NYT LIVE POLL THREAD: (user search)
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  NYT LIVE POLL THREAD: (search mode)
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Poll
Question: How would you rate the NYT/Siena House polls methodology
#1
A: Freedom Methodology		  
#2
B		  
#3
C		  
#4
D		  
#5
F: Horrible Methodology		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 139

Author Topic: NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:  (Read 138446 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #50 on: September 11, 2018, 03:57:47 PM »
Bryce will be down by 4.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #51 on: September 11, 2018, 05:58:07 PM »
Really hoping for Bryce, but IK he is not favored.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #52 on: September 11, 2018, 10:22:24 PM »
Come on Bryce buddy...
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #53 on: September 11, 2018, 10:23:48 PM »
Who will win, Iron or Steel?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #54 on: September 11, 2018, 10:24:43 PM »
Iron is steel's dad...
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #55 on: September 12, 2018, 03:54:23 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2018, 06:02:50 PM by Prolocutor Bagel23 »
Come on Golden! BTW I think the nyt polls will show at the end for NYT, Polinquin up by around 4 and Crow up by around 3-5.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #56 on: September 12, 2018, 06:28:03 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on September 12, 2018, 06:27:28 PM
VA-07 has been amazingly stable. It's been at Brat +4 for a while and will almost certainly end there since these polls seem to stop at 500 and we're at 490.

So I was right.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #57 on: September 12, 2018, 10:23:00 PM »
Coffman is doing much worse than I imagined. If this holds up and turns out to be similar to the MN 3rd thing, Imma change my rating from tilt R to tilt D just like I did for Paulsen's seat.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #58 on: September 13, 2018, 02:17:18 AM »
Quote from: Dem Senate Majority Folly on September 13, 2018, 01:35:19 AM
The WI-01 results are great news for Walker. Milwaukee burbs are gonna flood the polls for him. A real #Burbstomping.

The GOP is in a statistical tie against even Randy Bryce here, I have no idea how that could be good news, but I guess to each their own.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #59 on: September 15, 2018, 03:32:32 PM »
Beto will most likely carry all three Clinton Republican districts in TX.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #60 on: September 18, 2018, 03:57:53 PM »
My guess is it will end Finkenauer by about 4.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #61 on: September 18, 2018, 08:14:27 PM »
Lol, Finkenauer is castrating Blum like the hog he is XD. She is such a great candidate!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #62 on: September 19, 2018, 12:27:27 PM »
YAY they are doing my home of TX 32nd tonight!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #63 on: September 19, 2018, 03:49:07 PM »
Mu guess is Sessions will be ahead by 4-5 points.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #64 on: September 19, 2018, 05:25:24 PM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 19, 2018, 04:54:56 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on September 19, 2018, 04:46:45 PM
Allred +4. This is a much tougher district for Republicans than TX-23 for obvious reasons. I think Hurd and Allred both win in November.

Given that Culberson was leading in the TX-07 poll and that is a fairly similar district, why do you expect Allred to be leading in TX-32? Sessions is also a stronger incumbent than Culberson (though I am not one to put too much stock in candidate quality, it does make some difference).

Sessions is not much stronger than Culberson. Also I expect Sessions to be ahead by 4-5 at the end of this poll, BUT I also expect Beto to be winning by at least a couple points in TX 32nd as well, I think he will outrun Allred.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #65 on: September 19, 2018, 05:32:10 PM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 19, 2018, 05:30:44 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 19, 2018, 05:25:24 PM
Sessions is not much stronger than Culberson. Also I expect Sessions to be ahead by 4-5 at the end of this poll, BUT I also expect Beto to be winning by at least a couple points in TX 32nd as well, I think he will outrun Allred.

Sessions has much more fundraising and has previously had to run in at least one hotly contested race (against Martin Frost, for one). Culberson has never had a seriously contested race in his life, and has only run in a completely safe district against some-dude level opponents.

Martin Frost was redistricted out to favor the GOP.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #66 on: September 19, 2018, 05:34:01 PM »
Lol I hope they call me.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #67 on: September 19, 2018, 05:37:02 PM »
Response rate is terrible in TX 32nd even more than it usually is NYT’s other polls lol.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #68 on: September 19, 2018, 05:42:27 PM »
Somebody in TX 32nd just respond already, I dont give a hoot even if it’s for Sessions, cause right now we are the worst response rate out of all their polls so far lol.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #69 on: September 19, 2018, 05:47:47 PM »
Finally a first response in TX 32. Fwiw (nothing) it’s for Colin.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #70 on: September 19, 2018, 08:15:33 PM »
The favorabilities are quite interesting as well.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #71 on: September 19, 2018, 09:17:30 PM »
Guys, don't yell at me too much, but these NYT poll results are a little disappointing for dems, at least imo.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #72 on: September 19, 2018, 09:50:49 PM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on September 19, 2018, 09:49:58 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 19, 2018, 09:17:30 PM
Guys, don't yell at me too much, but these NYT poll results are a little disappointing for dems, at least imo.

Apparently you know nothing of the 2006/2010/2014 polls showing incumbents “leading” with 45%

TX 23rd was a big disappoint, and it would be foolish to think it is flipping in 2018.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #73 on: September 19, 2018, 09:59:07 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on September 19, 2018, 09:57:24 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 19, 2018, 09:50:49 PM
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on September 19, 2018, 09:49:58 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on September 19, 2018, 09:17:30 PM
Guys, don't yell at me too much, but these NYT poll results are a little disappointing for dems, at least imo.

Apparently you know nothing of the 2006/2010/2014 polls showing incumbents “leading” with 45%

TX 23rd was a big disappoint, and it would be foolish to think it is flipping in 2018.

Bagel: "Siena has Hurd up 8, safe R"
Bagel: "Siena has Paulsen down 9, weak tilt D"

I'm pretty sure any sane Democrat would take CO-06/IA-01/MN-03 over TX-23. If for no other reason than 3 > 1.

Strong Lean R.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #74 on: September 20, 2018, 07:01:47 PM »
Sessions won’t win by anywhere near 15 barring some massive scandal lol.
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