Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Stranger in a strange land]

Who could have possibly guessed that entrusting a large part of your Special Military Operation to a corporation that calls itself "Wagner Private Military Company", has a skull on its logo, and is led by and mostly employs ex-convicts could possibly end badly?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obviously, this is pretty low on the list of priorities today. But I can help thinking - what on earth are defectors like Edward Snowden and Tara Reade thinking, let alone doing, today.

How to ingratiate themselves with the new boss probably

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1672961619029118978?s=20

The whole idea that authoritarian states are better-suited for long attritional wars than democratic ones is already rebutted by the pretty obvious counter-example of World War I, where Britain and France, which were reasonably Democratic for the time, outlasted the German, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires, which weren't. It's interesting that International Relations Theorists put so much focus into studying the outbreak of World War I, but far fewer talk about its end, and even when they do, it's usually to analyze how the final peace settlements set the stage for World War II and the Middle East Conflicts.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1674080451181289474?s=20

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1674080500221202433?s=20

The favorite narratives of those who are anti-arming Ukraine or even pro-Russian are that:
1) Russian victory is inevitable and arming Ukraine only prolongs the bloodshed
2) Aiding Ukraine is an escalation which could lead to nuclear war

The Wagner coup, even though it wasn't successful, undermines both because a side that's confident in victory isn't going to have to deal with coup attempts and mutinies, and it shows that Putin is so weak and disrespected that an order from him to launch nukes might not even be obeyed.

[Stranger in a strange land]

PLEASE

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1674175847190654978

Per the article:

“ That is according to a number of Iranian outlets, which reported the news on Monday night, apparently citing the Russian state news agency Sputnik.”

And I’m 90% sure that the source for “a number of Iranian outlets” is r/NonCredibleDefense, since this has been a meme on there for a while

I hope Putin does appoint Segal, but I would take this with several mines of salt. However Segal would probably run the Russian MOD more competently than Shoigu does (much like the average person pulled off the street would) just because he’s less likely to engage in graft, bribery, and favoritism on the same scale.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/nepali-gurkhas-joining-russia-s-wagner-group-amid-lack-of-recruitment-opportunities-in-indian-army-report/amp-11687830362756.html

"Nepali Gurkhas joining Russia’s Wagner Group amid lack of recruitment opportunities in Indian Army: Report"

India recently changed rules on army recruitment which de facto cut down dramatically the number of Nepali Gurkhas it takes in.  It seems they are going to join Wagner instead

There have been reports like this from similar media outlets since a few months into the conflict, but they always seem to amount to nothing:
- At one point, "40,000 Syrian volunteers" were on their way to fight on the Russian side, but none ever turned up in Ukraine.
- At various times, Wagner has been reported to be attempting to recruit US-trained Afghan commandos to fight in Ukraine, but again, none have turned up. And this one is possibly less logical than hiring Gurkhas: if they wouldn't fight to defend their own country, what makes Putin or Prigozhin think they would fight for Russia?
- Wagner Group (or someone claiming to be them) ran an ad on InfoWars attempting to recruit American veterans, but I'm not aware of any who went to fight for them.

Also, completely leaving aside the fact that few if any of them know Russian, does the Gurkhas' reputation in the modern era have any basis other than martial races nonsense or the fact that they use a cool knife?

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1678962349233905664
The absolute worst mistake that a “non-western” or “peripheral western” (ex: Latin America; Eastern Europe) nation can do is start believing they’re western and acting like it in these foreign meetings as if they will be seen or treated as such.

Even countries like Poland or other Eastern European, who are part of NATO when Ukraine isn’t, are aware on some level that they aren’t western or western enough for the wills of EU or US no matter how much they cater to what they want or expect.

What strikes me about Zelenskyy is how even before the war he acted like he had all these powerful countries in his bag just because he antagonized Russia. Like that would make them instantly part of the same club and they would suddenly be the best of friends chatting, playing together and going to the movies.

Being useful just doesn’t mean having an unconditional friendship. It never will. In the end pf the day for these people Ukraine is still mostly only a way to weaken Russia, without a real strategic value that would really make them put their heads out of their comfort zone to protect - which I think it would be the case for Taiwan for the US.

