Honestly this boils down to a few things:
1. Abortion fades as a key issue, likely because Rs pump the breaks on passing crazy bans and significantly soften their national language on it (this is unlikely because it would involve Rs being not crazy)
2. Biden continues to struggle to speak in coherent sentences or even worsens in the months to come
3. Inflation stays at 9%+ on an annual basis
4. R senate candidates pick up fundraising post Labor Day and stop making as many gaffes down the stretch
5. Some other unforeseen event causes Dems / Biden to drop in popularity again (ACA premium hikes in October, China attacking and capturing Taiwan with little to no US resistance, etc.)
Any combination of the above would help Rs. It’s actually hard to envision things getting significantly worse for Rs than they are right now but you never know, where there’s crazy there’s always the potential for further insanity. Betting against Oz making further gaffes seems like a losers’ bet to me.
Also, people mad about ACA prices will certainly vote for Republicans, who have a solid plan to expand and protect it.
Sadly that’s not how peoples brains work. It is how rational people with deduction skills think, but that is the clear minority of the American electorate.
