So, when can we expect cases/deaths to drop to a level we can probably start safely holding in person indoor events again?
Probably either in May or June or possibly never again depending on the COVID variants and the voracity of their spread.
According to the Bloomberg vaccine tracker if we keep vaccinating at the same rate we are now ( which is unlikely it will probably continue to increase) we'll hit 75% completely vaccinated in early December which will be enough for stuff to go to relative normality according to Fauci.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/We're currently giving 1.4 million vaccine doses a day. The goal according to, Fauci is to get it to about 2 to 2.5 million a day which would considerably speed it up but probably still wouldn't be till Late October early to mid-November.
Once we hit around like 55 to 60% vaccinated we'll have enough for a low amount of herd immunity and that will probably be in July or August is when we hit most things will be able to open up but people will still likely have to wear masks and social distance. But as Matt Rose said if stuff with the variants gets worse it will be delayed until the third booster shot is available to be distributed.
I'm really hopeful about the way things are looking I know we still got several months ahead of us but the light is at the end of the tunnel. My mom just got vaccinated last week and since I'm back to work I'm in the next tier of people who can be vaccinated so I should get my shot late this month or early March.