Reflecting on Areas Where Trump Did Better.

[perpetual_cynic]

Trump did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2024 nominee expand upon these gains?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

[Woody]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

Oh yes... let's forget that in 2004 the country shifted right, while in 2020 minorities moved rightwards while the environment shifted left, and let's also forget that Obama was the first non-white nominee of a major party/a giant ass recession was currently going on with everyone taking a swing at Bush.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

This thread should be moved to a different subforum. I’m guessing the 2024 nominee will maintain 45’s percentage margin gains, but have no idea if they will expand on them.

As for polls, honestly, we are too far out for ethnicity-specific polls to mean anything. If all three groups trend GOP in 2020, then perhaps we're seeing a trend. But as of right now, I'm very skeptical.

The question is: how much of this was due to COVID (the service and tourism sectors are disproportionately black, Latino, Asian, and mixed-race, and IIRC disposable income among non-white and lower-income Americans actually increased during 2020 thanks to stimulus checks + the CARES Act), and how much of this was a reaction to the complex and diverse ways left-of-center white folks process and respond to their group privillege, both within the D coalition and in broader society?

On the other hand, white liberals often feel motivated to act in racially egalitarian ways to distance themselves from these same negative stereotypes of whiteness. The thinking may go something along the lines of, “Those white people are ‘bad,’ but I want to see myself as a good person.” However, committing to antiracist action is not a straightforward solution, as it is not always effective at staving off the negative emotions that come with acknowledging a legacy of racism. Moreover, this strategy can fall short in actually addressing racial inequality, as it does not alway prioritize the practical needs of people of color over the emotional and psychological needs of white antiracists.

[Non Swing Voter]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

Oh yes... let's forget that in 2004 the country shifted right, while in 2020 minorities moved rightwards while the environment shifted left, and let's also forget that Obama was the first non-white nominee of a major party/a giant ass recession was currently going on with everyone taking a swing at Bush.

get serious.  minorities barely shifted rightward.  If your plan to stay competitive is to win 2% more of hispanics each cycle as the demographics get worse and worse for the GOP then good luck with that.

Also, doesn't saying the "environment shifted left" go against the GOP narrative that the election was stolen?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The election map suggests a different thesis, namely that the Trump coalition is even more downmarket, for lack of a better term, than most of us thought and certainly more so that many of the people running the GOP would like.

In other words, it's less a matter of silent Trump support coming from people who are terrified of speaking, than of loud Trump support coming from people to whom no one who “matters” is listening.

[Chips]

It's possible and this could be a great opportunity for the GOP, but who knows for sure?

[Calthrina950]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

This would suggest that 2024 will be a decisive Democratic win, and that's possible, but not very likely.

[Non Swing Voter]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

This would suggest that 2024 will be a decisive Democratic win, and that's possible, but not very likely.

How does it suggest that?  His point seems to be that one election does not equal a trend and things can snap back. 

[Calthrina950]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

This would suggest that 2024 will be a decisive Democratic win, and that's possible, but not very likely.

How does it suggest that?  His point seems to be that one election does not equal a trend and things can snap back. 

I'm certainly aware of this, but there seems to be some on here who think that the Republicans are still destined to be a permanent minority in the long run.

[TodayJunior]

Any improvements the GOP is making in places like south Texas with sparse populations are droplets in the bucket compared with the gushing fire hydrant of suburban voters they're losing. They're not winning anything anytime soon - bank on it; they're just outnumbered and therefore screwed.

I’m very confident that their current actions will cost them an entire decade or two. I’ll even be as bold to say not only will they not gain either the House or Senate next year, but they’ll be dealt a NET LOSS of seats in both chambers in a Biden midterm. For the GOP, the 2020s is going to be an EXTREMELY DRY WELL, and they only have themselves to blame *shrugs shoulders*

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The election map suggests a different thesis, namely that the Trump coalition is even more downmarket, for lack of a better term, than most of us thought and certainly more so that many of the people running the GOP would like.

In other words, it's less a matter of silent Trump support coming from people who are terrified of speaking, than of loud Trump support coming from people to whom no one who “matters” is listening.

