OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

Renacci is reporting over $2 mil. raised since he launched his campaign.

In Local News: Cincinnati and Columbus are both having municipal primaries today. Two WFP candidates running for Council are expected to get crushed in Columbus, while there's a very ugly Mayoral election building up in Cincinnati.

2 million in Pledges, not actual money

I'd take him at his word. As it mentions in the article, he doesn't have to release any fundraising reports until January of '18.

I won't because pledges and fundraising are different, he could have pledges for general election funds included into that as well, or pledges for donations that are above the limit and he'd never be able to collect

[Rjjr77]

Hearing Whaley on Monday

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Thing went way more sideways in the Youngstown local elections that I realized. Every candidate endorsed by the Mahoning County Democratic Party lost their primary.

The mahoning valley is changing quickly

[Rjjr77]

It's Gravis, so grain of salt, but Dewine at 31% in the GOP primary is bad news for him.

[Rjjr77]

Thing went way more sideways in the Youngstown local elections that I realized. Every candidate endorsed by the Mahoning County Democratic Party lost their primary.

The mahoning valley is changing quickly

You think it's really an extension of the Trump phenomenon? Or is it more corruption associated with specific high ranking Dems in Youngstown?

A combo of the both, more than some blue collar dems have left, at the same time corruption has caused splits among some of the remaining members

[Rjjr77]

Mike DeWine killed a Fair Redistricting amendment yesterday. Republicans in the State poll as favoring fair districts, so this may bite him.

Interestingly, his main opponent Husted has been a frequent and vocal supporter of redistricting reform for some time.

[Rjjr77]

Officially in, not challenging Mandel for Senate.

I think he's the best in the field right now. Both parties.

[Rjjr77]

OH-GOV 2018 is Lean R. Either Husted or DeWine could win. However, since the Ohio Republican Party is changing post-Kasich, do Republicans distance from Kasich or do they align themselves with his record to win some of Kasich's blue-collar base?

Kasich has no "blue collar base"

[Rjjr77]

Mike DeWine killed a Fair Redistricting amendment yesterday. Republicans in the State poll as favoring fair districts, so this may bite him.

Interestingly, his main opponent Husted has been a frequent and vocal supporter of redistricting reform for some time.

Fully independent or just with strong guidelines, a la Iowa?

I think the bill he put forward several time was for at least one member of the minority party on the apportionment board had to approve the map.

[Rjjr77]

So a pretty weak protection, since it'd still be up to partisan electeds.

That's if you think there is such a thing as non-partisan (unless computers do it, there isnt)

[Rjjr77]

Whaley's official, y'all.

Probably the second best candidate, after Cordray. Good to see (almost) A-list candidates jump in. Hopefully Wisconsin dems also get a clue.

Maybe it's cause I lean the opposite way but I think she's a weak candidate headed for a 3rd place finish in the primary.

[Rjjr77]

Sorry to all fans of TD, but Cordray ain't running.

Is he out officially?

[Rjjr77]

Sorry to all fans of TD, but Cordray ain't running.

Is he out officially?

Can't find anything to confirm, so no.

I assume he's out as well but I thought he'd said something

[Rjjr77]

No, sorry, I was just prognosticating.

It's long been reported he'd have to get in by May to clear things up.

June 8th at the latest I'd say.

[Rjjr77]

Is Cordray strong? I thought he was a little damaged goods. Definitely think he has less crossover support than Generic Democrat (D).

He has his flaws (who doesn't) but none of the other candidates are very strong. He immediately becomes candidate 1A for democrats if he gets in (early enough). The worst thing for democrats might be if he gets in, but too late. That would jumble the field and leave him hurting for cash.

[Rjjr77]

State Senator Frank LaRose is officially running for Secretary of State, creating what will likely be an ugly Republican primary for the office as he faces off against House Majority Leader, Dorothy Pelanda.

I expect LaRose to win there and beat Clyde, Clyde should be hoping for a Pelanda win.

[Rjjr77]

State Senator Frank LaRose is officially running for Secretary of State, creating what will likely be an ugly Republican primary for the office as he faces off against House Majority Leader, Dorothy Pelanda.

I expect LaRose to win there and beat Clyde, Clyde should be hoping for a Pelanda win.

That primary is going to be u-g-l-y. Whoever emerges will be battered.

