51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Hampshire is shaping up to be a bad year for the entire Republican party besides Chris Sununu. Almost nothing indicates that Trump can flip the state this year, as polling which was very accurate in the granite state in 2016 now places Trump trailing outside the margin of error. This well educated and wealthier state with a large population of suburban moderates is just not ripe for Trump to flip this time. Expect the Boston suburbs in the south of state (where most of the population is) to swing towards Biden moderately, as well as the areas along the Connecticut river. This is the vast majority of the population in the state, and hence makes it out of bounds for Trump to improve, as he may hold ground up north in places like coos, if not even expanding a bit in some swaths of towns, but it will be in vain.



+0.37 Clinton to +5.15 Biden (4.78 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

NJ is a safe D state, but a little more interesting than at first glance. Biden is very likely to modestly improve there over Hillary do to the widening north south divide of the state that, with the more populous north moving towards Biden. Biden should be expected to do very well in suburban Karenland like Morris and Somerset counties. The south is trending more rightward though, and a narrow flip in Gloucester county is probably within the deck right now, even as Trump may improve in some places like cape may county. Regardless, this will not be nearly enough to swing the state towards him, as Biden and congressional democrats in the state are headed towards a good year.



+14.10 Clinton to +17.94 Biden (3.84 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Mexico? More like Blue Mexico. Any chance (which was already next to 0% to begin with) of Trump winning the state, as per former Trump campaign senior adviser for data and digital operations (and arrested wife beater) Brad Parscale's dreams, has quickly dissipated into a safe D rating. People who voted for Gary Johnson here can be expected to break even more towards Biden than in other states, as Biden swings most areas of the state modestly towards him (especially Bernanillo and the northern solid D counties) Trump may improve a little out east in the areas with no hope for democrats, and an oil industry only concentrating into more red areas. This will not be enough to swing the state towards him though. Neither candidate is a particularly strong fit for the state, though I may be underestimating Biden by a bit. Keep in mind that a lot of the shades shifting darker for Trump do not necessarily indicate margin improvement, rather being so close to the next shading group which will inevitably bump him over in some places with less third party vote this time.



+8.22 Clinton to +12.29 Biden (4.07 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Mexico? More like Blue Mexico. Any chance (which was already next to 0% to begin with) of Trump winning the state, as per former Trump campaign senior adviser for data and digital operations (and arrested wife beater) Brad Parscale's dreams, has quickly dissipated into a safe D rating. People who voted for Gary Johnson here can be expected to break even more towards Biden than in other states, as Biden swings most areas of the state modestly towards him (especially Bernanillo and the northern solid D counties) Trump may improve a little out east in the areas with no hope for democrats, and an oil industry only concentrating into more red areas. This will not be enough to swing the state towards him though. Neither candidate is a particularly strong fit for the state, though I may be underestimating Biden by a bit. Keep in mind that a lot of the shades shifting darker for Trump do not necessarily indicate margin improvement, rather being so close to the next shading group which will inevitably bump him over in some places with less third party vote this time.



+8.22 Clinton to +12.29 Biden (4.07 margin swing dem)

I still think Valencia goes to Biden. Yes it has the longest streak of voting for the election winner but the main reason Trump did well here was the third party vote. If most of the Gary voters vote for Biden, I could see Valencia flipping ever so slightly.

Yeah I have it very tight like 48-47 Trump, deffo could flip though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New York is a state that Biden has emerged as a stronger fit for than I first expected. Biden is doing well with working class white folk who often went for Obama, and there is a good chance he rebounds a bit upstate. Biden should also be expected to continue making strong gains in wealthy suburbs like Westchester. This is all good news for the nearby state of Pennsylvania, and further up not bordering Maine 2nd congressional district. There really aren't many areas Trump can be expected to gain in, and frankly this prediction might be being a little too generous to Trump, as at best he could maybe stall out Biden gains in places like the Bronx, which are maxxed out for democrats. All in all, this should be a good night for democrats in the state, as they seek to hold onto 4! congressional districts that Trump won. The republicans really are trying their best to drop the ball hard in these seats though, especially NY 19th where they have run an absolutely broke and weak campaign thanks to D tier candidate
@Kyle4Congress as well as NRCC incompetence, courtesy of Tom Emmer.