Why would Zelensky be in the 2nd photo? Those are the leaders of member states, which Ukraine isn't, and Ukraine obviously isn't going to be admitted while an active war is going on on its territory.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1678962349233905664
The absolute worst mistake that a “non-western” or “peripheral western” (ex: Latin America; Eastern Europe) nation can do is start believing they’re western and acting like it in these foreign meetings as if they will be seen or treated as such.

Even countries like Poland or other Eastern European, who are part of NATO when Ukraine isn’t, are aware on some level that they aren’t western or western enough for the wills of EU or US no matter how much they cater to what they want or expect.

What strikes me about Zelenskyy is how even before the war he acted like he had all these powerful countries in his bag just because he antagonized Russia. Like that would make them instantly part of the same club and they would suddenly be the best of friends chatting, playing together and going to the movies.

Being useful just doesn’t mean having an unconditional friendship. It never will. In the end pf the day for these people Ukraine is still mostly only a way to weaken Russia, without a real strategic value that would really make them put their heads out of their comfort zone to protect - which I think it would be the case for Taiwan for the US.

The statement below is complete malarkey because if they weren't "western enough for the wills of EU or US" then why were they let into NATO and the EU at all? Eastern European countries like Poland wanted to join NATO so they'd have the security of having Articles 5, which would prevent their countries from (once again) being invaded by Russia. This is the same reason why Ukraine currently wants to join NATO.

"Even countries like Poland or other Eastern European, who are part of NATO when Ukraine isn’t, are aware on some level that they aren’t western or western enough for the wills of EU or US no matter how much they cater to what they want or expect."

The reason the "these people" won't let Ukraine join NATO right now is because that would immediately bring NATO directly into the conflict. This isn't some cynical plan to weaken Russia by sacrificing Ukraine, as this was a war of choice on the part of Russia. Ukraine is simply trying to survive and it's completely fair for its government to want NATO membership as soon as possible in order to guarantee the nation's survival.

It's just not realistic for a military alliance add a country currently at war with that alliance's main adversary. Do the American, British, French, Italian, Dutch, Canadian, etc. publics want to see their nation's soldiers fighting and dying in Ukraine? In the end, that's why Ukraine was only given a vague promise of NATO membership once undefined conditions allow.

Also RE the first photo I just learned on another forum that the lady in the blue dress is Zelensky’s wife. That completely changes the context of the photo: any guy who’s ever been to a party with his wife or long-term girlfriend knows the feeling.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1678962349233905664
The absolute worst mistake that a “non-western” or “peripheral western” (ex: Latin America; Eastern Europe) nation can do is start believing they’re western and acting like it in these foreign meetings as if they will be seen or treated as such.

Even countries like Poland or other Eastern European, who are part of NATO when Ukraine isn’t, are aware on some level that they aren’t western or western enough for the wills of EU or US no matter how much they cater to what they want or expect.

What strikes me about Zelenskyy is how even before the war he acted like he had all these powerful countries in his bag just because he antagonized Russia. Like that would make them instantly part of the same club and they would suddenly be the best of friends chatting, playing together and going to the movies.

Being useful just doesn’t mean having an unconditional friendship. It never will. In the end pf the day for these people Ukraine is still mostly only a way to weaken Russia, without a real strategic value that would really make them put their heads out of their comfort zone to protect - which I think it would be the case for Taiwan for the US.

So why then did the UK, which is indisputably both "White" and "Western" even by your contrived, weird, restrictive standard, vote to leave the EU, while Poland and even Hungary* show no signs of wanting to do so, and even a country like Turkey wants in? Probably because the poorer Eastern members benefit massively from economic integration with larger, richer members like Germany, while the UK didn't, and the cost-benefit analysis of being in the EU didn't make sense to voters. Not that they should have done it, but Brexit at least somewhat makes sense from a "MUH SOVREGINTY - Let's spend the money on the NHS instead of sending it to Hungary" perspective, while leaving the EU would wreck the economy of Poland, Hungary, or even Greece. Membership in organizations, unions, and alliances tends to be about pragmatism and the cost-benefit analysis of membership, not vague notions of cultural similarity or prestige, especially in the modern era.

*Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia are Western under any reasonable definition and the only reason people think otherwise is because they were behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War, but that's a topic for another discussion.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

Putin has been saying that since the beginning of the war, and the collective response from the Russian people has been to sit on their behinds. Heck, even when the Kremlin was being firebombed, and when rebels were approaching Moscow, he still couldn't motivate Russians to get off their behinds. So Ukraine changing its church calendar will?!

