MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bahahahaha. What a legitimately pathetic pollster. I have no doubt they pulled the numbers out of their ass at the last minute.

True dat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Between these Google polls, Gravis, and the CBO report coming out on the 24th, I have no idea what's going on up there.

Same dude, you are not alone.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Still thinking Quist wins by a plurality and 2+.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Quist has massive momentum, if only he can turn them into votes...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

As of 5/22:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 67.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.6)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 62.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.8 )

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 71.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 71.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 62.3% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 73.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 69.6% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 68.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

STATEWIDE: 67.2% of mail-ins returned

Added the change (5/21-5/22) in brackets.

Can I please ask what the "+" numbers towards the end in parenthesis are?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

As of 5/22:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 67.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.6)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 62.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.8 )

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 71.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 71.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 62.3% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 73.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 69.6% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 68.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

STATEWIDE: 67.2% of mail-ins returned

Added the change (5/21-5/22) in brackets.

Can I please ask what the "+" numbers towards the end in parenthesis are?

I believe that indicates from the previous day's % of ballots returned.

Thanks.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why the heck is this on a Thursday again?

The governor had to name a date that was 85-100 days from the vacancy.  He supposedly chose the earliest possible date, which ended up being the Thursday before Memorial Day Weekend.  He could have chosen the Tuesday after Memorial Day, but that could have caused logistical issues as well, with people on vacation.  The only other Tuesday in the period would have been June 6.

Either way, holding the election on the Thursday before Memorial Day weekend isn't ideal for turnout.

But they have had pretty ok/good ballot returns so far. I think we will see turnout in the middle to upper seventies.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

NEW POLL ALERT
From Change Research/Medium.com

Gianforte- 49%
Quist- 43%
Wicks- 7%

Among those most likely to vote (NO LEAN):
Gianforte- 43%
Quist- 40%

Among those most likely to vote (LEAN):
Gianforte- 48%
Quist- 44%

Among those already decided (ALL VOTERS):
Gianforte- 42%
Quist- 38%

GOOD POLL FOR QUIST! Someone said it's an R internal too.

If that's accurate, then crap we are screwed. Hopefully it's bad, but those are semi believable numbers, (well, besides Wicks, he is being waaaaay overpolled).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why do so many people on the left here think Quist will win? Outside of (very) dubious google polling, we have actual firms showing +15 (emerson), +14 (gravis), and +7 (change).

This isn't GA-6 where trump won by only 1.5, this is a statewide election where trump won by 20.

Is there any evidence that quist will win here? At all?

You had a good case there, and I was listening, but when you gave Gravis credibility, you lost me. It's entirely possible that Gianforte wins, but I'll be darned if his margin of victory is anywhere higher the mid to upper single digits. There is little debate that Quist will do substantially to significantly better than Clinton, because that's almost a given. The quistion (pun intended) is whether he can pull it off or not, and it's probably likely that he will not.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

With the details regarding Jacobs condition and Gianforte being arrested, I retract my previous statement and my endorsement of Gianforte. This is a despicable, sinful, and unignorable incident. I endorse Libertarian Candidate Mark Wicks for this election.

Hear hear!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

And we let idiots like this have guns...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

One of many reasons I despise the rampant gun and violence culture prevalent in our country, and especially among the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

One of many reasons I despise the rampant gun and violence culture prevalent in our country, and especially among the GOP.

The vast majority of gun violence in this country, and violence in general, happens in the bluest of the blue precincts.

STFU with this sh**t .

Looks like someone shouldn't be allowed to have guns either, triggered much .

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ban Guns!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IKR it will not happened and it aint realistic, but yeah...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No, I mean banning guns. That will never occur here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I've been with Quist since the beggining. It's time to try to see this through.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That's like the difference between Shaq and Overeem punching someone. Almost the same effect.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That's like the difference between Shaq and Overeem punching someone. Almost the same effect.

Between Audio and Video.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

A question. Doesn't the GOP electorate vote on Election Day, while the Dems turn out in the early vote? I know Trump was trailing in FL, and other battleground states before the ED vote. I don't know how Montana voting patterns so I'm curious.

i think it all comes down to the question, if some republicans are getting cold feet....don't think there are much more dems to motivate.

It'll be hard to move them to Quist, but if Wicks can pick them up, maybe we might have a Bill Clinton 1992 part two... that is if there are enough votes still out.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If the Republicans were nervous about this election before, they must be in a coma right now.

As a Republican, who would you vote for?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

A question. Doesn't the GOP electorate vote on Election Day, while the Dems turn out in the early vote? I know Trump was trailing in FL, and other battleground states before the ED vote. I don't know how Montana voting patterns so I'm curious.

i think it all comes down to the question, if some republicans are getting cold feet....don't think there are much more dems to motivate.

It'll be hard to move them to Quist, but if Wicks can pick them up, maybe we might have a Bill Clinton 1992 part two... that is if there are enough votes still out.

I guess Claire McCaskill got 55% of the vote because of her popularity right?

Quist and McCaskill are not a fair comparison. Quist is a Berniecrat. That's extra hard to attract conservatives. Splitting with Wicks is the path.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This was already basically a tossup before this incident. I think this will drive Quist over the edge.

Heck yeah!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

Only viable thing would be to leave and for the GOP to select someone new.