Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[cvparty]

I wonder if Amy Klobuchar doing so well in Florida among Iowans means that she's bound to do well in Florida among Flordinians.

florida’s democratic electorate isn’t comprised of wealthy white retirees

[cvparty]

i can't start my homework until this is over >:(

[cvparty]

there's clearly way less final votes than first votes reported so why is everyone freaking out???

[cvparty]

So, according to Bernie, these are the Iowa results:

1) Bernie
2) Pete
3) Warren
4) Biden
5) Amy

Warren in 3rd is undisputed.

those numbers only account for ~40% of the state. on the other hand, buttigieg’s campaign claims they have 77% (i think) and that they won, but didn’t release any numbers. honestly this is just such a hot mess

[cvparty]

So, according to Bernie, these are the Iowa results:

1) Bernie
2) Pete
3) Warren
4) Biden
5) Amy

Warren in 3rd is undisputed.

those numbers only account for ~40% of the state. on the other hand, buttigieg’s campaign claims they have 77% (i think) and that they won, but didn’t release any numbers. honestly this is just such a hot mess

Sanders' campaign released data for 40% where they have accurate details & it was mixture of rural & urban areas. Nowhere are they claiming that it for the whole state.

It was in response to Pete who was trailing (In 3rd place) when initial reports came, claiming victory.

The DNC should announce the result & get this mess over with.

doesn’t mean he won though. not saying i’m believing anything, but we really just have to wait until tomorrow

[cvparty]

if i *had* to guess the order right now i would predict:
1) buttigieg
2) sanders
3) warren
4) klobuchar
5) biden
1/2 and 4/5 are iffy though

[cvparty]

https://twitter.com/bhalle87/status/1224558925946793985?s=20
Pete’s Comm Director just casually tweets out the login pin.

We should nullify the results for that reason...

Check the rounding on the sheet as well. He rounded 3.2 up to 4 delegates despite the directions asking them to do the opposite.

it's because there are 8 delegates total?

[cvparty]

https://twitter.com/bhalle87/status/1224558925946793985?s=20
Pete’s Comm Director just casually tweets out the login pin.

We should nullify the results for that reason...

Check the rounding on the sheet as well. He rounded 3.2 up to 4 delegates despite the directions asking them to do the opposite.

it's because there are 8 delegates total?

Wouldn’t they have done a coin toss for that last delegate? I’m not saying you are wrong but just interested to know as to why Pete would pick up that last candidate

coin flips happen when multiple candidates have the same number of supporters, but there's only one last delegate available

[cvparty]

Pete must have had a good ground game, at the very least he overperformed quite a bit.

biden underperforming and klobuchar being just too short in support obviously helped buttigieg a lot with realignment

[cvparty]

Polk, Story and Scott are biggest remaining votes left. It could go to Sanders if he wins Polk

Buttigieg and Sanders are very close in Polk right now, so it's unlikely to make much difference.

depends which precincts remain though. if urban, then it helps sanders; suburban helps buttigieg

[cvparty]

i know the data isn't complete yet, but here are some maps showing pete vs. bernie's support

[cvparty]

Working out the math based on NYT's predictions for outstanding SDEs gives these numbers:
- Pete 27.2%
- Bernie 25.7%
- Warren 18.9%
- Biden 15.0%
- Klobuchar 12.2%
- Yang 0.7%
- Steyer 0.2%

The most significant figure is Biden's. Right now, NYT projects him to fall just short of the fated 15% line, by literally one SDE. If that holds, then he won't qualify to win any at-large or PLEO delegate, and will be left with only a couple district delegates. If he does any better than expected, he'll end up with a healthy share. That really seems to be the only suspense at this point.

I can't remember the exact figures, but initial counts were suggesting that Sanders and Buttigieg each were looking at like 12 or 13 delegates to Biden's 8. If Biden falls and ends up getting like 2 delegates out of IA, does this mean there's a chance Sanders (and Buttigieg) could each net like 15 delegates over Biden out of IA?

For what it's worth, Biden on a good day in SC where Sanders remains viable wouldn't net more than 20-25 delegates overall...

i would nut if biden fails to break 15%

[cvparty]

Weld got a delegate.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovBillWeld/status/1224858024646410240

someone claimed that it’s the first time in iowa history that a challenger has won a delegate against a presidential incumbent? hmm

[cvparty]

apparently people don't understand population distribution
https://twitter.com/dickophrenic/status/1224832698243567617

[cvparty]

nvm i just saw the deval patrick numbers lmao

[cvparty]

i get human error and all but this really is a hot mess
https://twitter.com/ThomasIsOnline/status/1225170867577085954?s=20

[cvparty]

So did Pete win the final alignment votes or not??? WTF?

if we correct the steyer/patrick precincts and give those votes to sanders/warren then no

[cvparty]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225170450822635523

no

[cvparty]

Buttigieg seems to be slowly chipping away Bernie's "Final Vote" margin. He could end up overtaking him.

pretty much all of des moines is in, so most of the outstanding polk vote is in suburban territory which should help buttigieg. but also bernie-leaning counties like woodbury, pottawattamie and story still have a decent number of oustanding votes (not to mention the satellite caucuses too)

[cvparty]

omg i took a nap and i missed all of THIS wtf

[cvparty]

remember when people were joking that we wouldn’t get an iowa winner until after new hampshire aHAAHA

[cvparty]

uh there’s still one missing precinct from warren?

[cvparty]

I should also observe in the interest of honesty that under my preferred voting system for races that are supposed to yield a single winner--statewide IRV--I don't think it's at all clear that Bernie would have won. A strong argument can be made based on the candidates' ideologies and presentations of themselves to the voters that, had there been a final-round binary choice between Bernie and Pete, Pete might in fact have won fairly comfortably. But, unlike the actual first-round and final-round popular vote totals, we simply don't have those numbers.

yeah i agree wholeheartedly. the whole primary process is so flawed without ranked choice voting and with such a large field of candidates :/

[cvparty]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225806317740285952?s=20

The suburban realignment continues...

population growth too. dallas's growth is crazy for a midwestern county

[cvparty]

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1226357866568863744

Yes that's absolutely fine

........................

THEN WHAT IS THE POINT OF ANY OF THIS

maybe he’s saying that they’ll correct the errors and update the results, but the original worksheets can’t be physically altered?