proxies-east-ukraine-2022-07-13/

OK, I don’t see how taking North goddamned Korea’s position as newsworthy can seriously be anything but Putin trolling.

I dunno, it has a certain amusement value.

(and being charitable, that may even have been a factor in posting it)

Ukraine has broken off diplomatic relations with North Korea: https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/zayava-mzs-ukrayini-shchodo-rozrivu-diplomatichnih-vidnosin-iz-korejskoyu-narodnoyu-demokratichnoyu-respublikoyu

[Stranger in a strange land]

Who do they think this actually impresses?

Nationalistic old babushkas who pine for the days of Brezhnev, and western pro-Russia clout-chasing bottom-feeders like Jackson Hinkle and Sameera Khan & their fans

[Stranger in a strange land]

lol

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1566969053394206725?s=20&t=oV_treXzf...

As with the alleged Iranian drones, if purchases are large and not simply meant to replace a reserve in Russia which was released for the war, then we should know soon enough. NK has a lot of ammo and a need for cash, so this is bad news.

The ammo is likely to be as old as the grandfathers of the men firing it, and it's very, very doubtful it's been stored in ideal conditions, so transporting it from NK, across Siberia, and to Ukraine is going to be a big (and dangerous) challenge in and of itself.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Getting back to North Korea now becoming an arms merchant to Russia (how the world changes), there is but one transit point between Russia and North Korea - just one (the borders there between the PRC, Russia and N. Korea are erose, as if gerrymandered almost).



It's time for Ukraine to blow that bridge up. That will catch Putin's attention. I really don't see why mother Russia gets to be a sanctuary city in this war. That's not very symmetrical. I find asymmetry discordant and unaesthetic myself. What's Putin going to do about it? Rattle his nukes again? Does he even know if his nukes work?

Pity that even though the river is very close to the Pacific there, it looks too sallow for a sub. It's no Hudson River. So sad.  If it were deeper I might do a gofundme so that Ukraine can buy a sub. I could arrange to use my political influence in Samoa (yes I do know the PM there personally), to arrange for it to be the delivery point. From there it is a straight shot to the bridge.

Nice bridge. Shame if anything happened to it.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Off to The Hague hopefully!

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568035564452024321?t=e8FWFS5mT9d6FgITZn...

Did something similar happen to any high ranking US military commander in combat? I can't think of any instance, and we were "engaged" in several wars.

The highest-ranking US military officer ever captured by an enemy was Major General William F. Dean, captured by North Korean forces early in the Korean War. In short, he'd been cut off from his unit and was alone, but even then was only captured because the North Koreans used local Southern Collaborators to lure him into a trap. The story reads like an action movie, and it's actually pretty surprising that none has ever been made based on his story:

For two days, the 34th Infantry fought the advancing North Koreans in bitter house-to-house fighting. North Korean soldiers continued to infiltrate the city, often disguised as farmers. The remaining elements of the 24th Infantry Division were pushed back block by block.[52] Without radios, and unable to communicate with the remaining elements of the division, Dean joined the men on the front lines, hunting the T-34 tanks with the help of the new shaped-charge, armor-piercing 3.5 inch "Super Bazookas", which had only been put into production two weeks before the war.[53] At one point, Dean personally attacked a tank with a hand grenade, destroying it.[54]

Dean's small force eventually made it out of the city past several North Korean roadblocks. Just outside the city Dean stopped his jeep to tend to several wounded US soldiers in a wrecked truck in the ditch. However, as they attempted to escape further they ran into another North Korean roadblock and were forced to continue on foot, crossing the Taejon River and climbing a nearby mountain. In the confusion, Dean was separated from the group.[58]

While he was going after water for a wounded man, Dean fell down a steep slope and was knocked unconscious. When he regained consciousness he found he had a gashed head, a broken shoulder, and many bruises. For 36 days, Dean wandered alone in the mountains trying to reach safety, going without food and medical treatment.

