OH-12 Special Election Predictions

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Balderson 52-46, 6 point win. Oh well, at least he will be in the top 10 most handsome members of congress, it does not take a gay person to acknowledge that Troy Balderson looks really good.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Balderson 52-46, 6 point win. Oh well, at least he will be in the top 10 most handsome members of congress, it does not take a gay person to acknowledge that Troy Balderson looks really good.

LOL

He’s not that attractive. Signed, super gay power bottom.

What does that mean?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Balderson 52-46, 6 point win. Oh well, at least he will be in the top 10 most handsome members of congress, it does not take a gay person to acknowledge that Troy Balderson looks really good.

LOL

He’s not that attractive. Signed, super gay power bottom.

What does that mean?

Are you asking what a power bottom is?

Yes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Balderson 52-46, 6 point win. Oh well, at least he will be in the top 10 most handsome members of congress, it does not take a gay person to acknowledge that Troy Balderson looks really good.

LOL

He’s not that attractive. Signed, super gay power bottom.

What does that mean?

Are you asking what a power bottom is?

Yes.

Hehe. Let’s just say I don’t need to be on top to be the boss.

Oh I see, I mean I think Balderson is a power bottom too, so I guess it would not work out well because he seems like a dominant person too and two persons dominant like that would not work well, so from your perspective I can see.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ok, seriously, DTC is right, this isn't 4chan. And this isn't a spiderman thread. It's a power bottom thread.

But seriously, Bagel + others, if you're going to have an argument about power bottoms, can you please avoid quoting the same huge image over and over and over and over and over again? It makes the page unreadable and takes away from the riveting discussion about power bottoms.

Sorry I'll chill down a bit.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Troy is really great, I'd be tempted to vote for him if I could, but hackery prevails so go O'Connor!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Troy is really great, I'd be tempted to vote for him if I could, but hackery prevails so go O'Connor!

You're so full of crap.

Troy Balderson has a cool name too, you cannot not admit that!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol I'm in a decent spot. If Balderson wins I get to be right and laugh at everyone who called my a troll for thinking Balderson wins by a decent amount, and if O'Connor wins, I will be too busy celebrating to care that I was wrong or any ridicule directed at me.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

People are way overreading into the early vote totals too. The early vote will only be about 10-15% of the total vote if other specials are any indication

I highly doubt there will be 225-340k total ballots cast.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

People are way overreading into the early vote totals too. The early vote will only be about 10-15% of the total vote if other specials are any indication

OH is an early voting state, sort of like the AZ special. These EV mean more than you think.

There were just over 34k early votes plus absentees. There were over 200k votes cast in PA-18 and nearly 200k cast in AZ-8. The early vote numbers are practically meaningless unless election day turnout collapses across the board.

Well not completely meaningless, in a close race a couple thousand votes can make our break it, but I agree we are giving it too much weight, but there won't be close to 200 grand votes in this race either.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm not looking forward to the article headlines and dumb takes when Balderson wins tonight like this one:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cincinnati.com/amp/914633002

I mean come on!! Regardless of the outcome tonight, even a Balderson by 6 win, I can guarantee you that it will not be indicative of a red wave!! It's either these tools are trolls or they simply have no clue what they are talking about!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Balderson got the coveted Brad Wenstrup endorsement, I'm tempted to move this to Balderson by 8 beacuse of this, but I'll hold off for now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Moving this to Balderson + 20 after Bagel23 does his Jedi dance in support of Balderson

I have been tempted to root for Balderson, but hackery wins so I want O'Connor to win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have a feeling we all may be overestimating the green party share of the vote.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am revising my prediction up from Balderson +2 a few weeks ago to O’Connor +1. Balderson is behaving like someone who feels he’s losing.

You think he's holding some internals close to his chest?