Also, despite all the talk of BASED TRAD ANTI-WOKE Russia being the "Last Fortress of Christendom" and the conservative counter to Woke America, Russia's rates of Church Attendance and Belief in God are on par with the rest of Europe, most marriages end in divorce, and the abortion rate is the highest in the world.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why is SA doing this again? I ask because they last thing it did was prop Putin up by cutting oil production. Is it because they are annoyed that Putin is cheating in the deal by exceeding his quota or something else?

How dependent is Russia on the Black Sea for trade? Up go the insurance rates anyway, way up.

Do they (or their regional allies) get a lot of grain from Ukraine perhaps?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Not as bad as Seymour Hersh‘s “poor waif in his underwear” moment

This is what happens when a lazy journalist hires guys from Russia or Asia as ghostwriters for a penny.

What happened to Hersh is likely far more sinister. An FSB operative claiming to be an US official reached out to him pretending to want to leak information (that just so happened to confirm all of Hersh's ideas and suspicions), and Hersh, who's 86, was completely fooled. If "Special Agent John Martin from the IRS" calls an elderly person telling them that they owe back taxes, the fact that he has a thick Indian accent and requests payment via Western Union transfers or iTunes gift cards doesn't ring any alarm bells.

[Stranger in a strange land]

So June was the best month since November for Ukraine. But yet they gained only 0.04% and Russia occupies 17.5%, so it looks like it'd take at least 35 years  for Ukraine to take back all the territory at this rate.

Last year they made significant advances in September-November - could the same happen again?

It's always possible but that doesn't mean it's likely.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I don't know why people are assuming that Ukraine stopped it's suicide attacks after June. Presumably because it's so much of a common sight now, it's not worth posting videos.

There are weekly released footage from around Robotyne. I alone must have seen a dozen destroyed Leo 2s now, and dozens of Bradleys and Soviet BMPs turned to scrap. Those are not actions of "taking it slow". They just flat out are unable to advance.

From what I can gather, the Ukrainians were likely expecting to be occupying Robotyne last month.

If Ukrainian tanks, especially Western-designed ones, are destroyed, it's ALL OVER pro-Russian Telegram and Twitter. The infamous Bradley pile-up back in June that's been discussed here today and yesterday was photographed from multiple different angles and claimed to be different incidents. Now I'll concede that the same could be happening with destroyed Russian equipment, but Russia suffering heavier losses, even while defending, would be consistent with their army's performance so far in this war, and would also partly explain why Ukraine is advancing more slowly. Now for that, there is also of course a more compelling reason: the Ukrainian advance runs into Russian minefields and air power, especially attack helicopters. They have lots of troops and equipment in reserve, but there's no point in bringing them forward if they'll just charge straight into minefields and Russian helicopter attacks. Ukraine at least seems to be learning from Russia's defeat at Vulehdar during the winter and their own Bradley pile-up earlier in the offensive. Of course, that makes the question of how to actually advance much more difficult, and they don't seem to have solved it yet.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/InsiderNews/status/1691757327978836106

I kind of wonder why they didn’t do this before-band, or just configure old obsolete vehicles as drones and drive them remotely into minefields

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://cnn.iprima.cz/kdo-je-schopen-znasilnit-dokaze-bojovat-i-za-svou-vlast-prohlasil-zeman-k-pripadu-z-plzne-409591

"Zeman on the Pilsen case: Whoever is capable of rape can fight for the homeland. He also admitted his mistake"

The former president of the Czech Republic Zeman condemned the Ukrainian 'refugees' who flooded the country because a bunch of them seem to be able-bodied males.  One of them was arrested for rape and Zeman indicated that if they can rape they can go back to fight the Russians.

It's the usual far right narrative of a regular post-Marxist against any immigrants. Let's start with the fact that the Ukrainian authorities don't let men out of the country who can serve in the army.

