There've been other threads discussing this
Re: NY: Biden 47%, Trump 34% (Sienna)I can see NY shifting hard against the Dems. I am not sure what is going on but Republicans did well in 2022, and the upstate and Long Island areas are voting for Republican than they did pre-Trump.
But we are in a period of Urban Decay where cities in the West suffer, and the State of New York has very few suburbs to counterbalance the urban decay of New York City.
So White Liberals who flee to the suburbs of New Jersey and Connecticut drag those states Democrat, and those who stay get a fright everytime they go out for a walk and become like Trump over time.
So in the long run New York ought to be the most Republican in the tristate area.
Yes, NY is a bit unique in that it has the entire downtown, but most of the ritzy suburbs get chopped off into other states and it takes on a mathematically meaningful amount of Rust Belt/Appalachian territory instead. Theoretically, it loses the most left-trending population and combines the 2 most right-trending populations. Sort of like a reverse MD or, to a lesser extent, VA (rural areas and the largest downtown get chopped off to make the state really suburban dominated)
As a NYCer who also spends time in NJ, I feel qualified to answer...
On the federal/Pres level, I think Rs do have potential to make further gains in the greater NYC area. In particular, ethnic enclaves in places like South Brooklyn and the Outer Reaches of Queens are particularly susceptible to the GOP's culture war messaging as many hold very traditional/conversative social values and don't like when they feel their culture is under any sort of attack. I also think the GOP generally has potential to continue Trump's 2020 gains with Black and Hispanic men of colour and a lot of that is just activating currently non-voters.
Long Island will be interesting to watch. Biden got really solid swings on Long Island in 2020, but in 2022 these same suburbs snapped hard right. I would be curious to have a precinct level map because some of it might be attributed to non-white voters (which is Dems primary base on Long Island) just having really low turnout. Long Island doesn't really have any D-leaning white suburbs other than arguably the Hamptons, so turnout dynamics between white and non-white votes matters a ton here.
Upstate NY I suspect will just do whatever simillar parts of New England do and I suspect there's a good chance it swings left again due to the scattering of cities and college towns upstate.
Tbh I think New York will trend Republican. I mean the counties directly north of NYC (probably excluding Rockland) likely will trend Democratic due to liberal city transplants but I think the city itself will trend decently Republican. Manhattan stays fairly static, Brooklyn moves a bit right due to trends in South Brooklyn, Staten Island goes safe R, Bronx is still safe Dem but not as monolithically so and Queens moves fairly heavily right due to pro-R swings in non-'ideologically liberal' Asian/Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Black) areas.
The next political era dividing line probably won't be so much urban vs. rural but more genteel vs. 'rough and ready'.
