AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

From 538, The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrat-is-up-big-in-arizonas-senate-race-for-now/

Sinema is no lock, but it is absolutely R hackish to say that at the end of the day, it will be a pure tossup with no side with a clear advantage. That's baloney, Sinema is the favorite.

Eh, Sinema may be the favorite but the point of the article is that it is silly to take the poll result at face value this far out, with so many convoluting factors. Bear in mind also that people will believe Arizona is purple when they see it - Arizona has been a solidly red state for all of our lifetimes, and even with increasing Democratic competitiveness there it is hard to see it as fully a toss up state yet.

Correct. That's why Ducey and others are rightly favored rn, but this race is different.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Martha McSally hammers Kirsten Sinema in an attack ad focusing on Sinema's anti-war when she protested against military action even after 9/11, describing her as weak on national security while boosting McSally by underlining her military service.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/23/martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-attack-ad-794337

Oof, I feel this one tightening in the favor of McSally, I think Sinema will win 50-48 rn.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/kelliwardaz/status/1034097219752742912

Omg, I can't wait for that b!tch to lose tomorrow.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/kelliwardaz/status/1034097219752742912

Omg, I can't wait for that b!tch to lose tomorrow.

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA she got destroyed!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love this new Sinema ad its so sexy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HxKhiMPKRc

I find it also interesting how whenever Sinema shows pictures with her brother, she always chooses the pictures when he is wearing a blue lives matter shirt. this is the second ad where she has done that,it's definitely a shout out to that crowd.

Freedom ad!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McSally is a mess

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesDakinOwens/status/1044641361729712128

Disgusting. Is she trying to lose?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McSally is a mess

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesDakinOwens/status/1044641361729712128

Disgusting. Is she trying to lose?

There is no need to try. She will lose.

Let's hope so.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am getting less confident about this race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Woah, Sinema could actually do this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When should we know the winner?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/1060702412963569664

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When should we know the winner?

IMHO I think it will be tomorrow.

Thanks.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The race is now Lean D according to 538-

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1061001154031685633?s=21

Sinema, as I predicted prior to the election, will win narrowly. This should be of at least some consolation to the Democrats.

All I know is that we probably only net lost 2 seats (from the looks of az), picked up near 40 in the house, picked up several big governor races, net gained hundreds and hundreds in state legislatures, picked up dozens of state row offices, kept some of my favorite people, passed multiple pro democratic platforms via referendums in many states, etc. Sure, we did not win every race, that never occurs. But if you call that a red wave or whatever you want to call it, go right on ahead. I’m not going to argue it, it’s not of importance to me, and I already made my case one time in the forum community thread can we all agree on one thing? Point is, spin it however you want to, call it whatever, but I’m happy with it, if you call it a red wave or a wash or whatnot, I still like what happened. If what went down is considered winning to fine for the republicans, I’m fine with it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bagel losing ND was expected. MO and IN were within the realm of possibility and they made sense to lose although margins were big. Losing Florida has no excuse in a blue wave year. The margins were still close there so it just looks incompotence. However look what happened to Ohio. Brown barely survives by 5 points and all other candidates are lost. I think Ohio republicans try for a 12-3 gerrymander next decade with how quickly Ohio is going republican.

I actually expected Sherrod to only win by 52-46, the undecideds would break against him. I also had MO and IN flipping. And while I had Nelson winning FL, I also had Morrisey winning WV, so it was really decent by my expectations.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The race is now Lean D according to 538-

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1061001154031685633?s=21

Maybe we should tell Mr. Wasserman that those Figures in Sinema's Home District will come mostly exclusivly from Pima County who has 53K left to count. Pima is Tuscon, Sinemas Home Base.

The Question is: Can Pima withstand the more friendly Maricopa Precincts for McSally coming up.

Sinema represents no part of Pima.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New dump: Sinema up nearly 30,000 votes now and 1.3% over McSally

49.5%   Kyrsten Sinema   Dem   1,045,779   
48.2%   Martha McSally   GOP   1,017,091   
2.3%                          Other   49,396

But muah bucket!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The fact that Sinema and the Green candidate combined have 52% of the vote...

Republicans should be nervous about this state in 2020.

Arizona is the Virginia of the West.

Except AZ Dems Sinema aside don’t make me wanna vomit.

Sinema said that Joe Manchin is her role model.

Does that help?

Sinema is beyond awesome.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wasserman has called the race for Sinema-

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061773342112247808

But muah bucket!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

She has

https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It's over! And thank you to McSally for not being a total jack@$$ (comparatively to others in her party going nuts over these close races) and conceding.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/RepresentMeAZ/status/1062153054454075393

Lol, ok guys I feel a little bad now, just leave them be heh.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/RepresentMeAZ/status/1062153054454075393

Lol, ok guys I feel a little bad now, just leave them be heh.

Didn't McSally and friends run an incredibly nasty campaign?

I mean, I appreciate her not going scorched earth when the votes were being counted, but is that really something we should be giving credit for now? Shouldn't that just be expected of all politicians, or is the bar that low now?

I don't doubt that Virginia, but once the horse is dead, don't keep kicking it hard.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Arizona finished counting and Sinema just fell short of 50%.

She's at 49.97%

Obviously, that doesn't mean anything electorally.

Doug Jones also got 49.97%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Arizona finished counting and Sinema just fell short of 50%.

She's at 49.97%

Obviously, that doesn't mean anything electorally.

Doug Jones also got 49.97%

No, he got 50% on the dot.