WV-03: Williams out

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It will be so beautiful to see a dem in an R +23 district. When can we expect some polling?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, the Guardian did a story on Ojeda, and they said that Ojeda's internal polling shows him having a double digit lead on his most likely GE opponents, granted, most voters are still undecided. Despite this, they were still very vague in their description of the polling offering no numbers or names. Here is the article anyways, it is rather interesting:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/27/could-this-military-guy-democrat-find-a-magic-formula-to-win-back-blue-collar-voters

GO OJEDA! Sappers clear the way, Airborne all the way!

Ps. call me crazy, but I think this race might actually be Lean D with Ojeda at the helm and Jenkins off.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

No way. Manchin should not be throwing money away at pointless stuff like that.

Manchin has millions and millions of bucks. Directly contributing a couple grand to Ojeda's campaign could go a long way.  

Kind of like Flake writing a $100 check to Jones.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Of note: Ojeda was a big backer of the successful strike by the teachers unions.

how will this effect him?

It is definitely a good thing, he is a champion for the working class.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Democrats picking up any R+20 (or higher) District is less likely than Democrats making a triple digit total net gain in the House, in the 2018 elections.

Apparently now all districts completely conform to national cook pvi ratings on all levels at all the time, barring a Mooreing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This race is lean D by my standards now.