TX-SEN: True to Form

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Would be interesting if Cornyn gets appointed to lead the FBI and Texas holds two Senate elections in 2018. George P. Bush vs. Joaquin Castro could be the most exciting race of the cycle.

Bush would crush him by over 15 points, probably 20.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely R. Now thinking 54-41 for Cruz.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

Most importantly too even if all dems hold on AND nevada and arizona flip, there is Mike Pence. Still GOP control.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I would just give up. Don't believe any out of state commies. I was born and raised in Texas, and have lived here my entire life. And I am here to say that Texas will start to become competitive around ten years from now, and maybe would tilt D twenty years from now. But now is too early. Cruz will win most probably with a margin in the lower to mid 10s. This race is not competitive, look elsewhere for now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ORourke isn't gonna give up and in a neutral environment, the state won't be in play. But, its a Democratic year and he can have his chance.

Fair point.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Siren is basically right. O'Rourke isn't going to win...but winning isn't the point of this exercise this time. If he holds Cruz to a 6-8 point win, that's huge by itself and a sign that Texas statewide officials can no longer cruise comfortably to reelection but have to actually work for it. There's a big difference between a Texas where Romney wins by 17 and a Texas where Trump wins by 9.

Actually 8.99 that was the funniest part, I use it in my points to this day. When people say Trump dominated in Texas, I say he could not even win by 9 points XD.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hypothetically, how would Former Admiral and Chancellor of the UT system William McRaven do if he ran?

I'm very skeptical of whether McRaven actually has political ambitions, but a well-respected former military official with a fairly inspiring personal story would be great for a state like Texas.

Definitely a spectacular choice. I think he would even outperform Clinton, and hold Cruz to mid single digets. Probably 51-45 Cruz.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't think that Cruz will be ousted in 2018, but I think the 2024 senate race in texas could be tilt D under the perfect storm:

1. It is 2024, and Trump has won reelection in 2020.

2. An incredibly unpopular Cruz has been reelected with a pathetic 53-44 against O'Rourke in 2018, and is running again in 2024 after winning the nomination.

3. Due to #1, hopefully it would be a blue wave year the size of 2008.

4. The minority population in Texas has been given another 7 years to grow.

5. The Democratic nominee is Admiral William McRaven

6. The Democratic Ticket on top of the ballot for prez is very appealing.

7. That's all I can think of for now, but I think if those things happenedd, I think McRaven would win 49-47.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No doubt Cruz will win, and odds are by lower double digits. But, I would not be very surprised if this thing is mid to higher single digits. Because Cruz is well, Cruz, O'Rourke is a pretty good candidate, this will be a Trumpian midterm, and our demographics are rapidly changing. I would not rule out Cruz winning by 6-9 points, pretty unlikely, but not out of the picture.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So there's now talk of Cruz replacing Sessions as Attorney General.  If that should occur, what happens in the special election to replace Cruz?

Would they even hold a special election? Only a little over a year until 2018 midterms; I think the governor would appoint someone and the election would go on as normally scheduled.

Please be True, I'd hope to god Abbot would pick Hurd as a replacement.

Same dude, Hurd is by far the best it gets around realistic holders of this seat in the future. I think he would be a Senator I at least would not be embarrassed to be his constituent.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The only Texas Democrats that can win are Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich (yes, he can win) or Bill White, the son of former Texas Gov. Bill White.

Pops and McRaven are the only two that could even put this remotely in play in 2018.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The only Texas Democrats that can win are Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich (yes, he can win) or Bill White, the son of former Texas Gov. Bill White.

Pops and McRaven are the only two that could even put this remotely in play in 2018.

Oh I agree that O'Rourke isn't winning this thing. McRaven would indeed be an interesting contender. I was more just perplexed by Bronz's insistence that Bill White's son (?) is somehow a top prospect (There is of course no former Texas Governor Bill White, so I'm a little confused as to whether Bronz is talking about the former Houston mayor and 2010 gov. candidate or his son who I've never heard of).

I'm sorry. I thought that former Houston mayor and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Bill White is related to former Gov. Mark White.

I don't think that they are related, but Bill White should run for Senate in 2018.

Ron Kirk would be a good Texas Democratic candidate in 2018 as well.

Cecile Richards and Wendy Davis are too liberal for Texas, period. The abortion issue would be too much, they are too pro-choice for a conservative state like Texas, even with Hispanic conservatives.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/24/castro-julian-joaquin-texas-241946

I like Ron Kirk, and I would vote for him any day of the week, but from a strategic standpoint, a person like him can't win in Texas statewide, at least for now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The only Texas Democrats that can win are Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich (yes, he can win) or Bill White, the son of former Texas Gov. Bill White.

Pops and McRaven are the only two that could even put this remotely in play in 2018.

Oh I agree that O'Rourke isn't winning this thing. McRaven would indeed be an interesting contender. I was more just perplexed by Bronz's insistence that Bill White's son (?) is somehow a top prospect (There is of course no former Texas Governor Bill White, so I'm a little confused as to whether Bronz is talking about the former Houston mayor and 2010 gov. candidate or his son who I've never heard of).

I'm sorry. I thought that former Houston mayor and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Bill White is related to former Gov. Mark White.

I don't think that they are related, but Bill White should run for Senate in 2018.

Ron Kirk would be a good Texas Democratic candidate in 2018 as well.

Cecile Richards and Wendy Davis are too liberal for Texas, period. The abortion issue would be too much, they are too pro-choice for a conservative state like Texas, even with Hispanic conservatives.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/24/castro-julian-joaquin-texas-241946

I like Ron Kirk, and I would vote for him any day of the week, but from a strategic standpoint, a person like him can't win in Texas statewide, at least for now.

