The UK with Dems/GOP (user search)
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Kamala's side hoe
khuzifenq
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« on: January 20, 2022, 08:51:53 PM »

An area that really does need highlighting, though, would be East Asian ethnicities. In Britain these are low turnout groups but those who do vote are overwhelmingly (probably in the 90% territory in a good election) Conservative.

Wikipedia suggests this group is at least 70% ethnic Chinese (possibly even 80% judging from how much of the SE Asia-origin population is from Malaysia or Singapore). Unlike in the rest of the Anglosphere, a supermajority of British Asians are of subcontinental heritage.

I could be wrong on this, but I don't think the post-mid 20th century US GOP or Canadian Tories have ever won more than 80% of any major East or Southeast Asian group. Great thread by the way!
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Kamala's side hoe
khuzifenq
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2022, 02:08:57 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2022, 10:13:22 PM by khuzifenq »

A few necessary caveats:
-California means that one really needs a mental model for Asian-American voting patterns, especially for ethnic groups which are less common in the UK. Since it sounds like Chinese-British people are fairly Tory, I modeled them accordingly. For Japanese and Korean-Americans, I also had them going to conservatives, since IIRC those groups tend to be higher income. Other East Asian immigrant groups often skew a bit more working class, so I have them going to Labour. Apologies if this is grimly ignorant.
-I don't have a great sense of the distribution of a lot of Asian-American ethnic groups in west coast cities, especially in the Bay Area. I may be consequently overestimating the conservatives.

I'm guessing East/Southeast Asians would be an quasi-Israel-type situation where the major groups whose median household income are below the AAPI median (Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese) would lean Conservative, while the groups with above AAPI median household incomes (Japanese, Filipino) would lean Labour- albeit this has less to do with income and more to do with occupational clustering, spatial distribution, and cultural factors.

Chinese Americans would definitely favor the Tories, but it would be significantly closer than in the UK as I imagine higher turnout and greater inequality would benefit Labour. I can see Labour overperforming with us if not outright winning a plurality/majority in a CAN 2021 type situation. By contrast, Filipinos would be relatively pro-Labour, as I suspect would Japanese and smaller/poorer groups like the Hmong.

Ethnic Chinese from Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia (e.g. Ronny Chieng, Rich Brian) would be strongly Tory or at least non-Labour. And I would expect the Vietnamese, Filipinos, and Cambodians who have and identify with colonial-era Chinese roots to be somewhat more right-wing than non-ethnic Chinese Vietnamese, Cambodians, and Filipino Americans.

South Asians as a whole would obviously be Safe Labour, although I'm guessing Indians would be more receptive to US LibDems than non-Muslim UK South Asians. Not as sure about US Tories as the UK Tories seem to have a certain floor with Indians.

Other notes:
-The West Coast seems like the sort of place where Lib Dems would be especially strong. I gave them several seats in the Bay and Pramila Jayapal's district (lol) (which would normally go Labour). There are a lot of "very bougie but extremely socially liberal/culturally Democratic" places on the west coast--Boulder, much of the richer parts of the bay, Hollywood--and it's hard to see a better party for those places.
-The Bay Area has several seats--thinking especially of CA-05 and CA-11--which are very socioeconomically heterogeneous. Since this was a Conservative year, I had Napa outvote Vallejo and the Tri-Valley outvote Richmond, but obviously most years it would be different.
-Los Angeles is notably more Left-leaning than San Francisco
-In better years, Alaska, AZ-01, AZ-02, NM-02, CA-12, CA-25, CA-36 and Montana would be winnable for Labour, in addition to the ones already mentioned.

I'd flip the SFO and San Jose proper seats to Labour, but other than that I agree with your map. WA-7 going LibDem seems more probable than WA-9, although I would've made it a Green seat.
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