California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Canis]

How would Lee do in a D vs D race? Are Porter and Schiff really DINOS?

Neither one is a DINO or close. Schiff is pretty much a lockstep Biden Democrat - you'd struggle to find any issue where he's out of the party orthodoxy, although most people would define him as somewhat moderate especially on foreign policy. Porter usually aligns herself with Elizabeth Warren pretty heavily, but outside her stances on big business her votes trend more towards the Dem mainstream.

It's that the de Leon 2018-Lee 2024 voters call them DINOs. If Schiff or Porter wins, Ro Khanna will eventually launch a primary challenge.

huh what? not a single Lee supporter I know has called Schiff or Porter DINOS. Schiff takes a ton of corporate pac money but hes not a DINO just a mainstream establishment Democrat. Porter is also far from being a DINO. The vast majority of elected dems take corporate pac money in order to be a DINO you have to be exceptionally moderate or conservative, like Joe Manchin or Dan Lipinski.  Theres no world in which Ro Khanna would attempt to primary either Porter or Schiff hes got his eyes on a statewide run most likely in 2026 for one of the row offices or maybe Governor.

[Canis]

What if Steve Garvey gets the CAGOP endorsement?

He can't the CA GOP convention was Sept 29-October 1st. I wouldn't be so quick to count out Eric Early as the leading GOP candidate he got 15% when running for AG last year and he has the backing of Larry Elder and several county parties already and hes raised a decent amount of money. I do agree that Bradley will probably only get a few points but Garvey isn't a very strong candidate, this is his first time running for public office and with a state as big as California hes gonna need to raise a lot of money and get his name out fast our primary is only 5 months away now. He also hasn't been playing baseball for decades hes pretty unknown outside of baseball fan circles which isn't exactly a big voting bloc that has a high turnout rate. I don't see him unifying the GOP vote if anything I think its more likely that him and Early split the GOP vote down the middle with the other various no names taking a couple percent each making a runoff between one of the three Dem congress people in the race more likely.

[Canis]

Will de Leon 2018 voters be a large supermajority of Lee 2024 voters?

De Leon and Lee have different coalitions and this election is 6 years later, their will be many voters who weren't old enough to vote or didn't vote in 2018 that will vote in 2024. Keep in mind 2018 was a midterm election and 2024 coincides with a presidential so turnout will be far higher I don't think you can really compare them. Feinstein won black voters in 2018 by a pretty healthy margin and they will be a big chunk of Lee's base but so will young people and progressives who voted for KDL. So id say of those who voted in 2018 and 2024 those who vote for Lee will be pretty evenly split between Feinstein and KDL.

[Canis]

What if Steve Garvey gets the CAGOP endorsement?

He can't the CA GOP convention was Sept 29-October 1st. I wouldn't be so quick to count out Eric Early as the leading GOP candidate he got 15% when running for AG last year and he has the backing of Larry Elder and several county parties already and hes raised a decent amount of money. I do agree that Bradley will probably only get a few points but Garvey isn't a very strong candidate, this is his first time running for public office and with a state as big as California hes gonna need to raise a lot of money and get his name out fast our primary is only 5 months away now. He also hasn't been playing baseball for decades hes pretty unknown outside of baseball fan circles which isn't exactly a big voting bloc that has a high turnout rate. I don't see him unifying the GOP vote if anything I think its more likely that him and Early split the GOP vote down the middle with the other various no names taking a couple percent each making a runoff between one of the three Dem congress people in the race more likely.

Your Republican grandpa knows who he is and grandpa votes. Don't get me wrong, given the lean of the state and the time it's been since Garvey was a high profile figure he has no chance of winning but let's not pretend he is just a garden variety former MLB player. In the 70's and 80's he was pushed as the face of MLB.  His fame and popularity was probably equal or greater than that of Herschel Walker if you are looking for a jock turned pol comparison. Of course his personal life came crashing down late in his career as he became tabloid fodder for having affairs with at least three woman at the same time and getting two of them pregnant. He also lost a nasty custody battle with his ex wife. Bottom line I think Garvey has enough name recognition he should easily finish as the top Republican and that he has a good chance of finishing top 2.

My grandpa is a life long democrat who has never voted republican in his entire life lol but your grandpa sure. I just haven't seen the data to back up what your saying. The video where he announces his run has less than 700 views on youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMy_U4ZzhjY&pp=ygUMc3RldmUgZ2FydmV5 Just because he was a popular star in the 80s and 70s doesn't mean hes relevant at all today or people want him to be a US Senator. In the one poll hes been included in so far hes running even with Bradley and Early and 22% of voters have a unfavorable opinion of him compared to just 19% who have a favorable one and 60% of voters have never heard of Garvey. I don't think the comparison to Hershel Walker makes a lot of sense either, Walker entered the race pretty early on and had Trumps backing. Georgia is also not California. This is an open primary Garvey has to appeal to Democrats, Independents and Republicans, and hes running against 3 Congresspeople whove raised a combined total of 44 million $. I only think hes got a real shot at making the GE if Butler enters the race and the democrat vote gets further divided. Garvey has far less time than Walker did to raise a lot more money than Walker needed to and get his name and message out there before march.

He can't the CA GOP convention was Sept 29-October 1st. I wouldn't be so quick to count out Eric Early as the leading GOP candidate he got 15% when running for AG last year and he has the backing of Larry Elder and several county parties already and hes raised a decent amount of money.

Early has $87,000 COH as of the last FEC filing date. That's bad for a third tier congressional candidate nevermind someone running statewide in California.

Early still raised $500k since entering in June, hes got a base of small dollar donors and he nearly made the AG general last year raising a little less than what hes raised in two months while running for senate. He also was outraised ten to one by Hochman in that race. Early has this network of donors because of the experience he has running for office which Garvey doesn't. I think Garvey probably gets more votes than Early but Early will still probably win a significant enough of the republican vote to prevent any R from advancing to the top 2.

[Canis]

Barbara Lee is based, she voted against Patriot Act and Iraq war.

Shes the most anti-war congressperson in American history and she's got my vote.