AFC East: Patriots (1)
AFC North: Steelers (2)
AFC South: Colts (3)
AFC West: Raiders (4)
AFC WC1: Bengals (5)
AFC WC2: Titans (6)
NFC East: Cowboys (4)
NFC North: Packers (1)
NFC South: Buccaneers (2)
NFC West: Seahawks (3)
NFC WC1: Falcons (5)
NFC WC2: Eagles (6)
Colts (3) beat Titans (6)
Bengals (5) beat Raiders (4)
Seahawks (3) beat Eagles (6)
Falcons (5) beat Cowboys (4)
Colts (3) beat Steelers (2)
Patriots (1) beat Bengals (5)
Packers (1) beat Falcons (5)
Seahawks (3) beat Buccaneers (2)
Patriots (1) beat Colts (3)
Packers (1) beat Seahawks (3)
Patriots (1) beat Packers (1)
USA Today has the Colts pegged for last in their division - but the AFC South to me is a division which could be like how the NFC South had been in the past - worst to first happening a lot and no real standout team that is utterly head and shoulders above the rest. They had your same SB pick though with the Pats 19-0 (which I don't think will happen). Why are you confident?
The AFC South is largely a crapshoot. While the defense may be iffy, when Luck is healthy, I have a lot of trust in the team. That's the main thing to consider. Luck hasn't been healthy the last two years, and their record is a reflection of that.
Another thing to consider is that Ballard replaced Ryan Grigson, who was legitimately awful in his tenure with the team. Although his impact won't be immediate, I believe he did a great job with the draft and has made a few small acquisitions to supplement the defense and positions of need.
The last thing to consider is that the division is extremely weak. Besides the Colts, the team I have the most amount of faith in is the Titans (I actually have them in the playoffs too), but they do not have the experience that the Colts have going deep into the playoffs/regular season. But in general, I think Murray will regress and I'm not as excited about their offensive weapons as most people, although I acknowledge that their defense is stronger than the Colts.
I also feel like the Texans are severely overrated; they have no top-tier skill players on offense (Hopkins and Miller regressed last year) and their defense has little support for Clowney and Watt. Their QB situation is also just a mess and I can't see Savage or Watson leading them into the playoffs. I know they did last year, but the Titans and Colts have both improved a lot since then. And the Raiders playoff win was a fluke b/c of Carr's injury.
While the Jaguars may be okay too, they still have Bortles as their QB, no alternate and an overall weak roster. I'll wait for them to have a solid season or a significant roster change until I peg them in the playoffs.
