NV-Suffolk: Heller +1

[Arkansas Yankee]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

But Nevada has also been drifting D over the last few decades, largely due to the steady increase in the Hispanic electorate especially in Greater Las Vegas and Greater Reno. The image that you have of Nevada as "cowboy country" applies to cattle, sagebrush, and irrigated farming... and it is not where the voters are.

Look at the vote totals for Robert "B1 Bob" Dornan in his California district. He could win as a Reaganite Democrat in his district in southern California for years, and he was by all accounts a crafty and shrewd politician able to get the vote out.Eventually the demographics defeated him.

That is how Nevada is going. E

Actually from 2012 to 2016 Nevada shifted Reublican.  I believe Rubio would have carried it.

Heller is one great campaigner.  Rosen may be a flawed candidate.  I believe a number of Nevada residents like having a Democrat and a Republican Senator.   Some small state residents are  like that.  I realize this aids Democrats in North Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

[Arkansas Yankee]

This helps Sinema, Nelson, Bredesen too. Take the Dems to majority without NV.

Florida is a big state.  This factor is really not a factor there.

Arizona and Tennessee are not small.  They are not large either.  So it may be a factor, but smaller.  

I would not bet the bank on Tennessee or Florida, if l were you.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I also wonder is Nevada ready for 2 female Senators.