On August 25, two South Koreans who pretended to be guiding him toward safety led him into a prearranged ambush of North Korean soldiers at Chinan, 35 miles (56 km) south of Taejon and 65 miles (105 km) west of Taegu. Dean attempted to fight the North Koreans with his sidearm to make them kill him, but they easily took the weakened Dean prisoner.[59]

Dean was widely believed to have been killed until October 1950, when US forces captured a North Korean soldier named Lee Kyu Hyun near P'yongyang. Lee had been assigned to live with Dean for a month as an interpreter. Lee was interviewed throughout late 1950 but US military leaders still generally thought Dean was dead.[59]

As UN air raids against the North Koreans intensified, Dean was moved to Sunan, north of P'yongyang, to a hut where he lived with several guards. They began daily interrogations primarily aimed at forcing military intelligence from him or making him sign a written condemnation of the UN intervention in Korea, but Dean adamantly refused to do so. Senior North Korean military leaders continued such interrogations through October 1950 but eventually gave up when Dean would not cooperate and was not intimidated by their threats.[13]

Dean later said he had tried to commit suicide because he feared he would break under torture and divulge critical intelligence to the North Koreans, such as the plans for Operation Chromite, of which he had been aware.[1] Still he remained defiant during interrogations, refusing to divulge any information and acting unafraid, sometimes laughing off threats.[62]

When Dean returned to the United States, he received a hero's welcome and was presented with a number of decorations, including the Medal of Honor, which he was unaware he had been awarded. Dean maintained he did not think his own experience was particularly heroic and asserted he did not feel he deserved an award for his actions in Korea.[1]

So in summary, somewhat similar to what happened to Gen. Sychevoi (if it is indeed him) but with some very major and important differences. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

It seems Russia's retaliation has all of unoccupied Ukraine without power

That should just increase the Ukrainians’ resolve. If Russians are doing this to them now, imagine what they will be doing to them if they are able to overrun enough of their country. And if they are able to do that, imagine what they then will do.

I am 100% confident this is just a photoshop of the Earth at Night composite that NASA did like a decade ago.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_earth_at_night.jpg

Apologies if that is the case

Accepted if and only if you reveal the provenance of the fake image. And of course it's fake because it is at once too perfect and a very inefficient way to power a very large nation. It would be like Niagra Falls powering the entire east coast.

The map is too "perfect" to be real, as others have noted, also because it doesn't jibe with the reality that power grids don't adhere exactly to national borders, and they especially wouldn't in Ukraine, which was part of the USSR until 1991. Also note that we've had reports of outages in Belgorod, which is fully lit up on that map.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Also, there are rumors of a third task force ready to strike towards Melitopol and try to make Kherson into a truly grand pocket. Might actually exist, might be deliberate rumors to try and spread the panic of the rout southwards.

The Wagner Group and Girkin spread these rumours publicly before the Ukrainians did. If it's a psyop, it's a psyop involving manouevres on the ground.

Girkin reminds me of Captain America in Generation Kill in that he flips out whenever the Ukrainians do anything, so it's quite possible he's created Joint Force Melitopol in his own mind and other sources are just picking up on him.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103416935923714
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103429342629890
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103438830374912
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570173183155916800

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

And you better bet you are going to leave the graveyard and morgues alone! Seriously? I’ve said this from the beginning but it’s really hard to tell this war apart from something like Family Guy, Archer, or any Mel Brooks movie.

It’s like if Enemy at the Gates were a dark comedy.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103416935923714
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103429342629890
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1570103438830374912
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1570173183155916800

Interesting pep talk, "This is worse than Stalingrad".

Also note no drink/drugs or sexual relations with women, men, flora and fauna. I was half expecting "We may be murderers and thieves but we aren't the Russian army!"

And you better bet you are going to leave the graveyard and morgues alone! Seriously? I’ve said this from the beginning but it’s really hard to tell this war apart from something like Family Guy, Archer, or any Mel Brooks movie.

It’s like if Enemy at the Gates were a dark comedy.

Is it too soon for Mike Judge to make a Stalingrad film?

If 20 years from now, Russia is even slightly less oppressive than it is now, I'm guessing we'll get quite a few movies from Russia about the current war in this vein.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Freudian slip?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1570386579172085761?s=20&t=hzY80qSE9-6f...

