Reflecting on Areas Where Trump Did Better.

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This thread should be moved to a different subforum. I’m guessing the 2024 nominee will maintain 45’s percentage margin gains, but have no idea if they will expand on them.

As for polls, honestly, we are too far out for ethnicity-specific polls to mean anything. If all three groups trend GOP in 2020, then perhaps we're seeing a trend. But as of right now, I'm very skeptical.

The question is: how much of this was due to COVID (the service and tourism sectors are disproportionately black, Latino, Asian, and mixed-race, and IIRC disposable income among non-white and lower-income Americans actually increased during 2020 thanks to stimulus checks + the CARES Act), and how much of this was a reaction to the complex and diverse ways left-of-center white folks process and respond to their group privillege, both within the D coalition and in broader society?

On the other hand, white liberals often feel motivated to act in racially egalitarian ways to distance themselves from these same negative stereotypes of whiteness. The thinking may go something along the lines of, “Those white people are ‘bad,’ but I want to see myself as a good person.” However, committing to antiracist action is not a straightforward solution, as it is not always effective at staving off the negative emotions that come with acknowledging a legacy of racism. Moreover, this strategy can fall short in actually addressing racial inequality, as it does not alway prioritize the practical needs of people of color over the emotional and psychological needs of white antiracists.

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The election map suggests a different thesis, namely that the Trump coalition is even more downmarket, for lack of a better term, than most of us thought and certainly more so that many of the people running the GOP would like.

In other words, it's less a matter of silent Trump support coming from people who are terrified of speaking, than of loud Trump support coming from people to whom no one who “matters” is listening.

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The election map suggests a different thesis, namely that the Trump coalition is even more downmarket, for lack of a better term, than most of us thought and certainly more so that many of the people running the GOP would like.

In other words, it's less a matter of silent Trump support coming from people who are terrified of speaking, than of loud Trump support coming from people to whom no one who “matters” is listening.

It’s a bit disconcerting to think of Tejanos and FL Cubans, Vietnamese and Filipinos in the Golden State, or Michael Jordan’s people as potential “Biden-R” voters. Really goes against the narrative that Biden-R voters are all bougie, college-educated white suburbanites.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html

A review of the 2020 election, conducted by several prominent Democratic advocacy groups, has concluded that the party is at risk of losing ground with Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters unless it does a better job presenting an economic agenda and countering Republican efforts to spread misinformation and tie all Democratic candidates to the far left.

The 73-page report, obtained by The New York Times, was assembled at the behest of three major Democratic interest groups: Third Way, a centrist think tank, and the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, which promote Black and Hispanic candidates. It appears to be the most thorough act of self-criticism carried out by Democrats or Republicans after the last campaign.

The document is all the more striking because it is addressed to a victorious party: Despite their successes, Democrats had hoped to achieve more robust control of both chambers of Congress, rather than the ultra-precarious margins they enjoy.

Three prominent Democratic groups, Third Way, the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, conducted a review of the 2020 election.

READ DOCUMENT 73 PAGES

In part, the study found, Democrats fell short of their aspirations because many House and Senate candidates failed to match Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s support with voters of color who loathed Mr. Trump but distrusted the Democratic Party as a whole. Those constituencies included Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas, Vietnamese American and Filipino American voters in California, and Black voters in North Carolina.

Overall, the report warns, Democrats in 2020 lacked a core argument about the economy and recovering from the coronavirus pandemic — one that might have helped candidates repel Republican claims that they wanted to “keep the economy shut down,” or worse. The party “leaned too heavily on ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric,” the report concludes.