I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.
Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.
Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).
She voted twice to convict Trump. She is DOA in a Republican primary.
If you had read my post you’d have noticed that I specifically said she’d only have a chance if DeSantis were to become the nominee / presumptive nominee. I agree that in a Trump world she’s donezo in an R primary.
Though it is an interesting question: is she more donezo in an R or a D primary in 2024, regardless of the candidate? I think she’s got a better chance if DeSantis is the nominee in an R primary, and a slightly better chance in a D primary if Trump is the R nominee. She’s got somewhat poor chances regardless, though, which is a shame - she’s one of the best senators if not the best. I will fully support her regardless of the party banner she runs under in 2024.