Xi undoubtedly has some about the Russian army's poor performance

[Stranger in a strange land]

Crazy thought. What would it take to shoot down GLONASS?

Not worth it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

[Stranger in a strange land]

Shoigu says Russia lost around 6K KIA and said that Ukraine lost 61K KIA.  Note that Shoigu's number does not include various auxiliary unit losses (Donsesk republics militias, Wagner group, and other various nonformal Russian military units).  It seems reasonable if you take Shoigu at his word, the total KIA on the Russian side should be tripled since the Donsesk republics militias are taking the brunt of a lot of the fighting and losses and man-for-man are just less effective than formal Russian units.

HHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

If you take Shoigu at his word, then I have bridge to sell you. It's a real nice one, just some holes from HIMARS impacts. Now, you also obviously shouldn't take sources like Ukrinform, UATV, or even the UK intelligence assessments at their word either, as they have bias in the other direction. At the very least it stands to reason that the Russian MoD would be similarly biased.

Shoigu's number on Ukraine KIA of 61K looks funny since he also claims Ukraine lost 40K wounded.  I would expect the ratio of these two numbers (wounded vs KIA) to be more like 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 and not .66 to 1.

My sense is that Shoigu's estimates of Russian KIA are most likely accurate (if you triple the number to take into account other auxiliary unit losses) but his Ukraine numbers are most likely bogus and would overesimate Ukraine KIA.

There is no way the Russian armed forces (again even not counting Spearatist, Rogvardia, Wagner, Chechens, or other paramilitary and irregular forces) only have 6K KIA.

Lets start with vehicle losses visually confirmed by Oryx:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html. He lists 3,844 destroyed Russian vehicles. If we assume 1 KIA per vehicle (it's likely much higher, since Russian tanks are known to have poor survivability, and the chance of a crewman surviving a catastrophic ammo explosion and turret launch is essentially 0, but let's be as generous as possible to Russia for this exercise). Let's further assume that only half the vehicles were crewed by RF regular forces (an obviously incorrect and overly generous assumption, but let's go with it). Let's further assume that damaged and abandoned vehicles yielded 0 KIA. Even with this extremely generous set of assumptions, we still get 1,722 KIA just from destroyed vehicles, with the real total likely being at least 3-6 times higher because of the generous assumptions above. But even with the 1.7K absolute minimum figure, that's already nearly a third of the figure given by Shoigu, and we all know infantry do most of the dying in most wars.

We also know that the VDV (who are all regulars) suffered very high losses, with many being killed due to the nature of their operations and training. So at least several hundred KIA from those operations.

We also need to count:
- Very deadly urban fighting in Mariupol and other cities, even if mostly done by separatists and Wagner, at least some of the dead have to be infantry or artillerymen not already accounted for above
- Personnel aboard the Moskva. Of course the Russian navy still lists most of them as "missing" (probably to avoid counting them in figures like the one Shoigu gave), but anyone still listed as "missing" has to be presumed dead at this point.
- Soldiers killed huge explosions from HIMARS & artillery strikes on ammo dumps: again, these would likely be listed as "missing" since in many cases no remains could be recovered because the powerful explosions would literally vaporize them. Even if these were mostly private contractors or separatists, many would still be regular soldiers, especially since these are non-combat roles where Russia could more easily use conscripts.

[Stranger in a strange land]

A lot of revision and mindless "ASIATIC HORDES BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER" which was a common German trope during WWII.

"The invincible Aryan Wehrmacht only lost to the Asiatic hordes because Stalin had more men than Hitler had bullets" is a totally different argument from "Russia can't even properly supply the army it's deployed to Ukraine, what makes you think they can supply an even bigger one?"

Ukraine has been in mobilization since the conflict started, and it has shown to be hugely effective. There has been no indication Russia can't do this yet, so spare your conclusion for the war already.

