Washington state megathread

[bgwah]

Can someone enter the polls for Governor and Senator into the database?

[bgwah]

SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%

Can someone add these numbers to the database?

[bgwah]

Whelp today I officially moved to the Bay Area... It is with sadness that I renounce my Washington citizenship (although I am waiting until after the election to officially register in Cali). I will be wishing you well in the greatest state of the US. God bless Cascadia!!

-CultureKing

Did you decide grad school was the solution to your quarter-life crisis?

Or did you actually get a job down there?

[bgwah]

Whelp today I officially moved to the Bay Area... It is with sadness that I renounce my Washington citizenship (although I am waiting until after the election to officially register in Cali). I will be wishing you well in the greatest state of the US. God bless Cascadia!!

-CultureKing

Did you decide grad school was the solution to your quarter-life crisis?

Or did you actually get a job down there?

Somehow I managed to blunder my way into my dream job. Quite honestly its one of those situations where I am terrified that some horrible (wonderful) mistake has been made. Although it should be noted that I am working for a non-profit, which means that I won't be getting rich anytime soon.

Are those all the details we get?

[bgwah]

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-poll-Koster-has-narrow-lead-over-DelBene-in-1st-District-170117796.html

Koster 46%
DelBene 42%

...with the policy questions not so great for DelBene.

(SUSA)

Obama and Romney are tied in that district? Not buying it.

I'm sure Goldy will have to gloat if DelBene loses. Not that he understands it's safe to cut of 3-5% from what DelBene gets to see what Burner would have gotten.

[bgwah]

I was wondering when they were going to get to Washington.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/washington-state-womens-rights-and-big-cities/

That... wasn't very interesting or informative.

[bgwah]

So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

[bgwah]

So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

Yes, sadly. With Tim Sheldon holding the balance of power.

And Litzow should be re-elected, if the primary is any indication.

I don't know how strong Hill will be in 2014. Springer might be able to knock him off.

[bgwah]

Hill probably could be beaten with the correct candidate. Picking up the 28th once Carrell leaves is also a must.

On the whole it's a pretty bleak future though.

It's hard to predict this sort of thing, though. A year ago, I doubt any of us realized the 5th would be a possible Democratic pick-up, for example. Who knows what we might win.

If by "bleak" you mean we probably won't have 30 seats any time soon, then I guess you're right. We'll have to wait and see if any more suburbs trend D like the Eastside did in the 00s.

Interestingly enough, the 37th and 43rd are two of the fastest growing districts in the state right now. So Seattle might actually be slightly underrepresented as the decade progresses, while in the past it it tended to be over represented due to slower growth than the state (and in a few decades, population decline).

[bgwah]

http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/simgad/15936881353639972056

Just... lol

[bgwah]

McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."

[bgwah]

You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

Are you dumb or just trolling? Most of us have spent the last four years thinking McKenna would win. It's only since August that we've started thinking differently, given the primary results and numerous polls showing Inslee ahead, not too mention McKenna's less than impressive campaign thus far. And despite all of that, all of us will still acknowledge he has a good chance.

It's nothing personal... You just don't know what you're talking about. Most posters know better than to get into too much detail over our state, given how knowlegable our WA posters are. Even the Sam and Al types avoid it. Lewis tries, and he's usually not wrong, just pointing our something thats so obvious to the WA posters its not even worth mentioning, like how Whitman=students (no offense Lewis, you know we love you.)

But anyway, don't think you can get away with dismissing our analyses as partisan. They're about the only non-partisan thing in here!

[bgwah]

It was coming in some way:

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Political-staffer-taking-heat-after-controversial-Tweet-171871901.html

Somebody meemed McKenna's photo.

lol. Especially at Baumgartner.

[bgwah]

The new WA-06 voted +16 Obama in 2008 and +5 Murray in 2010.

So basically it matches statewide polling, which suggests Inslee would win by a margin similar to Murray's in 2010 if the election were held today.

[bgwah]

The northern part of Kitsap County (including Bainbridge Island, where Inslee lives) was also moved from WA-01 to WA-06. It's not a terribly populated area, but it could possibly be giving Inslee a small boost in the new WA-06.

[bgwah]

I agree, he attacked a lot and came off as too aggressive, but I felt he had much more substance/came off as more knowledgeable about the issues and addressed the questions more than Inslee, who I felt said the same talking points almost every question.

Seems to be working.

[bgwah]

Michael Baumgartner endorsed I-502 today: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/10/03/2319292/gop-senate-hopeful-latest-to-endorse.html

The Columbian, which IMO is usually pretty right-wing, also endorsed it on Sunday. I know The Olympian and The Seattle Times have as well. The News Tribune did not. Not sure about other papers off the top of my head.

Haha. Someone's desperate.

[bgwah]

wtf Slog

[bgwah]

Pretty sure all these posts are made up

The last few would seem to confirm that hypothesis.

Fooled the PI! http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/04/no-hack-just-fact-mckenna-takes-over-the-stranger/

[bgwah]

I figured legalization would have plummeted by now. Maybe it will actually pass!

[bgwah]

Any particular reason charter schools will finally pass? Or is it just that the pro-side has way more money?

[bgwah]

The anti-R-74 ads begin airing on Monday.

The Eastside was carpet bombed with Reject R-74 signs over the weekend. :/

[bgwah]

Any chance those cop killer commercials will drag down Ferguson? It reminds me of the sleazy ads that allowed McKenna to beat Senn in 2004.

[bgwah]

Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.

The minimum wage ad is certainly better than McKenna's dumb "Jay Inslee hates firefighters!" ads.

[bgwah]

"Democrat" Tim Sheldon has endorsed Bill Driscoll in WA-06.

Kilmer is still going to win, right?