AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[McGovernForPrez]

I have to say Nova, looking at those voter turnout numbers in Sun City versus Mirage strong indicates this seat will stay Republican.

I still don't see how this race could possibly be remotely close. +8 Lesko is about the best I can see for democrats here.

I suppose the one thing Dems could hope for here is that Hiral's platform focused improving healthcare plays well with a significant portion of the senior population in Sun City.

[McGovernForPrez]

Also Emerson is the polling firm that had Moore + 8, so they seem to be a junk polling firm anyways. Idk if the firm Tipi used is good but it had the race at 46-46 with 8% people refusing to say so that's probably junk as well.

Emerson is such a junk tier firm. It's 2018 and they still don't poll by cell phone. Also it's worth noting that as a result of this they tend to lean Republican.

[McGovernForPrez]

Vote by mail states are no fun on election night.

[McGovernForPrez]

Yes but just because a republican is voting doesn’t mean they are voting for the republican

In every special election so far, the average gop share of the vote the dem received has been 14%

How are you calculating this? Do you mean based on polling?

[McGovernForPrez]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

Where do you get this information from?

Just assuming it based on results

If, in a deep red district, the dems get their side and reps get their side, and the dem wins, it’s because of a massive margin among indies must have happened

You're ignoring turnout though. That can make a big difference.

[McGovernForPrez]

I think had this district been not been VBM Lesko would've lost.