+22.49 Clinton to +26.29 Biden (3.80 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You have Biden beating LBJ's 1964 NY vote total of 4,913,156

I mean New York is substantially larger than then. Also, I still have Biden winning less than Obama both times. I only have turnout ticking up a little more than 2% from 2016. I just have third party share breaking more towards Biden, while Trump stays stagnant.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Curious about your North Carolina analysis. Hopefully that'll make predicting who wins it easier for me.

It will have Trump ahead by a hair.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Might as well flip a coin for this state, because it's the state I am most unsure about giving to Trump out of all the states I am guessing that Trump will win. In the very end, I expect Trump to take it by a hair, the fairly populous and decent growth rate eastern and western portions of the state not being maxxed out for the GOP yet proves to be Trump's saving grace. Even then, Biden should be expected to gain in places like buncombe in the west and new hanover in the east. Another Achilles heal for Biden in the state that ultimately led me to giving it to Trump is northern rural black areas are losing population, a solid base for democrats. Regardless, Biden should be expected to post decent gains in most of the rest of the state, particularly in the Charlotte and RTP areas, at the very least looks likely to stall out the GOP swing in Robeson for this time, as he has really targeted the area well, and Trump and co. have foolishly neglected to give federal recognition to the Lumbee during their first two trifecta years. Hopefully Biden can change that, which would bring Robeson back into the blue folds, and they would stay for a while despite the surronding area trends (think of how elliott county kentucky held out for so long).

ps. NC polling overestimating dems by a bit also made me tip it to Trump.



+3.66 Trump to +1.36 Trump (2.30 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

North Dakota is just not going to be a state good for democrats this cycle, as everyone knows. Biden will probably be able to swing the state a little towards him because of the national environment at least, but that's about it. Despite the increased color shade in Cass county, it should swing towards Biden, as there were like roughly 12% third party voters last time that should be around 4% ish this time, and with Biden gaining most of them, but Trump gaining enough to bump him from 49.3 to over 50 at least. Biden should also be able to stall out gains in the eastern region of the state, and pick up some ground in the native american reservations, however he should lose some more ground in the western part of the state that is one of the epicenters of the increasing fossil fuel industries in some parts of the country, where almost nothing there looks good for democrats.



+35.73 Trump to +34.48 Trump (1.25 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ohio is a state that Biden could win, but I am still giving it to Trump at the end of the day. Polling is about a tie to narrow edge to Trump in a state moving further to the right that slightly overpolls dems. Regardless, Biden should still perform well, which is a good sign for the states he needs to win in the rust belt. He also looks pretty much set to improve on Hillary statewide and put up a respectable showing instead of her shellacking. Biden's largest gains will come from the Columbus metro area, with healthy gains also to be seen in the cincy area as well. Smaller gains will probably take place in the other non red metro areas of the state as well. One of my hotter takes is that Biden mildly swings most areas of the state towards him, besides the ancestrally GOP rural west and center parts of the state. With this, it was really hard for me to give Trumbull again, and I would not be surprised at all if Biden did actually end up carrying it. While almost guaranteed to be better than 2016, Ohio democrats are still probably going to have a rough year in 2020, and relief does not look all that likely in the long term ahead.



+8.13 Trump to +3.47 Trump (4.66 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oklahoma may not be as bad for democrats as upon first glances. Having said that, it is safe R, and guaranteed to go to Trump again. However, it is almost certain that Biden will close the gap a bit from Hillary's 2016 performance, though this map does not do it justice. Biden could outright win Oklahoma county and it would not surprise me, and it was hard to narrowly give it to Trump again. Biden's improvement can be attributed to his expected gains in the Tulsa, OKC, Lawton, and Stillwater areas, which comprise well over 70% of the state combined, and are also the most growing parts as well. Expect the best swings for Biden to be in Cleveland, Canadian, Oklahoma, and Tulsa counties, in no particular order of the four. Trump may narrowly improve in the remainder under 30% of the state that is much slower in growth but it will not be nearly enough to prevent a swing statewide in favor of Biden. The swing may be a little more pronounced for Trump in the west part of the state with the anadarko basin, which is less ancestrally democratic due to the oil industry there than the eastern part which also makes it slightly more growing and prosperous, and some influxes of pro Trump people moving there. east Oklahoma may even choose to stall out, and move even less than the west, but this is not too certain as of now.



