MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[UncleSam]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

[UncleSam]

I would imagine most of those undecided voters would come home to Ds and again, 49/50 is a high water mark for Hogan at this point. Both Ds only polling at 36/37 seems more of a name rec thing at this point too.

100% agreed on the name rec part, but if Hogan is polling at 49/50 that means that the D not only needs the undecided voters to come home but needs to pull away a bit of Hogan’s support as well.

This should be eminently doable, thus why it is Likely D. But it’s not the home run-slam dunk that it would appear to be in a vacuum.