AZ-PPP (D): Flake getting crushed by Generic Democrat

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

Thanks for concern trolling. Flake is undoubtedly unpopular and this isn't anything new for him

You are welcome. And you will see Jeff Flake win reelection in 2018, but then make some bs excuse and empty insult against me.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

Flake barely defeated a novice democrat politician in 2012, a massive Obama year. His chances of winning in a year with a president that has a 33% approval rating are very slim.

Still a hispanic military dude he ran against though, very appealing. Arizona is a reddish state, and Flake has that moderate tone, distanced himself from the drumpft quite a bit, and hence will do better in Maricopa county, and is running against a bunch of nobodies in the dem bench so far. Recruit Stanton, Sinema, or Kelly, and then we can talk. Otherwise, Lean R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You are welcome. And you will see Jeff Flake win reelection in 2018, but then make some bs excuse and empty insult against me.

He does that all the time, don't bother. Back on topic... I think a 53/42 win is unlikely given the state's trend, his unpopularity and Trump only winning AZ it by 3 in 2016. I wouldn't underestimate him but I also wouldn't be surprised if he lost narrowly. He doesn't know when to shut up, and has exasperated the Republican base many times (which is a dumb decision in a state like AZ). This poll is obviously nonsense, Flake won't lose by 20 points (and neither will Heller, btw), and he's also not in a worse position than McCaskill. 

Gun to my head, Flake wins by 2-4 while Heller loses by 2-6. AZ is Tilt/Lean R, NV Lean D.

Again, I totally agree that 53-42 is waaay too generous towards Flake against one of the big three potentials in the D primary, but against the current declared bench of nobodies, it's fair.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Fake poll. Flake wins against a generic D 53-42. Ward on the other hand would lose 49-47 vs gen d.

Flake barely defeated a novice democrat politician in 2012, a massive Obama year. His chances of winning in a year with a president that has a 33% approval rating are very slim.

Still a hispanic military dude he ran against though, very appealing. Arizona is a reddish state, and Flake has that moderate tone, distanced himself from the drumpft quite a bit, and hence will do better in Maricopa county, and is running against a bunch of nobodies in the dem bench so far. Recruit Stanton, Sinema, or Kelly, and then we can talk. Otherwise, Lean R.

No one announced against McCaskill either when you were proclaiming her dead... and yes, Flake's numbers are worse than McCaskill's.  And nothing suggests that Flake is at all popular with moderates. Look at any approval rating poll of Flake since he became senator. He's always been unpopular, mostly because he has zero crossover appeal and is a libertarian purist in a state where that's not popular among the Republican base. And him taking an anti-Trump stance has only further endangered his position.

That was what my issue with your 53-42 statement was. That'd be insane, and would indicate he is popular since Generic (D/R) always does better than actual opponents. Flake is nowhere near that position of strength.

Friendly reminder to everyone also: just because a Presidential candidate won a state or district in 2016 doesn't mean that will carry over in 2018. Actually, far from the case

Yeah, totally called her DOA...

Many republicans need to stop calling this DOA, it is far from it, and on the other side, many democrats need to wake up and realize that this is not a shoo in for McCaskill either.

It is starting to look that way, but no DOA yet. Dems have no choice but to fight back, this is a seat worth defending. To just sit back and look dumbfounded in this race is unacceptable, it has to be defended, even if it is an R pickup in the end, this is a seat worth defending.
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Next lie please. Flake's numbers are discouraging, and they are about on par with what I expect from McCaskill, a weaker holdout from both. Had a much better showing in Maricopa county than Trump, he also pulled ahead by a little from Bush and McCain in 2000, 2004, and 2008 CD's. Was also against a decent candidate, now he is facing nobodies. As I said, we can talk if one of the big three enters, till then, Lean R. 10 years from now, Arizona R's will be needing crossover to win statewide, for now, the GOP just has to keep their base united. A dem must have crossover appeal if they are to win statewide in Arizona now, not the other way around. The Krazen's and Maga2020's of the state will still unite behind Flake, but he could have trouble with turnout. That one was somewhat legit.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can't wait for Senator Deedra Abboud ! That would drive MAGA nuts INSANE especially Amy Mek on twitter.

Lol, it's cute that you think she even stands a chance in either the primary or general election. She won't win the primaries, and even if she did, Arizona on the statewide level does not elect people like her...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Flake is no Heller, and in a neutral year, where GOP, will barely hang onto Senate until 2020, Flake can win. We've seen flawed AZ polling in 2016 with McCain. GOP keeps this seat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I want to believe it, but AZ is a toss-up at best for Dems. Also: A poll fifteen months before the election against "generic Democrat" is pretty meaningless.