It’s a bit disconcerting to think of Tejanos and FL Cubans, Vietnamese and Filipinos in the Golden State, or Michael Jordan’s people as potential “Biden-R” voters. Really goes against the narrative that Biden-R voters are all bougie, college-educated white suburbanites.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html

A review of the 2020 election, conducted by several prominent Democratic advocacy groups, has concluded that the party is at risk of losing ground with Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters unless it does a better job presenting an economic agenda and countering Republican efforts to spread misinformation and tie all Democratic candidates to the far left.

The 73-page report, obtained by The New York Times, was assembled at the behest of three major Democratic interest groups: Third Way, a centrist think tank, and the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, which promote Black and Hispanic candidates. It appears to be the most thorough act of self-criticism carried out by Democrats or Republicans after the last campaign.

The document is all the more striking because it is addressed to a victorious party: Despite their successes, Democrats had hoped to achieve more robust control of both chambers of Congress, rather than the ultra-precarious margins they enjoy.

Three prominent Democratic groups, Third Way, the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, conducted a review of the 2020 election.

READ DOCUMENT 73 PAGES

In part, the study found, Democrats fell short of their aspirations because many House and Senate candidates failed to match Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s support with voters of color who loathed Mr. Trump but distrusted the Democratic Party as a whole. Those constituencies included Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas, Vietnamese American and Filipino American voters in California, and Black voters in North Carolina.

Overall, the report warns, Democrats in 2020 lacked a core argument about the economy and recovering from the coronavirus pandemic — one that might have helped candidates repel Republican claims that they wanted to “keep the economy shut down,” or worse. The party “leaned too heavily on ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric,” the report concludes.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

This would suggest that 2024 will be a decisive Democratic win, and that's possible, but not very likely.

How does it suggest that?  His point seems to be that one election does not equal a trend and things can snap back.  

I'm certainly aware of this, but there seems to be some on here who think that the Republicans are still destined to be a permanent minority in the long run.

And there seems to be some on here who think that the Republicans are still destined to get massive minority swings for the foreseeable future because of one election.

[Schiff for Senate]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

Oh yes... let's forget that in 2004 the country shifted right, while in 2020 minorities moved rightwards while the environment shifted left, and let's also forget that Obama was the first non-white nominee of a major party/a giant ass recession was currently going on with everyone taking a swing at Bush.

get serious.  minorities barely shifted rightward.  If your plan to stay competitive is to win 2% more of hispanics each cycle as the demographics get worse and worse for the GOP then good luck with that.

Also, doesn't saying the "environment shifted left" go against the GOP narrative that the election was stolen?

I agree with this... but I do think the Hispanic shift to the right in South TX and Southeast FL could cost the Democrats states in future elections. Given the 2020 election results, I don't think FL or TX are 'must-wins' for Democrats, but they are 'must-wins' for the GOP. I'm not saying TX would have flipped blue had South TX stayed solidly blue (as it did in 2016), but I do think that would've reduced the margin to below 5%. Similarly, in FL, had Southeast Florida stayed as blue as it was in 2016, the GOP margin would have certainly been below 2% and possibly below 1%. In future elections, especially if urban/suburban TX continues its leftward shift, South TX may be a deciding factor for the GOP to win. If Democrats can capture back the Hispanic vote, in some years Florida and Texas will both be competitive (especially FL), and if Democrats can win (either of) those states, the GOP's path to 270 becomes completely unworkable.

[Calthrina950]

Bush did better in many majority-minority areas, not just limited to Hispanics but also Asians and African-Americans, why? Going forward will the 2008 nominee expand upon these gains?

Fixed for 2005

This would suggest that 2024 will be a decisive Democratic win, and that's possible, but not very likely.

How does it suggest that?  His point seems to be that one election does not equal a trend and things can snap back.  

I'm certainly aware of this, but there seems to be some on here who think that the Republicans are still destined to be a permanent minority in the long run.

And there seems to be some on here who think that the Republicans are still destined to get massive minority swings for the foreseeable future because of one election.

You're right. I don't believe in either extreme. I actually noted the other day that I still don't understand why Trump made the gains among black voters that he did last year.