Cities vs. rest of county

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

This is probably the norm. Multnomah County suburbs are basically just Gresham--which is pretty WWC and far from Downtown. By contrast, Beaverton/Tigard/Bethany are super educated and actually much closer to the urban core.

Easternmost Portland smoothly transitions into Gresham around 9 miles east of downtown. By contrast, the Washington County suburbs are separated from the downtown core by a low mountain range.

45 didn’t actually lose any support from 2016, although it doesn’t seem like he made super obvious gains with PDX area nonwhites either. The jump from 80s-10s Biden to 70s-20s Biden east of 82nd Ave is similar to what we saw in the Dem primaries.  I think the 53-45 Biden precinct is a relatively White precinct in easternmost Portland?

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Exhibit #2 for the case against a uniform R swing among urban nonwhites. (Seattle proper is 68% Non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, and 7% Black per 2019 estimates.) That Trump number is not very indicative of a R swing among Seattle’s Asian or Black residents.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

To update still awaiting for following and will update as I find them.

Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento County
Los Angeles vs. rest of Los Angeles County
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa County
Albuquerque vs. rest of Bernalillo County
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
El Paso vs. rest of El Paso County
Austin vs. rest of Travis County
Dallas vs. rest of Dallas County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County (I got breakdown of townships but not by municipality)
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby county
Rochester vs. rest of Monroe County
Charlotte vs. rest of Mecklenburg County
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval county
Orlando vs. rest of Orange county
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough county
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County

Yeah I'm very curious where in LA County the R swing came from. The LA Times precinct map of coastal SoCal isn't super revealing.
 
https://losangeleno.com/features/trump-vs-biden-los-angeles-precincts/

Who Lives in L.A.’s Red Pockets? Rich People and Scientologists

There are two precincts near Beverly Hills that leaned in favor of President Donald Trump. precinct 0900004A reported 1,007 votes for Trump and 865 for former Vice President Joe Biden while neighboring precinct 0900010A cast 935 votes for Trump and 660 for Biden. This part of town also favored Trump in 2016.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/04/us/elections/florida-election-results-by-county.html
NYT Miami-Dade precinct graphic from Nov 4

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Exhibit #2 for the case against a uniform R swing among urban nonwhites. (Seattle proper is 68% Non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, and 7% Black per 2019 estimates.) That Trump number is not very indicative of a R swing among Seattle’s Asian or Black residents.

I think you need to look at the suburbs like Tukwila, Sea-Tac, Kent, Federal Way, Renton, and South Seattle precincts before making this claim. Seattle is less White than most of South King County.

I was citing the Wikipedia article for the city of Seattle, which also says Trump won 8.44% of the vote in 2016. My general understanding is that the South King County suburbs are more Latino and black than King County as a whole, while also having a decent number of Asians. Renton, Kent, and Federal Way are all ~50% Non-Hispanic white. Auburn is 70%. Tukwila is under 40%. It’s definitely possible South King County nonwhites swung R, but it doesn’t seem like that happened in Seattle itself.

FWIW most of the people I know from college who grew up in South King County are working-to-lower-middle class Asians, with a few white, black, and Latino people.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I still think the national Asian vote swung R, if only because the median Asian voter is over 40 and foreign-born, and because we've seen how much urban Asian enclaves swung. I don't think the overall swing was as big as NBC/Edison shows, and I don't think whatever swing occured among Indians is clearly detectable from precinct data.

My assessment of the Vietnamese vote was influenced by the Seattle and Portland-area Millennials and Zoomers I personally know, who are also more concentrated in the tech and healthcare industries.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

These numbers come out to 71.8-26.4, which is ~1% more D than the final result. Los Angeles proper is around 40% of the county’s population.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

These numbers come out to 71.8-26.4, which is ~1% more D than the final result. Los Angeles proper is around 40% of the county’s population.

As I mentioned it's only enight final results, which explains the discrepancy.

Yup. It means VBM and GOTV efforts likely helped Trump in LA County.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Exhibit #2 for the case against a uniform R swing among urban nonwhites. (Seattle proper is 68% Non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, and 7% Black per 2019 estimates.) That Trump number is not very indicative of a R swing among Seattle’s Asian or Black residents.

I think you need to look at the suburbs like Tukwila, Sea-Tac, Kent, Federal Way, Renton, and South Seattle precincts before making this claim. Seattle is less White than most of South King County.

