Non-whites are trending republican. Why is this happening?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

I don’t think there’s any question of whether nonwhites in the US can assimilate culturally. African-Americans were already culturally American to begin with- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  It’s just that many if not most Latinos look “mixed-race”, which means the ones who don’t already identify as “white” won’t be seen as white.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  

What.

Many defining features of African-American culture- AAVE speech patterns, names, soul food, overall religiosity and adherence to certain denominations of Protestant Christianity- reflect the community’s origins in the southern US. This isn’t rocket science.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  

What.

Many defining features of African-American culture- AAVE speech patterns, names, soul food, overall religiosity and adherence to certain denominations of Protestant Christianity- reflect the community’s origins in the southern US. This isn’t rocket science.

In the Southern US, maybe. From Southern Anglos, abso-ing-lutely not. And pretty much any other aspect of aggregate AA culture that you left out have little or nothing to do with Southern Anglos culture.

It's not rocket science that your comment was a tone-deaf hot take.

I didn't mean "from southern whites"....... but that's my bad for using that wording. What I probably should've said was that "black" culture is both Anglo and derived from the Southern US.

Nobody is saying that Hispanics can't be assimilated into American society and there is a strong case to be made that they already have. I'm just pointing out that all signs show the ethnicity known as Hispanics will establish themselves as an influential and independent minority in America in a similar fashion to that of Black Americans and not as an extension of the White Majority that many see Italians and Poles are today.  

I mean, by this I didn't mean that all hispanics would be seen as white. However a very significant portion will (and even already identifies as white I think). Why wouldn't people like Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz not be seen as people as white as the average white American?

Ted Cruz is half Non-Hispanic White on his mom's side, married to an Anglo white woman, and adheres to a distinctly "Anglo" denomination of Protestant Christianity. Marco Rubio is none of those things.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Maybe there's a better source of data available, but according to the exit polls on Wikipedia (which are sourced to Edison Research):

Asian voters:
2000: D+14
2004: D+12
2008: D+27
2012: D+47
2016: D+36

While everybody shifted in 2008 for obvious reasons, the Asian shift in 2012 is stunning. I dont see Romney as particularly anti-Asian compared to other Rs either. So, are there any theories on why Asians shifted so much? Was it the appointment of many Asians to Obama's administration? Or is it just too small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions?

1) Obama was a good fit for Asian voters. His life story of growing up with multiple cultures resonated with many of our experiences (both immigrant and native-born).

2) The birther controversy reflected the Republican Party's broader shift towards White Christian identity politics and nativism during Obama's tenure, which alienated many AAPIs and Muslims.

[Kamala's side hoe]

However, Black American cultural identity is something that was born out of the South and that makes it more similar to Southern White identities than other American White identities.  This isn't negated by a history of conflict

Some aspects come from the South, but not all. Some aspects have roots straight from Africa. Some practices were adopted from or influenced by Southern whites. Some cultural elements have little do with the South (these are the more common ones, in my own personal experience).

Just out of curiosity, which are those?

Basketball and hip-hop music are the most obvious ones. You can delve further into street art, house music, Black Pantherism, the Ethiopian influences in the DC area. The list goes on and on.

Basketball and hip-hop aren't really defining hallmarks of African-American culture at this point. Hip-hop has been appropriated to the point where it's become a general cosmopolitan urban thing. Outside the US, I would argue they're both seen as elements of mainstream American culture, at least among young people.

One reason I distinguish between "black" and "African-American" here is because most black people I know IRL aren't descended from former US slaves. A lot are of Caribbean or recent African origin.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Non-Whites as a whole are probably trending R simply because the Black share of the non-white vote is decreasing as the Hispanic and Asian population increases.

Back in 1988, Black voters were 65% of non-white voters, and there has been a steady decline in that share.

1992: 65%
1996: 60%
2000: 59%
2004: 54%
2008: 53%
2012: 51%
2016: 47%

2020: 43% according to Catalist. This is probably the biggest factor.

An often forgotten stat is that a higher percentage of black Americans are of Carribean/African origin than say 10-15 years ago, which is probably why the black vote is moving very slowly but surely right. These groups are usually more socially conservative and tend to be more open to voting Republican though I'm sure they still vote Dem at least 75-25.

I'm guessing the 2016->2020 shifts we saw in heavily black areas may have been more due to the ADOS community (think Kim Klacik but for a presidential election?)

As for polls, honestly, we are too far out for ethnicity-specific polls to mean anything. If all three groups trend GOP in 2020, then perhaps we're seeing a trend. But as of right now, I'm very skeptical.

The question is: how much of this was due to COVID (the service and tourism sectors are disproportionately black, Latino, Asian, and mixed-race, and IIRC disposable income among non-white and lower-income Americans actually increased during 2020 thanks to stimulus checks + the CARES Act), and how much of this was a reaction to the complex and diverse ways left-of-center white folks process and respond to their group privillege, both within the D coalition and in broader society?

On the other hand, white liberals often feel motivated to act in racially egalitarian ways to distance themselves from these same negative stereotypes of whiteness. The thinking may go something along the lines of, “Those white people are ‘bad,’ but I want to see myself as a good person.” However, committing to antiracist action is not a straightforward solution, as it is not always effective at staving off the negative emotions that come with acknowledging a legacy of racism. Moreover, this strategy can fall short in actually addressing racial inequality, as it does not alway prioritize the practical needs of people of color over the emotional and psychological needs of white antiracists.