OH-9 megathread

[Rjjr77]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

[Rjjr77]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

[Rjjr77]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up

[Rjjr77]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up

Not if the redistricting amendment passes next year

Yes especially if they do. A Redistriting amendment would benefit the East and hurt marcy, you couldnt create a district that is compact and pro dem for her, and a close race would include wood which brings latta into the mix, as much as folks talk about marcy the latta name is way stronger, she loses to bob. Easy