Most populous county to vote Republican

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No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

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No R nominee will win any of the listed SoCal counties or Clark NV unless they’re already winning the NPV. I’m also skeptical of either Don Giovanni or Ronny D outright winning Miami-Dade but would be less surprised if it happens with a D victory.

But thats the thing, a non Trump republican has a good chance of winning the NPV whether they are winning the EC or not

Republicans have fallen behind in a lot of large metropolitan areas and I think that problem will persist whether Trump is the nominee or not.

This. SoCal outside of LA County won't vote more R than the country as a whole. Neither will Clark County even though NV probably will.

Donald Trump lost Asians badly in Nevada but Lombardo only lost them by 8. And it's not like Lombardo won by double digits or anything. Same thing in Texas. Again, Abbott only lost Asians by 4, while Trump lost them by over 20 points. Yet Abbott only won by 10, with a swing like that you'd expect him to win by at least 20 statewide.

Asians not being a monolith and Don Giovanni underperforming Generic R with battleground state Asians aside... this pattern isn't that unusual for a D midterm and can be mostly explained by turnout differentials. Pandemic-era inflation will do the rest.

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The assertion of "massive gains with suburbanites" is also false in California: of the 24 counties in the state where the swing against Newsom from 2018 to 2022 was larger than the statewide swing, only San Bernardino could accurately be described as primarily suburban. The three counties where Newsom did better in 2022 then in 2018 were Inyo, Marin, and Contra Costa, two of which are unambiguously suburban. On the whole, Democrats in California were most successful in 2022 relative to the past in suburbs. If you're going to talk about the vote in California, please make sure that what you say has any basis in reality.

Interlocutor is correct when he says that any Republican swing in California was caused purely by low turnout because there were no meaningful statewide votes on the ballot. California bears no relationship to New York or Florida.

Asians literally swung further right from Presidential to GCB than any other minority group. So no, that's not a "lie"

Read the fine print. There's less conclusive evidence of a surge in R turnout among CA Asian enclaves than there is in Metro NYC. Not that raw turnout numbers necessarily indicate that was the case outside of maybe some of the NYC Chinatowns (I don't know the numbers for NYC precincts firsthand).

I stand by my previous posts on where the diverse (sub)urban Southwestern US counties stand relative to the NPV.