Here is an interesting explanation of this.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/08/new-model-has-hawley-over-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate-race/#more-258261New Model has Hawley Over McCaskill in Missouri Senate Race
Posted by Mary Chastain Friday, August 24, 2018 at 11:00am
A new election model from a conservative polling group has Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley ahead of incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill, 53 to 47 percent. From The Washington Free Beacon:
The model, created by WPA Intelligence and shared with the Washington Free Beacon, was based on predictive data available for each of Missouri’s 4,101,062 registered voters and found Hawley to have a six-point advantage over McCaskill, 53 to 47 percent. The model uses available consumer data, voter history, and demographic information to assign each voter with a predictive score.
Among likely voters, the model categorized a roughly equal number of voters as leaning toward either candidate, with 609,694 voters rated “lean Hawley” and 589,849 as “lean McCaskill.” The model found Hawley’s advantage to be in voters who are firmly behind him, with 398,087 voters categorized as “likely Hawley” voters and only 311,750 categorized as “likely McCaskill” voters.
https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/WPAi-MOSen.pdfhttps://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/WPAi-MOSen.pdfThe Washington Free Beacon continued:
“Our latest ballot model demonstrates a significant raw advantage for Hawley among individual voters, and Missouri voters are primed to retire Claire McCaskill in favor of a senator who will represent their interests and values, not those of Chuck Schumer and the national Democrat Party,” said Brian Rodgers, executive director of Missouri Rising Action, a conservative group that commissioned the analysis.
“New reports about [Claire McCaskill] and her husband profiting millions from federal subsidies, taking advantage of tax loopholes, and using Cayman Island tax havens, are putting her record in full view for Missouri voters—and they want a change.”
WPA Intelligence said consumer data was available for 2,899,939 of these voters, and that vote history and demographic information were used to score the 1,201,123 voters without consumer data.
WPA Intelligence ran a poll for the Club for Growth Missouri a week ago and came back with similar results. That poll showed that Hawley’s support went up by 5 points from July to August and leads McCaskill 48 to 42 percent. The July poll had Hawley up 43 to 42 percent on McCaskill. Hawley also came out on top on the questions if voters have heard of both (49 to 43 percent) and have opinions on both (50 to 44 percent).
Other polls have basically shown Hawley-McCaskill tied. The Cook Political Report still has the race as a Toss-Up.
A poll from Missouri Scout that took place on August 8 and 9 has the candidates tied at 47% with 6% left undecided.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Missouri_Scout_August_2018.pdfI’d also like to note that Hawley won the Missouri Bureau Straw Poll at the state fair on August 21. It’s unscientific, but as the bureau points out, McCaskill performed well in rural areas in the past:
With all this political buzz in Missouri simmering on the fairgrounds, Missouri Farm Bureau asked fairgoers to register their opinions in a straw poll. The 2,655 votes registered over the 11-day fair in mid-August picked Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley over Senator McCaskill, 72.8% to 27.2%.
This eye-popping 45.6-point margin showed stunningly strong support for Hawley. While many may attribute this margin to a more rural-leaning crowd at the fair, McCaskill has previously performed quite well in rural areas. In her last re-election in 2012, McCaskill actually won the areas outside Kansas City and St. Louis by about a 47% to 45% margin. Even her worst result out of Missouri’s 114 counties in 2012, Barton County, gave her 31% of the vote. No matter where 2018 straw poll voters came from, McCaskill’s performance may indicate a severe drop in support over the past six years that could be hard to overcome.
This sentiment did not come as a surprise to many farmers, however. Foreshadowing the straw poll’s lopsided margin, Missouri Farm Bureau members voted to endorse Hawley with a 93% vote at their August 10 endorsement session.
I look forward to some of you picking it apart.
Here is a link to the actual article that has additional points and charts.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/08/new-model-has-hawley-over-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate-race/#more-258261