I was citing the Wikipedia article for the city of Seattle, which also says Trump won 8.44% of the vote in 2016... It’s definitely possible South King County nonwhites swung R, but it doesn’t seem like that happened in Seattle itself.

Seattle City:

Biden: 88.45%
Trump: 9.11%

I guess I stand corrected. Looks like Trump gained in Seattle proper by a similar amount as in Portland proper after all?

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Seattle swung to Biden, along with pretty much every municipality in King thanks to consolidation of the extremely high level of 2016 third party performance (lots of places this was 8-12% of the vote.

It's also clear that there were South Seattle minority-heavy precincts that swung to Trump, sometimes quite dramatically. Precincts that voted 80% + Clinton, with Trump <10% ended up 75-25 at worst, or 80-20/high teens. Also notice how traditionally very democratic SeaTac didn't crack 70% for Biden?

With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30

I don't know what disturbs me more- the fact that Mercer Island (1%) voted significantly to the left of both Bellevue and Redmond, or how 80% of the affluent Eastside is more D than 80% of more working-class/blue-collar South King County.

edit: I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think the part of Renton that's darker blue is more black? Auburn and Kirkland are definitely whiter than other South King County and Eastside suburbs.

South Seattle precinct swings imply that swings toward 45 in heavily black/Latino/Asian inner-city areas also occured here. We can clearly see in Skye's map that the International District (heavily Chinese, Vietnamese, and maybe Filipino) is a lighter shade of blue than the surrounding downtown area, or the more gentrified Capitol Hill and Central District to the east. Columbia City and Rainier Valley are also relatively anti-Biden compared to the rest of Seattle proper. Ballard and Wallingford being very dark blue doesn't surprise me.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

khuzifenq, yup, the darkest blue is also the Blackest part of Renton. I am too lazy to do it, but I have a creeping suspicion that the S. Seattle precincts that swung the hardest to Trump are New Holly and the other Hope VI communities down there. Also, Mercer Island has always voted to the left of Bellevue/Redmond. The fact that Redmond (and Sammamish!!!) is that close to MI speaks volumes to the impact of the Desi vote.

Paradoxically, I think Skyway (the bit of unincorporated King between Seattle and Renton - probably has the highest percent Black residents in the state) swung Biden?

Huh, I wonder why the housing project neighborhoods swung the hardest towards 45. I've heard isolated stories of East African gang activity/crime in those areas, don't know if that had any impact.

Never knew Mercer Island was a bastion of "Starbucks 1%er" liberalism. I figured it used to vote Republican along with Bellevue and Sammamish. Do you think Eastside Desi voters swung R like they supposedly did nationally, even if only by 1%?

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/04/us/elections/florida-election-results-by-county.html
NYT Miami-Dade precinct graphic from Nov 4

From 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-how-white-and-latino-americans-voted-in-2020/

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1325809061384888321

Comments are interesting.

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Dr. Mahesh Reddy
@maperencap
·
Nov 9
Replying to
@mcimaps

How much is door knocking a factor? I think asking for vote personally has a huge impact  because after all we are humans and respond positively when some one acknowledge our value.

yankeemet
@sla5sh55
·
Nov 9
Big factor. Ds and Biden did none of that during Covid while Trump never stoped. It was too late in cycle when they started door knocking and doing real@field work. Thats def a major factor, especially as attacks are left unrebutted.

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Shaun is Unapologetically Puerto Rican Flag of Puerto Rico #BLM
@pneumaz
·
Nov 9
Replying to
@mcimaps
 and
@Nate_Cohn

I think this just goes to show that people don't want to be lumped together as a "minority" and expected to vote a certain way. They want to be talked to as individuals. I have heard so many times from GOP voters of color that they put being American above being a minority.

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David Donovan
@DavidDonovanNC
·
Nov 9
Replying to
@mcimaps
 and
@Nate_Cohn

Serious question: Trump changed his residence to Florida this year and made his property in Palm Beach an extension of the White House for four years. Could that be part of why Trump did, comparatively, much better in Florida than he did in any other heavily contested state?

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

Los Angeles is surprisingly small too but many suburbs are overwhelmingly non-white and few heavily white tend to be your wealthy liberal types like Malibu.

Los Angeles proper is also very spread-out. A large portion of the city proper is in the San Fernando Valley. I’m curious what the numbers are for specific LA County suburbs like Pasadena, Glendale, Inglewood, Torrance, Long Beach, Pomona, etc. I heard some parts of Beverly Hills (rich white suburb) actually went for 45.