gordon smith vs. barack obama.

[memphis]

Phil in fine form here once again.

Walter as well.

[memphis]

You make me laugh Phil.

Explain your hard on for me. I'm being serious, too. You want to constantly get on my case? Hey, at this point, more power to you, pal. I just want to know what it is about me that draws you in. And make it something good, too. I don't want some lame "You're easy to target!" nonsense. I'm sure you have something better in your arsenal. Ouch. Inappropriate word usage? You know, considering your explosive background?

Phil, the reason people "target" you is that you make state your predictions with such certainty.

Here's an example of a wrong prediction I made regarding Dole's senate seat:

Her race to lose. She probably won't, though.

Here's the kind of prediction you post:

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

In the end, Texas was about a point more GOP than PA was Dem. Anyhow, you invite people to make fun of your predictions when you're all uppity about them in the first place.

[memphis]

Here's an example of a wrong prediction I made regarding Dole's senate seat:

Her race to lose. She probably won't, though.

Here's the kind of prediction you post:

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

In the end, Texas was about a point more GOP than PA was Dem. Anyhow, you invite people to make fun of your predictions when you're all uppity about them in the first place.

So....you give one example of your prediction and one example of mine. I'm sure you've never been cocky about a prediction especially when talking to a hack troll. For whatever reason, Iosif has been on my case since he got here. You're not even as bad as he has been.

At the same time that I make those cocky predictions, I'm one of the first people to admit when I'm wrong and send my best to the winners. I'm not looking to be showered with praise for that; I would simply like people to remember that before they go batshit on me.

Show me an example of me being "cocky" on a political prediction. It's really not my style.  Admitting your wrong does not exempt you from being made fun of. If you act all haughty and then get proven wrong, people are going to make fun of you. That's just how the world is. Try some humility for a change.

[memphis]

The only reason I said anything in the opinion of Keystone Phil thread is all the taunting and accusation of cowardice from the FF side. I would have much rather not said anything at all. Although I don't like the word "stupid," predicting a Santorum win was pretty out there given the polling. Ditto for claiming PA would be remotely competitive in the recent presidential election. The only reason McCain made much a big push there late in the game was that PA is a large state that doesn't have early voting. He had to hope for an outright miracle in the one state where his goose wasn't already cooked. I suspect I would have caught a lot of flack if I had made a big fuss about the Dems were going to pick up Hagel's seat and had a chance at Texas in the presidential race. The margins are simiar to Santorum/Obama in PA.  It's not so much the predictions (outrageous as they are) as the pompous attitude that accompanies them.

[memphis]

While JJ and Phil should have known better, they were just buying into their campaign's hype. McCain himself pushed the improbable notion of PA as a swing state. Also, I don't like this discussion of any state never voting x or y. Things change in many unforeseen way. Sure, PA may vote for a conservative candidate at some point in the future. What we can say right now is that it won't at the moment.

[memphis]

Yes, it was hype that PA was a close, battleground state. PA has a slight D lean versus the national average. When the Dem is up several points nationwide, PA is safe. All the polling suggested it and the returns confimed it. You may as well have said that TX was a close battleground state. Was Obama foolish to spend time and money there? Perhaps, but he is usually a very cautious fellow, and he couldn't very well thumb his nose at PA when McCain was visiting so frequently. Also, what conservative did Pennsylvanians reelect in 2008?

[memphis]

Why would you think 2008 would be so different for PA? The polling certainly didn't suggest it. You got me on the AG race, though I don't think an election for that office is comparable to a statewide Senate, governor, or presidential election.

[memphis]

It doesn't really matter what kind of Dem you are in PA. You will do a few points better than nationally. It was true for men as different as Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Jimmy Carter. Obama may not have won PA by 10 without the current crisis, but he wouldn't have won nationally by as much either. He may have only won nationally by a few points and 5 or so in PA. It's significant significant that the last poll showing McCain up in PA was in April (long before the economic collapse). You have dozens of polls before then, half of whose margin of error favors McCain, all showing an Obama lead. That's very significant statistically.

[memphis]

Allow me to summarize Phil's last post:
Polls don't mean anything. Even when you have dozens and they all more or less say the same thing. Even though this was true even before the financial meltdown, it was the economic collapse that allowed Obama to win. What matters in my predictions is that I know people. Lots of people. Important people. And they thought this was going close. And they were worried about it.  And that's not anecdotal. I know I've been wrong in the past because of this line of thinking. Furthermore, I like controversy, so I'm going to continue to make predictions by on my same non-anecdotal sources even when this contradicts more scientific methods. So lay off me until the next election when I'll inevitably be wrong again.