Hillary vs. Roy Moore (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Hillary vs. Roy Moore (search mode)
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Poll
Question: who do you vote for?/who wins?
#1
Hillary/Hillary
 
#2
Hillary/Moore
 
#3
Moore/Hillary
 
#4
Moore/Moore
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 67

Author Topic: Hillary vs. Roy Moore  (Read 4387 times)
bgwah
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*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

« on: May 10, 2005, 10:31:40 PM »

Hillary landslide.

I really don't see how any person who doesn't even go to church could vote for Roy Moore, even a Republican. Washington and probably Oregon, having more than 2/3 of their populations free of the church, would overwhelmingly vote Hillary if they were no 3rd party options... They would both crack 60% democrat, maybe even 70%...
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bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2005, 09:15:20 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2005, 09:22:55 PM by Jesus »

Hillary landslide.

I really don't see how any person who doesn't even go to church could vote for Roy Moore, even a Republican. Washington and probably Oregon, having more than 2/3 of their populations free of the church, would overwhelmingly vote Hillary if they were no 3rd party options... They would both crack 60% democrat, maybe even 70%...

2/3? I'm pretty sure that the census reports 18% or so as non-religious in both, which Nevada roughly ties. The majority of the population still goes to church.

In Washington, the CNN exit poll says 34% attend weekly, 38% occasionally, and 25% never. An additional 3% apparently cannot speak English.

For whatever reason, they did not poll this in Oregon.

I'd say 60%+ in Washington, and near-60% in Oregon.

The census cannot ask questions related to religion--it is illegal.

The majority of people do not regularly attend church. Yeah sure, everyone once and while some go for a wedding or maybe for Easter, but religion plays little role in these peoples live. Only abuot 1/3 of the population actually goes to church on a regular basis.

Some people consider themselves religious even though they never go to church. For example, most French are "Catholic," even  though few actually go to church.

People who rarely or never go to church and those who simply say their "Christian" becuase they believe in God or used to go to church when their parents forced them too are far from the religious right. You would have to go church and be a member of the religious right to even seriously consider voting for a madman like Moore. Considering Hillary's bad rep its hard to imagine more Libertarian Republicans voting for her, but against Moore!? It's very possible. And of course many church-attending people vote Democrat anyway.

My map, hillary wins 374-164


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bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2005, 08:07:16 PM »

Disagree with my map if you will, but I was being very generous giving Moore most of the states I gave him.

Outside of Alabama, Mississippi, and Utah, he could easily lose every state. Even Wyoming.

Wyoming is NOT "Roy Moore-conservative." They have a (popular!) democratic governor, so yes, a Democrat winning Wyoming is possible.
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bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2005, 08:13:57 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2005, 08:15:52 PM by Jesus »

^You assume Hillary's reputation among a few ultra-conservatives will be that of the entire nation and remain the same by 2008.

She has name recognition, is an actual politician, and while her politics are far from that of Wyoming, Moore is literally insane. If he somehow got into a position of large power, you can expect mass murder and death camps. He's crazy, and the vast majority of Americans will know what a psychopath he is by the end of a campaign.

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