Eh... I don't view Pelanda as a heavyweight so I don't know how ugly it gets down to it. I could see Pelanda even slipping to the point of taking someone's LG spot and stepping out in Jan.

If I had to rate the ugliest primaries in OH this cycle
R-OH 16 is going to be an a bloodbath in a slaughterhouse
D- Gov is shaping up to be the second ugliest, with no tier 1 candidate
R- Treasurer has all the hall marks of getting nasty, could be the nastiest one of the bunch in reality.
R- Gov comes in lower simply because it's more tiered
 R SOS rolls in after that

[Rjjr77]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

Indeed. He's on the Kasich-Portman wing, which no current statewide official really is besides those two.

So he's a conservative?

He's to the left of Taylor, DeWine, Husted, and Mandel. I would call him a moderate.

Dewine is arguably a moderate himself, staunchly pro-life sure, but voted for a path to citizenship, assault weapons ban, affirmative action, against drilling in Alaska. Dewines no where near as right as you think he must be

[Rjjr77]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

Indeed. He's on the Kasich-Portman wing, which no current statewide official really is besides those two.

So he's a conservative?

He's to the left of Taylor, DeWine, Husted, and Mandel. I would call him a moderate.

There are very few moderate Republicans in the Ohio legislature.  The Kasich-Portman wing is A) well to the right of Husted and B) extremely right-wing on economic issues.  Just because a Republican is polite and uses non-threatening language doesn't mean they're a moderate (Patton Oswalt has a great bit on this).

Depends on what issue, Husted's far right on the 2A but with issues like voter id and redistricting he's been very much in the moderate camp. Kasich and Portman are seen as more moderate than they are (kasichs nice guy BS facade in the presidential, Portman as a pretty upstanding and decently nice person and pro-gay marriage)

I actually consider LaRose more Husted than Kasich

[Rjjr77]

LaRose is pretty moderate, no?

Indeed. He's on the Kasich-Portman wing, which no current statewide official really is besides those two.

So he's a conservative?

He's to the left of Taylor, DeWine, Husted, and Mandel. I would call him a moderate.

Dewine is arguably a moderate himself, staunchly pro-life sure, but voted for a path to citizenship, assault weapons ban, affirmative action, against drilling in Alaska. Dewines no where near as right as you think he must be

DeWine has moved quite a bit to the right since re-entered OH politics, IIRC.  He may not be a fire-breathing wingnut, but he's definitely not a moderate either.  He's fiercely pro-life, is horrible on voter's rights, supported Santorum in 2012, and has been a staunch Trump supporter, opposes gay marriage, and is pretty conservative on a number of economic issues.  He's only a "moderate" compared to someone like Josh Mandel or Jim Jordan, as opposed to being an actual moderate.

Dewines more like Kasich in that who knows what he actually believes, but there is no way Republicans in ohio think Dewine is conservative

[Rjjr77]

I really hope DeWine wins the primary, but looking at the financing so far, and Husted's minimal disadvantage in polls despite not being anywhere near as well known, I have my doubts.

Back in 2014, before Fitz blew up, a Dem party operative told me there was no way we could take out Husted because he was too likable and had his name up on everything. It certainly didn't help that Turner was his opponent, but you're not supposed to say that sort of thing.

I'm a Husted fan and I think he's in the best position.

I figured ds would be hoping for taylor

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It's more than career politician, Husted wed all agree fits that role to. It's that Dewine has no belief structure, by all accounts he was a moderate in the senate, now he attempts to style himself a conservative, what does he actually stand for, other than being DeWine. It's the same problem many had with hillary, Kerry and others.

[Rjjr77]

Dettelbach is inching toward officializing his campaign launch. From what I know, he's been getting around, but mostly on the down-low. I'd wager he's been holding off so he can announce a lot of cash on hand at launch.

Still think it's a mistake. Let's not forget that even his own campaign spelled his name wrong.

In governor news Husted picked up the Ohioans for concealed carry endorsement today.

[Rjjr77]

Democrats are pushing an unlikely source — Jerry Springer — to run for governor in Ohio

Aren't rumors of Springer being recruited for Governor a quadrennial tradition in Ohio?

Seemingly, he told a friend of mine who was pushing him he wasn't running

[Rjjr77]

Am I the only one the who thinks that the Dem Gov Field in OH is pretty good right now?

I dont think it is, not compared to the much stronger GOP field