Tons of indications:
- Huge supply problems: troops being issued expired MREs, rotting low-quality tires, 65 km convoys because the rail networks were snarled up, huge amounts of rolling stock being captured along with weapons and vehicles during the Kharkiv offensive, etc......
- HIMARS hitting ammo dumps forcing them to be dispersed and distributed less efficiently

Some of you probably know about the History Youtuber TIK. And while yes, he's a bit of a crank when it comes to politics and macroeconomics, his analysis of campaigns and logistics is spot-on. Here's his answer to a question asking if so many German soldiers being tied up garrisoning occupied Western Europe during World War II hindered their operations on the Eastern Front: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQoPDNPhwF4. I encourage everyone to watch the video in its entirety because it's both helpful for understanding World War II history and has a lot of lessons that can be applied to the current war. The long and the short of it is that even if the forces in Western Europe had been deployed against the USSR, it wouldn't have helped because Germany couldn't even supply the forces that it had deployed. Russia is in the same situation. It thinks it's re-fighting World War II as the Soviet Union, but it's actually fighting as Nazi Germany.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609

Incredible if true. I thought Russia would come up with plausible numbers so that gullible morons in the West could fall for it but nope. It's a ****  you, we're North Korea figure.

Looking for ucks for these “people” to give? YOU LOSE

They didn't do this for the Crimea referendum (where it's likely that a majority, even if not an overwhelming one, would have voted to join Russia in a truly free and fair referendum - certainly NOT the case here), so why would they do it now?

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

"The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine"

*Googles which companies manufacture artillery shells
*Goes to Robinhood

[Stranger in a strange land]

BREAKING

Unconfirmed, treat accordingly.

Bad if true. Although Belarus is pathetic militarily, it would force UA to pull back troops to defend the north.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1575502337992724481

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1575450978685444104?

Opposition to the war is nearly unanimous in Belarus - unlike in Russia - even among people who otherwise support the regime. The Belarusian army is even more corrupt, poorly funded, and reliant on conscripts than the russian one. Lukashenko is inviting his army to mutiny and overthrow him if he does this.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/CarlSchreck/status/1577268082690908160

I can't believe they passed up the opportunity to go for a classic, epic headline like "Cannibal Demands More Bodies".

[Stranger in a strange land]

 
Ukraine's setting the bar for talks high may be seen as something of a gamble, or maybe not. It's based on very strong confidence in their ability to continue pushing back the Russians. That seems reasonable in the wake of Russian defeats that I long expected. Of course, if things reverse, then Ukraine might find itself with difficult options.

Everything I've seen, when put together, suggests that Ukraine's hard line here makes sense in context. At the same time, what you say is true - if you want this war to end sooner and that's literally the only thing that goes into the equation, it actually makes sense to put more pressure on Ukraine. Problem with that approach might be, to use a Chinese civil war analogy - is that it would be akin to the US cutting off support for the Nationalists to pressure them to get to the table in the 1940s (a decision that probably harmed US interests in the long run).

I think it is mostly about signaling to his population and allies that he is all in and there is no retreat.  Putin did the same by annexing the 4 oblasts.  In a long-term attritional war making the case to your own side about the war existential is critical to ensure cohesion and sacrifice. 

That kind of thinking does make sense for winning one's objectives. And that's especially true in a conflict with this kind of quality.

In the end, neither side is prioritizing bringing the war to an end as soon as humanly possible; they are prioritizing shaping whatever the world will look like when the war actually ends in their favor.

Particularly in Ukraine, it would be a big hazard for Zelensky if he just laid down his arms and acted weak, especially with the war has developed. His public image would never recover and he doubtless does not want to see his country lose land like this, on a personal level. He wants those eastern portions back in the fold. Additionally, Russia going forward with annexations only amplifies the number of things that have been said and would have to be taken back and that does represent a unique step in this conflict. (Yes, these lands were annexed by Russia in the 1700s, but that was an entity that had Ukrainians in its umbrella.)

An argument could be made that the wars of Justinian in taking Italy killed the spirit of Rome; and one could likewise say that the wars of Putin killed the spirit of the Soviet Union.

One can only hope.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1578767684556111873

I read a rumor about him that back in 2004 he chewed out a Colonel publically so badly the Colonel in question committed suicide on the spot with his handgun.

If that story is even true (I have no idea, but it sounds a little too Hollywood to be real), it doesn’t reflect well on him.