+36.39 Trump to +31.61 Trump (4.78 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'll be stunned if Trump wins Oklahoma county. I don't see that happening at all.

Biden could deffo win it, I have it at like 50-48 Trump rn, so like over an 8.5 margin reduction from 2016.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oregon is safe D for the 2020 presidential and senate races, do not let anyone tell you otherwise. With that being said, it won't be a phenomenal result for democrats. Biden should be expect to improve by a bit due to the national environment, but not too much else. This will mostly come from the greater Portland area, especially with third party consolidation being a statewide phenomenon. Trump should improve in the rural east by a bit, and manage to stall out in the rest of the state, if not even improve a bit on the wwc coast. The state is quite immune to swings lately, and has been incredibly steady margin wise over the past several cycles, especially when compared to other states. Do not expect anything crazy out of it this cycle either.



+10.98 Clinton to +12.92 Biden (1.94 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pennsylvania is literally the keystone state (sorry not sorry) this election. Trump is not quite finished here yet, but I will be flipping it to Biden. This should be a pretty good year for PA Dems, though the GOP should not be counted out for now. Simply put, I expect the gains in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs for Biden too much to overcome for Trump. Same goes for the Harrisburg and Lancaster areas on a smaller scale. I also think Biden will have dead cat bounces in the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre area which can be a hotter take, and the final piece that would end Trump in the state would be failure to gain in the rest of the ruby red Pennsyltucky by either turnout or margin. If Trump stalls out in the rest of the rurals, he does not have that much of a chance, and hence goes on to lose the state. There were some hard calls for me to make, I was really debating on Northampton and who wins it, as well as whether or not Trump could break 60 in washington, and could Biden break 60 in allegheny, so I just split the difference and kept them comparable opposite shades.



+0.72 Trump  to +3.41 Biden (4.13 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What do you anticipate Biden to get in Lackawanna?

53-45 on the more bearish side? What do you think? I'd trust you more on that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rhode Island is a state that is slowly moving to the right, but make no mistake, it is completely safe D this cycle. In addition to that, just because of the national environment and Biden's decent numbers among wwc folks in the northeast, he should be expected to gain in the state from 2016. Still, no large amounts of areas are going to strongly swing towards him, with a fairly modest swing across most of the state, with the best swings being along the wealthier coastal towns, and the smallest swings (if not outright stalling, or dare I say slight improvement for Trump) in the heavy minority areas of places like Providence.



+15.51 Clinton to +19.44 Biden (3.93 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

South Carolina is still a state that is safe for Trump, but it is near inevitable at this point that his margin will fall here. Close races downballot will get dems to turnout in good numbers, as Biden sees his best improvements in the state from the three largest metro areas in the state, with stagnation in most of the rest of the state, and maybe even slightly losing ground in the rural black counties for similar trends to other places like Alabama.



+14.27 Trump to +9.85 Trump (4.42 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

South Dakota will be one of the most boring states that I will map. There is almost nothing worth mentioning in this Mississippi of the north that is just moving to the right. Biden should be able to make a small improvement from 2016 just due to the national environment and third party pattern for this cycle, where less third party vote share will be the norm and helping Biden a bit more. Biden should be able to do most of his improvement in the eastern part of the state, particularly minnehaha county, as well as slight improvements on the native reservation counties, mostly from third party consolidation, but do worse in the more oil friendly western part of the state (with the exception of pennington county which he should close the gap a little there) and that area is less populous than the east, but faster growing so it is able to keep the margin fairly steady, with just a slight improvement for Biden.