So I have no idea about the particulars of this case and the article is in Czech, but the exit ban isn't absolute: disabled men, men over 60, men with more than three children, single fathers, men with legal residency in other countries or valid student visas from before the war. Not to mention that pre-war Ukraine experienced huge out-migration and much of the workforce was already abroad.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/region776/status/1694714655153996162?s=12
The WSJ couldn’t even spring for a current US official for a clickbait doom article. (Also got this is before a certain yellow-NY avatar posted it lol)

"It doesn't exist" LOL

Yes, I know the image is from 2020. Only a small fraction of what's visible has been sent to Ukraine, and most of it will realistically never be returned to US service because it won't be useful in any possible future war with China, and the Army needs to keep General Dynamics Land Systems & BAE's production lines running. I'm not going to type something like "Sierra Army Depot current imagery" into Google because I don't want to end up on a list. Covert Cabal did a video on this recently where he purchased recent satellite imagery and came to a similar conclusion.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/essay/the-case-for-negotiating-with-russia

"The Case for Negotiating with Russia"

This would help end it faster, avoiding unnecessary casualties. Just as the military deadlock was evident in Korea, as it is now in Ukraine

"I don't necessarily think Ukraine has to make concessions. I just don't see an alternative to how this all ends

You realize that the first and second quotes here contradict, right? Ending the war in a Korea-style deadlock would absolutely be a concession by Ukraine, and it would either lead to the conflict being re-opened in 10-20 years with another invasion (since Russia doesn't completely control any of the oblasts that it "annexed", the justification is already there, at least under Russian Law), or a long-term standoff with the constant risk of war. Interesting that you almost never hear "end the war now to avoid further bloodshed" from actual Ukrainians, even though they're the ones suffering the most from the war.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Yevgeny Prigozhin might be alive...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-boss-prigozhin-resourfaces-dismisses-reports-of-his-elimination-in-new-video/ar-AA1g2Ryb?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=f8f0a6a7c52b48b1ca6aa1dc113bf2aa&ei=6

It's entirely possible Prigozhin filmed a video like this to be released in the event of his death in order to sow confusion. He must have known (or at least suspected) it was coming.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Funny how Ukrainians are so eager to use depleted uranium on their own land which they hope their own people will live on in the future.

And what does that tell you about how dangerous depleted uranium actually is?

[Stranger in a strange land]

And the Cuban government chose to publicly announce it, rather than deny it as "imperialist propaganda". Note that they also called it a "war", which would be illegal in Russia. A sign, perhaps, that the Cuban authorities realize that - just like in the 1990s, Russia is no longer reliable as their sugar daddy.

Most likely their economic relationship with the EU is too important to jeopardize over something that would bring them little to no tangible benefit.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://news.italy24.press/world/849980.html

"Kiev takes it out on the Pope again. According to Zelensky’s chief advisor, Francis is “pro-Russian”. “He is not credible to mediate”"

Zelensky’s chief advisor says Pope is pro-Russian.  Even if this is true just saying that is not wise given the Pope's stature with Catholics worldwide. Another great chapter of "making friends and influencing people"

Please forgive me for not trusting a source that calls the Pope "Dad Francis".

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/russian-budget-swings-to-surplus-despite-plunging-energy-revenue

"Russian Budget Swings to Surplus Despite Plunging Energy Revenue"

The surplus in August reached almost 456 billion rubles ($4.7 billion) in one of the biggest monthly hauls this year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published on Friday. At a televised government meeting just hours earlier, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin put the latest surplus at 230 billion rubles.

Just to be clear, this is a feature of a weak RUB.   The Russian government has a tradeoff policy nob when it comes to the RUB.  A strong RUB means lower inflation but a greater budget deficit.  A weaker RUB means higher inflation but a better picture of the budget deficit.  This became a problem earlier in 2023 when energy fell and a strong RUB hammered the Russian fiscal picture so a need to shift to a weak RUB was needed even if that meant higher inflation.

Energy prices are back up.  If the Russian government expected it to stay up then it will most likely move RUB to be stronger to help on the inflation front.  They do not seem to be doing that which means they expect the world economy to be weaker than expected later in 2023 and 2024 in which case energy prices will fall again and the RUB needs to stay weak to keep the Russian budget deficit in check.

What a bunch of scrooges, they prefer to lose the war rather than run a budget deficit.

Running a deficit requires people willing to lend you money.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1699834033222611355?s=20

Wonderful work from our great intelligence community!

Truth has value.
Honesty is rewarded.
That being said, I doubt this was actually created by the CIA, or if it was, they made it to make their Russian counterparts paranoid and mistrustful, not to actually fish for information or leaks. Others in this thread would have better insights than me as to whether it would actually be effective.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1701246932557943004

And the transport costs to China are probably higher too, right?