French presidential election, 2022

[Canis]

On that note, Hidalgo did propose a left primary last week. And everyone pounced on her to say that she way only proposing it because her polling numbers were so bad (which isn't untrue) and that no way were they going to take part and that the only acceptable left unity candidate would be themselves.

Which alltogether shows how unserious the left actually is about even trying to win this thing, and the degree to which their only objectives would be about setting themselves up as the leader of the rapidly diminishing left for the legislatives.

(an in, a primary would probably require some pre-emptive agreement about seats; as opposed as to the position of force of being "the biggest left wing force" on 9% of the vote or whatever Jadot or Mélenchon will end up getting)

That's really interesting and a Left-wing Primary is a really good idea its a shame it won't happen because this race will come down to Macron vs either LePen Zemmouror or Pécresse without the left united.

This reminded me of what happened In my congressional race a few weeks ago, my candidate Shervin actually proposed doing something similar he approached the other two progressives in the race about uniting behind one of them after holding a debate and then like a straw poll among progressive voters in the district. One of the candidates whose Yang gang-affiliated said she had absolutely no interest in the idea from what I heard and the other guy said unless she agreed to it he wouldn't do it. This is a shame but because theirs 2 Republicans in the race and we've been having such a successful and aggressive ground game I'm still confident we'll make the runoff and I'm confident we have a good chance of winning this thing, but it just goes to show left-wing disunity is an international phenomena lol. Coalition building is an incredibly important part of winning elections especially in the jungle primary system used in California and France hopefully the left will understand that soon .

[Canis]

Taubira drops out:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220302-christiane-taubira-withdraws-from-french-presidential-race

Wonder if she'll endorse and who it would be. Hidalgo should also drop out and probably Rousell. The left needs to consolidate behind Jadot or Melenchon Their the only two with a shot at making the runoff.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1504933737489997827
Melenchon in third place. only 3.5 points behind Lepen now

[Canis]

I'm going to vote for Pecresse.

Why?

[Canis]

I voted earlier today, after a very long line-up which took an hour and a half to get through. Cookies for anyone who can guess who I voted for.

Jadot?

[Canis]

Polling summary time:

Macron - almost all firms have him on 26%, but a handful push a little higher. None below 26%, none above 28%.

Le Pen - more diversity here: a high of 25% and a low of 21% with most hovering in between the two, generally slightly tilting towards the lower end.

Melenchon - between 16% and 18% with most settling on 17%.

Zemmour - French firms pretty much all have him on a functional 9%, but foreign firms who have had a go show higher figures.

Pecresse - French firms have her on either 9% or 8%, but those foreign firms who have had a go show lower figures.

Jadot - between 4% and 5%.

Roussel - between 2% and 3% with the consensus being a functional 3%.

Lassalle - between 2% and 3%.

Hidalgo - 2%.

Dupont-Aignan - between a functional 2% and 3%.

Poutou - 1%.

Arthaud - microscopic.

What I'm mostly getting here is that there is a lot of herding going on and that even moderate polling errors could upset a lot of apple carts if they were to occur.

An interesting metric measured by the two top pollsters, Ifop and Ipsos, is the 'vote certainty' - about a quarter or a bit less of those certain to vote were still not completely settled on their choice. Macron and Panzergirl have their vote well tied down, with 80-90% of their voters certain of their choice for them; Zemmour and Mélenchon also have pretty solid votes, with 75-80% of their voters certain of voting for them in the end. On the other hand, Pécresse and especially Jadot have a good chunk of their current voters still not completely certain (around 65-70% of Pécresse voters are certain, 45-55% of Jadot voters are certain).

The last big Ifop poll for Le Monde showed the following second choices of those who were uncertain of their choice:



Macron and Mélenchon would appear to be those who stand the best chance of benefiting from Jadot and Pécresse's wavering voters (although Panzergirl can hope that some Zemmour hesitators vote for her strategically). The same poll also showed the low-high ranges if half of the hesitating voters switched to their second choice:

Macron 25-28.5%
Panzergirl 21-24.5%
Mélenchon 15.5-19%
Zemmour 8-10%
Pécresse 7-9.5%
Jadot 4-6%

Jadot?

Congratulations!

I eagerly await my cookies lol

Also good choice of candidate my knowledge of French politics is limited but Jadot seems like a good guy and isn't a bigot he seems like hed make a great president it's unfortunate he'll probably only get 5%.

If the runoff is Macron vs Melenchon who do you think you'll vote for?