+29.79 Trump to +28.20 Trump (1.59 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tennessee will go firmly into Trump's column this election to the surprise of no one serious at all. However, it is highly likely to swing towards Biden modestly, though without serious consequence on any level. Biden's gains should be mainly fueled by improvements in the Nashville metro area, booming in population, and populous as well. Biden should also experience a slight boost in Shelby county with educated white suburbs like Germantown and Cordova moving towards him. Biden should also improve in the smaller dynamic and growing cities and counties of clarksville (montgomery county), knoxville (knox county), and chatanooga (hamilton county). The suburbs around them should remain more stagnant however though. These areas make up around 65% of the state population, and are growing faster than the remaining 35% aside from Shelby county, and thus even though Trump should be expected to slightly improve in the more rural 35%, with mountain republicans coming home in the east, and black populations declining in the rural west, it likely will not be enough to prevent a modest statewide swing for Biden.



+26.00 Trump to +22.56 Trump (3.44 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bagel, it feels like a lot has changed since you started doing these -- such as the gray revolt against Trump. Has anything changed your calculus on states you've called already, or are you sticking to what you have here?

Sticking. If I feel there is a major change, I would edit, but I feel as though this race has been remarkably steady, and I have had the exact same map for over half a year now (besides flipping NE 2nd to Biden a few weeks ago which is reflected in this map).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bagel, it feels like a lot has changed since you started doing these -- such as the gray revolt against Trump. Has anything changed your calculus on states you've called already, or are you sticking to what you have here?

Sticking. If I feel there is a major change, I would edit, but I feel as though this race has been remarkably steady, and I have had the exact same map for over half a year now (besides flipping NE 2nd to Biden a few weeks ago which is reflected in this map).

As a consequence, it's going to age about as poorly as your signature.

That's fine. I've busted my ass off and had plenty of fun making them.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My state tomorrow! Looking forward to your analysis for Williamson, Tarrant, Jefferson, and Nueces.

Our state lol. I'll have Biden winning all but jeffco, and im most unsure about tarrant county. I'll have Trump winning statewide with a bare majority like 50.something to 48.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My state tomorrow! Looking forward to your analysis for Williamson, Tarrant, Jefferson, and Nueces.

Our state lol. I'll have Biden winning all but jeffco, and im most unsure about tarrant county. I'll have Trump winning statewide with a bare majority like 50.something to 48.

I have Biden winning Jefferson and Nueces by hairs. Trump wins Tarrant by a hair and Williamson by an even thinner hair (could be the closest county in Texas percentage wise). I didn't mention Hays on that list since it's pretty much a guaranteed flip now. Also I don't know why I mentioned hair so much but I'd expect those 4 counties (not Hays) to be the closest major counties in the state.

Fair. I am bullish on Williamson, that county is just wow, I can't even fully put into words how it is. I'm bearish in jefferson because it is so stagnant, and heavily reliant on amazing black turnout to win it, also quite heavy in the oil industry, and trending right. I am slightly more bearish on Tarrant because you need good hispanic and black numbers to win it as a dem, and it's not quite as (tbf yes it is a high bar) much in the top tier counties of shift towards dems in the state, but I still think there will be enough karens to put Biden over the top in Tarrant. As for Nueces, I originally had it for Trump because of reliance on hispanics to win it, but the early voting numbers got me to make the jump, and give it to Biden very narrowly.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Texas. So much to say. Honestly, it could go for Biden and I would not even consider it that much of an upset, however I am still narrowly giving it to Trump. Expect further polarization to continue. Biden should post the biggest gains in the exploding DFW area, especially Collin and Denton counties. Same thing for the Houston, except slightly smaller gains, though still heavy ones there too. Biden should also be expected to post large gains in the Austin suburbs, flipping two counties skyrocketing in population. Biden should also be able to post gains in almost all the remaining metro areas, except for Beaumont-Port Arthur, Laredo, and the valley metros. Most of the rest of the state, even the safe blue rural parts of the valley, should swing slightly towards Trump, but this will be of little avail.



+8.99 Trump to +1.97 Trump (7.02 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Utah is a state that does not really have many benchmarks in recently. Biden should still do fairly well though, considering Trump is disliked there, but still Safe R. There will obviously be improvements for Trump almost all across the state because a third party right wing challenger is not a large presence this time. I really do not know much else, and this will be a relatively inconsequential race, just hoping Biden can keep the margins down in the SLC area for McAdams to edge through.




+18.08 Trump to +24.76 Trump (6.68 margin swing rep)