Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Does this make Tim Sheldon a member of the Minority Coalition Caucus?

[bgwah]

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread, which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: Image Link

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.

In other words, the WA GOP needs Ann Davison to run for Governor in 2024.

Don't be stupid, WA GOP! Don't nominate another loser like Loren Culp. Nominate a brave and stunning woman like Ann Davison who can win in a landslide in 2024.

[bgwah]

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread, which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: Image Link

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.

In other words, the WA GOP needs Ann Davison to run for Governor in 2024.

Don't be stupid, WA GOP! Don't nominate another loser like Loren Culp. Nominate a brave and stunning woman like Ann Davison who can win in a landslide in 2024.

Why would she even run in the first place because if she loses the Governors race, I presume she'll probably lose the next election for City Attorney unless Thomas-Kennedy or another wacko gets in the runoff in 2025.

All the more reason to run for Governor in 2024!

Ann Davison will be the Charlie Baker or Phil Scott of WA.

The WA Dem Party is actively being taken over by a coalition of communists and anarchists. Washington is NOT a communist state. It is a LIBERAL state. And Ann Davison is going to teach radical Democrats a painful lesson, both in November 2021 and November 2024.