Orange County by City/Town

[Kamala's side hoe]

Not to put too fine a point on the last couple posts, but HRC barely won Fountain Valley in 2016 after Romney won it by 14%. It’s no surprise that place flipped back.

I saw a tweet saying Biden was winning Garden Grove by 2% posted on here, but have no idea if that still holds.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Sorted by swing:
Villa Park: D+9.7
Yorba Linda: D+6.8
Seal Beach: D+5.1
San Clemente: D+4.7 
Dana Point: D+4.5
Newport Beach: D+4.5
Rancho Santa Margarita: D+4.0
Los Alamitos: D+3.7
Laguna Hills: D+3.3
Orange: D+3.1 
Huntington Beach: D+3.1
Lake Forest: D+3.0
Placentia: D+2.9
Laguna Niguel: D+2.8
Mission Viejo: D+2.8
Brea: D+1.7
Cypress: D+0.7
Laguna Woods: D+0.6
San Juan Capistrano: D+0.6
La Habra: D+0.4
La Palma: D+0.3
Fullerton: R+0.1 
Aliso Viejo: R+0.3
Westminster: R+0.7
Irvine: R+1.0
Stanton: R+1.7
Costa Mesa: R+1.8
Laguna Beach: R+2.3
Garden Grove: R+3.6
Fountain Valley: R+4.3
Buena Park: R+4.9
Tustin: R+5.4
Anaheim: R+5.6
Santa Ana: R+13.9

If you know the area well, you can see some pretty heavy #TRENDZ on display here. If Irvine ever votes left of Santa Ana, the realignment is complete.

What year are these swings relative to? The R swings in Garden Grove, Westminster, and Fountain Valley are way too small to be from 2016. They can't be from 2012 either because Biden won a higher percentage of the vote in Fountain Valley than Obama did.

[Kamala's side hoe]

OFFICIAL 2020 San Bernardino County, CA Presidential Election Results

Rialto: Biden 70.16% — Trump 27.63% = D+ 42.53
Montclair: Biden 66.85% — Trump 30.45% = D+ 36.39
Colton: Biden 66.80% — Trump 30.83% = D+ 35.97
Adelanto: Biden 66.39% — Trump 31.11% = D+ 35.28
San Bernardino: Biden 65.60% — Trump 31.87% = D+ 33.73
Fontana: Biden 65.23% — Trump 32.62% = D+ 32.61
Ontario: Biden 63.59% — Trump 34.22% = D+ 29.36
Victorville: Biden 57.68% — Trump 39.85% = D+ 17.83
Loma Linda: Biden 57.28% — Trump 39.86% = D+ 17.43
Highland: Biden 54.51% — Trump 43.26% = D+ 11.24
Redlands: Biden 54.09% — Trump 43.25% = D+ 10.84
Upland: Biden 53.94% — Trump 43.91% = D+ 10.03
Chino: Biden 54.03% — Trump 44.11% = D+ 9.91
Grand Terrace: Biden 52.12% — Trump 45.41% = D+ 6.72
Chino Hills: Biden 52.39% — Trump 45.95% = D+ 6.44
Rancho Cucamonga: Biden 51.84% — Trump 46.14% = D+ 5.70
Barstow: Trump 49.14% — Biden 48.19% = R+ 0.95
Twentynine Palms: Trump 49.71% — Biden 44.71% =  R+ 5.00
Unincorprated Area: Trump 53.97% — Biden 43.68% =  R+ 10.29
Hesparia: Trump 54.76% — Biden 43.20% =  R+ 11.56
Yucca Valley: Trump 57.98% — Biden 39.29% =  R+ 18.69
Big Bear Lake: Trump 59.45% — Biden 38.54% =  R+ 20.91
Needles: Trump 59.77% — Biden 38.06% =  R+ 21.70
Apple Valley: Trump 60.90% — Biden 36.97% =  R+ 23.93
Yucapia: Trump 63.10% — Biden 34.79% =  R+ 28.31

NO 2016-2020 FLIPS

SWINGS (2016-2020)
Twentynine Palms: D+ 13.16%
Yucca Valley: D+ 11.34%
Big Bear Lake: D+ 7.83%
Redlands: D+ 6.04%
Apple Valley: D+ 5.66%
Grand Terrace: D+ 4.72%
Upland: D+ 4.21%
Unincorporated Area: D+ 2.94%
Hesparia: D+ 2.26%
Loma Linda: D+ 2.16%
Chino Hills: D+ 2.01%
Yucaipa: D+ 1.97%
Rancho Cucamonga: D+ 1.70%
Barstow: D+ 1.61%
Needles: D+ 0.83%
Victorville: D+ 0.13%
Highland: R+ 0.22%
Chino: R+ 1.57%
San Bernardino: R+ 4.88%
Adelanto: R+ 5.62%
Ontario: R+ 5.81%
Colton: R+ 8.32%
Montclair: R+ 8.39%
Rialto: R+ 9.35%
Fontana: R+ 10.13%

Oof, just look at the R swing in the more heavily Latino cities.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I know this thread is supposed to be just for Orange County, but since Interlocutor posted Riverside and San Bernardino, let's move to Northern California and take a look at one of my favorite counties in California!

