Recent history in exit polls for married women:
2012: R+7 (NPV D+3.9)
2014: R+10 (NPV R+5.7)
2016: D+2 (NPV D+2.1)
2018: D+10 (NPV D+8.6)
2020: R+4 (NPV D+4.5)
2022: R+14 (NPV R+2.9)
This really looks like a one-time swing to Hillary Clinton as the 1st female nominee and then a quick reversion to their historical R-leaning voting patterns. Note that they stuck around for Dems one more time in 2018, so MeToo backlash doesn't fit as an explanation for why they are back to voting R now. If it does come down to a specific issue, a COVID restrictions/"woke" school curriculum backlash seems more plausible with this timing.
Yeah QAnon and lockdowns (combined with 45's stimulus) explain a good chunk of the 2018-2020 swing. Wouldn't have expected school curriculum backlash to be a significant factor unless I'm underestimating how much more married >40 women care about this stuff (even if they don't have K-12 age children!) than their unmarried >40 counterparts.
