How safe is Pete Sessions in 2018?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My mom has met him when he came to tour a health facility that she worked at a couple years back, and she described him as one of the most slimy and least sincere individuals she had ever met, she then subsequently voted against him, not that it made a difference because of his entrenchment.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

Well true. I meant 'close' in both comparitive and absolute terms. And history shows that Stinky Pete is unlikely to lose, ever.
It's the Park Cities area that's the real anchor of the GOP lean of the seat. It's extremely richie richie Republican territory. If both University Park and HIghland park were removed, the Clinton margin in the seat probably doubles.

That and Preston Hollow too. And the northeastern part. I'm in the red part of the district, just a little north of preston hollow.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was born, raised, and have lived in this district for all of my life, and I support Collin Allred, but not a chance in hell Sessions loses, sorry. Only way this district could ever flip is if Sessions leaves, and a blue wave year the size of 2008 occurs at the same time, and even then it's a maybe. I might dare to even say that Culberson's district is comparably more vunerable than this one. But he stays too.

2008 was his last close race. 2004 was the only other one which was close for him I think.

57-41 is not close, but comparatively and here, I guess... 2004 was closer, but that was against Martin Frost, so that only partially counts.

Well true. I meant 'close' in both comparitive and absolute terms. And history shows that Stinky Pete is unlikely to lose, ever.
It's the Park Cities area that's the real anchor of the GOP lean of the seat. It's extremely richie richie Republican territory. If both University Park and HIghland park were removed, the Clinton margin in the seat probably doubles.

That and Preston Hollow too. And the northeastern part. I'm in the red part of the district, just a little north of preston hollow.

Ah, yes, that too! Preston Hollow seems to be where GWB lives, and all. Just still more evidence that it's country-club-republican-land.

Definately. The people who turned this thing blue on the presidential level were suburban moms and the high hispanic turnout.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think in some places in the Park Cities, median income breaks 100k.
http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Texas/District-32/Overview

For sure. It is the most conservative and homogenous area in the county, all you will see are mcmansions, mansions, small homes worth tons, boutiques that make whole foods look affordable, land rovers, rampant drug usage in the highschool from rich parents, fancy restaurants with food I cannot pronounce, and everyone dressed the same.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

In general it's kind of a fallacy to assume Clinton district=automatically a winnable one for House Dems. 2016 was weird. TX-32 is still dominated by class-driven patterns. And these rich and upper-middle class people who vote Republican aren't going to stop doing so overnight just because Trump was nominated and elected. They still feel a connection to the Republican brand. Ossoff did well in GA-06, amazingly close, but then again, there was no incumbent on the ballot. Sessions is a country-club republican himself and well aligned with Republican voters in his seat. Hard to see them abondoning him.

Not a winnable race, but still blue in comparison to your district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

In general it's kind of a fallacy to assume Clinton district=automatically a winnable one for House Dems. 2016 was weird. TX-32 is still dominated by class-driven patterns. And these rich and upper-middle class people who vote Republican aren't going to stop doing so overnight just because Trump was nominated and elected. They still feel a connection to the Republican brand. Ossoff did well in GA-06, amazingly close, but then again, there was no incumbent on the ballot. Sessions is a country-club republican himself and well aligned with Republican voters in his seat. Hard to see them abondoning him.

Not a winnable race, but still blue in comparison to your district.

Yes.
I think the best value a good, strong campaign in TX-32 would have, is that it stretches R resources. Let's just nominate Colin and see the Rs sweat, spending money they would have spent elsewhere (esp. TX-23).

Tilt R/Hurd in 23, but definitely winnable, a younger moderate pro life hispanic dem should do the trick.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Man have things changed, since 1 year ago I have moved this thing from Safe R to Tilt R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

TX-32 by education/race:

College White: 30.95%

Non-College White: 24.61%

College Non-White: 12.44%

Non-College Non-White:  32.00%

For a comparison here's VA-10's numbers with a much more vulnerable incumbent that Cook has rated as lean D:

College White: 36.60%

Non-College White: 27.99%

College Non-White: 17.73%

Non-College Non-White:  17.68%

TX-32 is less educated than VA-10, but also much more diverse.    It's still more educated than the nation as a whole.  Comstock can't survive simply because there's too many educated people in her district, while Sessions might be able to as long as the diversity of his district "in combination with the trend of educated whites away from the Republican Party" doesn't overwhelm him.

Its more a factor of the fact Minorities turn out less - particularly Hispanics. So while on paper Comstock's demographics are better, TX-32 has more GOP friendly electorate.

This and also white Texans are less friendly to the democrats than white Virginians.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is seriously entrenched and will run well ahead of where the district's partisan lean would indicate, but he'd still be vulnerable in a wave against the right Democrat, especially if that Democrat is Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings.

If we got rid of that last clause, that's more or less where we are. The question is just "Is Colin Allred that 'right Democrat?'"

I think Allred 100% could win. He's definitely giving Sessions his hardest race since 2004. I suspect that at the end of the day, he comes up 3-5 points short. We'll see, though.

I actually think Rawlings would edge out Sessions by a point or so.