Kirk performed the best statewide out of any Democrat this century... I think he has the potential to perform really well.

John Sharp did better.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ted, do yourself and the people of Texas a favor and just admit that you were completely stoned when you did this (everyone knows it was you, staffing mistake my bleep) and just move on.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Rourke has the potential to pull off a 50-48 victory edge, but that's the best he could do.

With how controversial and far right Cruz is, eepecially after a profile raise just a little more than two years ago, there is very little chance that third parties only get 2 points. We are probably looking at around 4 points, maybe a bit more.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ok so ted is probably more popular than trump in texas but beto‘s more popular than hillary too...idk i don’t actually see enough republicans defecting to give beto the win. ik houston/dallas/austin/san antonio are steadily taking more of the state’s population share and trending democratic by the day but i still don’t think it’s enough to overpower the ultra-republican rural areas

Contrary to popular belief, the rural areas are not what make Texas super red. It is the sunbelt suburbs, and while the rural areas certainly do help, it is the suburbs that make Texas what it is.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

you know if republican turnout is somewhat lower and beto doesn’t get absolutely demolished in the rural areas while maintaining/outdoing hillary’s margins in the triangle, he has a pretty decent chance

He definitely needs to outdo Hillary's margins in the triangle. Rural TX is not swingy at all, so Beto will get demolished there. He may do marginally better than Hillary in rural TX, but not significantly.

yes i mean by appealing to rural areas he could do less horribly than usual and lose by like less than 40 points instead of the high 40s

I don't know man... rural TX is super inelastic. It's not like the rural midwest / plains states that are elastic. Most of the democratic votes from rural TX are Latinos, who have low turnout in midterms.

I don't think Beto even gets a 5 point swing from rural TX, honestly. Maybe in rural border counties, but not in the rural panhandle.

What? TX-13, the panhandle sistrcit, literally voted for Clinton in 92! There is dem strength possible here.

1992 was an eternity ago in electoral politics. There's a ton of places that voted Clinton in '92, even by majorities, that just aren't winnable for Democrats anymore. The Dem coalitions between then and now are incredibly different.

Yeah... for example, Phil Bredesen's winning 2018 coalition is going to be completely different from his winning 2002 coalition.

He won a ton of rural white counties in 2002... in 2018, if he wins, it's probably due to insane margins in Nashville + its surrounding suburbs, while not doing terribly in rural TN.

Hold your horses, he has not won yet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

you know if republican turnout is somewhat lower and beto doesn’t get absolutely demolished in the rural areas while maintaining/outdoing hillary’s margins in the triangle, he has a pretty decent chance

He definitely needs to outdo Hillary's margins in the triangle. Rural TX is not swingy at all, so Beto will get demolished there. He may do marginally better than Hillary in rural TX, but not significantly.

yes i mean by appealing to rural areas he could do less horribly than usual and lose by like less than 40 points instead of the high 40s

I don't know man... rural TX is super inelastic. It's not like the rural midwest / plains states that are elastic. Most of the democratic votes from rural TX are Latinos, who have low turnout in midterms.

I don't think Beto even gets a 5 point swing from rural TX, honestly. Maybe in rural border counties, but not in the rural panhandle.

What? TX-13, the panhandle sistrcit, literally voted for Clinton in 92! There is dem strength possible here.

1992 was an eternity ago in electoral politics. There's a ton of places that voted Clinton in '92, even by majorities, that just aren't winnable for Democrats anymore. The Dem coalitions between then and now are incredibly different.

Yeah, no federal dem is winning Hall county anytime in the near future.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Does anyone know if O’Rourke has launched any ads yet? He’s raise so much money but maybe he’s saving it till the end...

The average American doesn't start becoming a political nerd until Labor Day weekend.  I wager he's saving his ad bucks until then.

I have seen like maybe one tv ad (big maybe) and a couple radio ads, but that is about it. And I am in prime advertising territory, North Dallas Suburbs.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Does anyone know if O’Rourke has launched any ads yet? He’s raise so much money but maybe he’s saving it till the end...

The average American doesn't start becoming a political nerd until Labor Day weekend.  I wager he's saving his ad bucks until then.

I have seen like maybe one tv ad (big maybe) and a couple radio ads, but that is about it. And I am in prime advertising territory, North Dallas Suburbs.

For which candidates?

Beto, George Rodriguez (back in February), Ed Meier, and one for Kathleen Wall like back in february, (Ik weird especially since she was running in Houston lol).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I've only heard one ad since the primaries, and that was like a 30 second Beto radio ad on kiss fm.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

And maybe like one Abbott ad, but I am not sure on that one.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz campaign getting into some trouble...


Ted Cruz campaign runs into issues with FEC

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-campaign-runs-into-issues-with-FEC-13038381.php

L-Y-I-N' Ted

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I drive through a family friends neighborhood the other day and their precinct went for Trump by well over 20 points and I saw 5 yards with Beto signs and one with a Cruz sign. Now this place will still vote for the GOP, but it is quite interesting. It's not just this neighhborhood though, driving through suburban Collin county I saw a lot of local GOP signs, but three Beto signs and no Cruz signs, and around my area too, very similar. Allred signs are also quite frequent while a Sessions sign is rare. Of course the GOP is still favored, but dem enthusiasm is higher.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz sex tape imminent?

https://www.twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1025866042390863873

please please please, I would amputate my left toe pinkie if it was guaranteed that Cruz would lose.