OFFICIAL 2020 San Mateo County, CA Presidential Election Results
East Palo Alto: Biden 86.59% — Trump 11.34% = D+ 75.25
Menlo Park: Biden 84.60% — Trump 13.40% = D+ 71.20
Portola Valley: Biden 80.34% — Trump 17.16% = D+ 63.18
Redwood City: Biden 80.48% — Trump 17.41% = D+ 63.07
Brisbane: Biden 79.74% — Trump 18.00% = D+ 61.74
San Carlos: Biden 79.64% — Trump 18.45% = D+ 61.19
Colma: Biden 79.42% — Trump 19.05% = D+ 60.37
Belmont: Biden 78.79% — Trump 19.08% = D+ 59.71
San Mateo: Biden 77.92% — Trump 20.18% = D+ 57.74
Burlingame: Biden 77.87% — Trump 20.33% = D+ 57.54
Daly City: Biden 77.20% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.84
South San Francisco: Biden 77.05% — Trump 21.40% = D+ 55.65
Pacifica: Biden 76.49% — Trump 21.36% = D+ 55.13
Foster City: Biden 76.27% — Trump 21.92% = D+ 54.35
Half Moon Bay: Biden 75.81% — Trump 21.89% = D+ 53.92
San Bruno: Biden 74.58% — Trump 23.55% = D+ 51.03
Woodside: Biden 73.01% — Trump 24.67% = D+ 48.34
Atherton: Biden 71.79% — Trump 25.80% = D+ 45.99
Millbrae: Biden 70.57% — Trump 27.31% = D+ 43.26
Hillsborough: Biden 68.31% — Trump 29.34% = D+ 38.97

FLIPS (2016-2020)
None

SWINGS (2016-2020)*
Hillsborough: D+ 06.90
Atherton: D+ 05.68
Woodside: D+ 05.00
San Carlos: D+ 04.78
Belmont: D+ 04.39
Portola Valley: D+ 04.26
Redwood City: D+ 03.83
Half Moon Bay: D+ 03.48
Foster City: D+ 03.27
Menlo Park: D+ 02.29
Burlingame: D+ 02.18
San Mateo: D+ 01.07
Pacifica: D+ 00.19
Brisbane: D+ 00.13
Millbrae: R+ 01.29
San Bruno: R+ 01.51
South San Francisco: R+ 04.29
East Palo Alto: R+ 06.38
Daly City: R+ 07.99
Colma: R+ 09.86
_{*Includes write-ins by municipalities for both 2016 and 2020}

The R swings in the more Latino and more Asian cities (GOP stronghold Hillsborough notwithstanding) look ominous until you realize they were still mostly over 75% Biden. Colma (smaller suburb just outside SF, necropolis, 70% Latino + Asian) had the largest R swing for some reason.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Not sure if this might explain some of the swings among Municipalities with a higher % of Latinos and Asian-Americans in the Silicon Valley Area (Which has actually not only stretched completely up the Peninsula, but even when I was living in South Bay in the early 2010s we had people commuting from "The City" (SF for those of you not familiar with the Regional terminology) to work in the Tech Sector, we had the tech sector even creeping up the East Shores of the Bay as well:

The COVID-19 shutdowns and what has now effectively for many employers become "permanent remote working for Tech Workers", has effectively created "permanent unemployment" for many workers at Corporate Facilities, including Food Service Workers in Campus Cafeterias, Custodial Workers, and similar employees in "service sector occupations", which previously could have easily skipped to another job across the street as skilled workers in their areas of expertise.

The workers in those Tech Facilities support functions are effectively now completely unemployed, as the tech sector which initially was covering the cost to their contract service providers during the 1st wave of COVID-19 shutdown, is now no longer covering the paychecks of the contract service workers.

These workers tend to skew more heavily Latino, African-American, and Asian-American within the South Bay.

East Palo Alto swings are likely explained by COVID-19 shutdowns, as are potentially whatever precinct level results we might find from looking at precinct level results in working-class Latino Communities in San Jose.

This checks out with my personal experience working on similar campus sites. Lots of foreign-born and nonwhite service sector employees, although not all of them are eligible voters.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Here are some more results from plurality/majority Asian cities in the Bay Area that I’ve been able to find. (Write-ins included in all the percentages!) Looks like all of them swung to Trump with the exception of Foster City. Milpitas had the biggest swing at R+ 14.35! What happened there?!

Milpitas (61.85%) Santa Clara County
2016: Clinton 72.99% — Trump 21.16% = D+ 51.83
2020: Biden 67.93% — Trump 30.45% = D+ 37.48
SWING: R+ 14.35

Probably some combination of fallout from the COVID-19 lockdowns, very good fake news proliferation, and low levels of social trust due to an unusually ethnically diverse population. Milpitas is 67% Asian according to Statistical Atlas, and it has almost the same number of Filipinos, Vietnamese, Chinese, and Indians (source: https://statisticalatlas.com/place/California/Milpitas/Ancestry)

It’s demographically more similar to my NationStates main than any other city in the US, if not the world (maybe there’s a better match in Australia?)